Argument14 [决战aw] 第7次作业 by Ocm..

oceanmasterUID：2594404

ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
字数446
时间01:00:19
2009/2/7 21:40:04

In this memo, the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center ( GTGC) predicts a fever of home-growed vegetables and advises GTGC to expand its stock of vegetable seeds to make a profit in following spring. To make his predict more convincing, the owner takes a national survey and the popularity of a local gardening magazine for example. However, a series of logical flaws weaken his efforts and make his assertion suspicious.

First and foremost, the national survey can't help to support owner's idea. In this national survey, investigater conducted that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets last month. Even if we assume the survey is telling the truth, many factors remain to be discussed.

First of all,We notify that this report is limited in a short period of time-last month. We have reasons to suspect that the survey is seriously affected by some short-time event such as a food-safety crisis or a scandal in supermarkets. We doubt that people's attitudes against supermarket vegetables will change soon with time passing by.

Even if we admit that people's attitudes against supermarket vegetables are firm and will not change soon, we can not simply conduct that people in our town will do the same thing. Maybe our residents have cultivated a firm trust in the local supermarket so that they will not be affected by the national emotion. Another possibility is that the residents, living in a suburban town, usually fulfill their needs for vegetables in specialized stores that have nothing to do with supermarket. In both occasions will people in town not affected.

Although we assumes that local residents do have a supermarket and they do share national emotion and decide not to buy supermarket vegetables anymore, still evidences are needed to say they will choose to grow vegetables themselves. They may just turn to local vegetable stores.

Furthermore, the popularity of magazine Great Gardens doesn't provide sufficient surpport for the owner's opinion. The popularity of this magazine may be caused by other reasons. The magazine was sold well may because it was publishing a series of gardening stories that seemed to be well accepted. It can also be that the stand is very popular and every magazine it sells will be sold out. At last, we can not ignore the possiblity that the stand only bought very few sopies of Great Gardens so that its being sold out seems just natural.

To sum up, for reasons listed above, this memo is based on unsupported assumptions and suspicious conducts and consequently renders doubtful. To better illustrate his memo, the owner must collect more convincing example and conduct the causal relationships more clearly.