菜鸟求拍砖~~agru 11

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11
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
“Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."

In this memo, the mayor of the town of West Egg drawn a conclusion that the town's landfill will be made use of longer period than predicted. The conclusion is based on a series of surveys that residents has been recycling more aluminum and paper than ever before and prediction that the amount of material recycled will increase as well as the claim that over ninety percent of respondents would do more recycling. This proposition appears plausible at the first glance, however, a close view indicates several logical fallacies seriously undermine the validity of the reasoning, rendering the conclusion highly suspect.

In the first place, the author depends on the assumption that the recycling of aluminum and paper will continue to increase in the future. But the evidence about the situation in previous years is insufficient to convince me that the trend will continue. Even if this trend will go on, unknown amount of recycled aluminum and paper in the past makes this comparison vague and unwarranted. It is entirely possible that the amount of aluminum and paper is so little for total garbage that doubling amount is till insignificant. Unless the author offer detailed statistics to demonstrate the effect of recycling is dramatic, the conclusion is worth doubting.

In the second place, the author commits the fallacy of cause-and-effect relationship. Because no evidence provided in support of the conclusion that doubling charge for garbage pickup will lead to the amount of material recycled further increase. (没想到其他可能性…)In addition, without the information about the size and randomness of sampling, the survey in which these respondents are representative of the whole residents is groundless. Maybe only small part of residents who care for recycling are willing to answer the questionnaire. Moreover, it is absolutely possible that the questionees formulate false report on that they will do more recycling. after all, no method verifying these statements are presented. There are perhaps many changes happen in the future, therefore, they may not put what they promise into practice.

Finally, the recycling habits of West Egg residents are not the only factor affecting how quickly the landfill will reach capacity. Clearly, the causes of limited space of the landfill vary from many factors. It is completely likely that the high development of industry produce quite a lot of waste which are unable to be recycled. The action that the author attempt to extract a general cause is dubious.

It could be safely concluded that the assertion in the memo is lack of supportive evidence. to strengthen the argument, the author must provide detailed and thorough survey about recyclable material take up large part of garbage, and accurate analysis about that the residents did and will do more recycling work. Otherwise, this curtly-drawn conclusion is nothing but an un-thoughtful consideration.

字数470左右
觉得自己语言形式太单一了，而且想反例很有局限……
请大家帮助呀~~O(∩_∩)O~