14年秋季提纲互改小组 - Argument 6

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6) Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
相关argument：无
请根据指引列出提纲并点评楼上组员的提纲或直接回帖参与讨论。
指引网址：https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1777374-1-1.html

max940623UID: 3559548

一、分析题目中的Argument，按照上面的范例，列出claim、data并解释连接claim和data的warrant。
(一)Claim: decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.  
(二)Data或evidence:
(1) local hunters' report that deer population are declining
(2) coincide with global warming
(3) global warming caused the sea ice to melt

（三）Warrant:
1. 猎人的report可信（调查准确度+客观度）
2. global warming = region warming (整体局部)
3. warming与declining同时发生=因果关系 （同时性因果错误）
4. 就算是global warming导致鹿数量下降，一定是海面冰块融化阻碍迁徙（不充分条件）

二、根据题目的要求列出提纲以及描述要讨论的主要内容:
思路：134各一段。2不那么重要，在第二段开头提一下
提纲：
TS
Grounding on the suspicious report from the hunters, supposing that the simultaneity between global warming and reduction of deer's population equals to causation, and then combining these two with the assumption that the global warming will decimate the deer only by melting the ice across their migration area, the author accordingly suggest that the decline in deer's number results from the inability to conduct migration. However to reach a sound argument, some specific evidence should be introduced.

ts1
The first evidence that author should provide is about the reliability of the report.
一方面报告准确性的证据没有，可能是猎人调查时正好错过了大批鹿群。
另一方面报告者保持客观的证据没有，可能是猎人夸张猎物减少来博取同情。

ts2
Even if we assume that the global warming trend could naturally apply in Arctic region we focus on, the argument is still lack of the proof on the causal relationships between global warming and decline in deer's number.
开头让步攻击一下2.
3 没有证据说明同时性代表因果性，可能是其他原因如人为破坏或者水污染导致了鹿群数量下降。

ts3
Given that the additional evidence for previous two assumptions is provided, another hypothesis that no factor other than the block of the migration patterns results in the deer's decrease is untenable.
就算是全球变暖导致下降也没有证据说明是冰块融化阻碍迁徙导致的。一方面，全球变暖可能不足以让冰块融化到无法通行的地步或者是其他地区融化迁徙路线没有融化。另一方面， 同样是全球变暖冰块融化，可能是水位上升淹死鹿食用植物导致的鹿数量下降（这个反例自认为不错因为正好用了原文的内容）

max940623UID: 3559548

您要的全文:lol
Grounding on the suspicious report from the hunters, supposing that the simultaneity between global warming and reduction of deer's population equals to causation, and then combining these two with the assumption that the global warming will decimate the deer only by melting the ice across their migration area, the author accordingly suggest that the decline in deer's number results from the inability to conduct migration. However to reach a sound argument, some specific evidence should be introduced.

The first evidence that author should provide is about the reliability of the report. On one hand, the hunters' response may not be accurate enough since they may not go around the whole area and miss the majority of the deer group. On the other hand, the hunter may not be objective enough to be the conductor of this survey. It is probable that they wish the overstatement on the deer's decrease could provoke the social sympathy on their life, and earn the benefit for themselves. Any reasoning based on this report is unsound unless there is supplementary proof on its reliability.

Even if we assume that the global warming trend could naturally apply in Arctic region we focus on, the argument is still lack of the proof on the causal relationships between global warming and decline in deer's number. Because the only simultaneity between them doesn't suffice to prove the causation, other explanations including human intervention and water pollution could lead to reduction in deer as well. Additional evidence should be presented to eliminate all the alternative explanations above until we could accept this thesis.

Given that the additional evidence for previous two assumptions is provided, another hypothesis that no factor other than the block of the migration patterns results in the deer's decrease is untenable. Firstly, the melting of ice doesn’t necessarily leads to the blockage of the deer’s migration path since the situation could be the slight melting fails to ruin the road and the complete one occur in other area. Furthermore, the rise in water level caused by the ice melting could drown the plants on which the deer feed, thus serves as the true reason for the decline in deer population. As a result, there should be evidences proving that the melting of ice really obstruct the deer from migration and this blockage is the only reason that stems from global warming and caused the reduction.

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

max940623 发表于 2014-11-17 22:01
您要的全文
Grounding on the suspicious report from the hunters, supposing that the simultaneity ...

汗 我要的全文是 修改提纲后写的

我在博客 115楼 写了一个提纲 你可以参考下


6) Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.








Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
相关argument：无
请根据指引列出提纲并点评楼上组员的提纲或直接回帖参与讨论。

指引网址：https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1777374-1-1.html


一、分析题目中的Argument，按照上面的范例，列出claim、data并解释连接claim和data的warrant。
(一)Claim: decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.  
(二)Data或evidence:
(1) local hunters' report that deer population are declining
(2) coincide with global warming
(3) global warming caused the sea ice to melt

不太明白你为什么要将（2）和（3）分开来
另外这两句话也是data
They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.



（三）Warrant:
1. 猎人的report可信（调查准确度+客观度）
2. global warming = region warming (整体局部)
3. warming与declining同时发生=因果关系 （同时性因果错误）
4. 就算是global warming导致鹿数量下降，一定是海面冰块融化阻碍迁徙（不充分条件）

二、根据题目的要求列出提纲以及描述要讨论的主要内容:
思路：134各一段。2不那么重要，在第二段开头提一下
提纲：
TS
Grounding on the suspicious report from the hunters, supposing that the simultaneity between global warming and reduction of deer's population equals to causation, and then combining these two with the assumption that the global warming will decimate the deer only by melting the ice across their migration area, the author accordingly suggest that the decline in deer's number results from the inability to conduct migration. However to reach a sound argument, some specific evidence should be introduced.

ts1
The first evidence that author should provide is about the reliability of the report.
一方面报告准确性的证据没有，可能是猎人调查时正好错过了大批鹿群。
另一方面报告者保持客观的证据没有，可能是猎人夸张猎物减少来博取同情。

注意这里的讨论要指出具体需要什么证据 你提的这两点都没问题 就是措辞是要注意



ts2
Even if we assume that the global warming trend could naturally apply in Arctic region we focus on, the argument is still lack of the proof on the causal relationships between global warming and decline in deer's number.
开头让步攻击一下2.
3 没有证据说明同时性代表因果性，可能是其他原因如人为破坏或者水污染导致了鹿群数量下降。

不建议用even if这种老G的句型
这里需要关注的是当地的气候变化   以及当地的冰块有没有融化
然后再讨论有没有其他原因导致鹿群数量下降
我觉得原argument的思路是 全球变暖与冰川融化同步 因此全球变暖导致融化 而融化导致鹿群无法迁徙 从而导致数量减少
而你却直接说causal relationships between global warming and decline in deer's number. 这样就忽略了整个论述的思路 跳过了中间环节




ts3
Given that the additional evidence for previous two assumptions is provided, another hypothesis that no factor other than the block of the migration patterns results in the deer's decrease is untenable.
就算是全球变暖导致下降也没有证据说明是冰块融化阻碍迁徙导致的。一方面，全球变暖可能不足以让冰块融化到无法通行的地步或者是其他地区融化迁徙路线没有融化。另一方面， 同样是全球变暖，可能是水位上升淹死鹿食用植物导致的鹿数量下降。