0910G【Try Best】第一小组 argument65 by GG86_Fly

GG86_FlyUID: 2641450

Based on the fact that the best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheeses in the newest store last year and the result of a recent survey by a cheeses magazine that its subscribers had an increasing preference for domestic cheeses, the president's suggestion that the best way for the company to improve profits is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses seems reasonable. However, carefully examine the president's reasoning, we may find that the argument contains several flaws, which render the suggestion questionable.

Fist of all, the fact that domestic cheeses were sold well at the newest store doesn't indicate that customers prefer domestic cheese rather than imported one. Maybe the stock of imported cheeses was not sufficient at the newest store last year, so some customers had to buy domestic cheeses instead of their favorite (favourite?) imported ones. If it is the case, it could explain why the best-selling cheeses were all domestic ones at the newest store, and this fact would lend little support to the president's assumption that customers prefer domestic cheese rather than imported one.

Even if customers would like to buy domestic cheeses at the newest store, the president could not easily make a conclusion that the domestic cheeses were sold well at all other stores. Maybe the best-selling cheese was imported one at some other stores. The sale at the newest store can only reflect the preference of local customers. The president cannot assume that all of their stores have the same sale as the newest one. Without considering sales of other stores, the president cannot convince us that discontinuing stocking imported cheese in all of the stores is a wise decision.

Furthermore, the result of the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine is also unconvincing. The statistical reliability of the survey is really doubtable for the reason that the president provides no evidence which can show that whether the number of the subscribers is statistically significant or how many of them have participated in the survey. As we know, the smaller the sample, the less reliable the result is. Also, the participants are just subscribers of one magazine, so they might be not necessarily representative of all customers. Lacking detail information about the survey, the president cannot convince us to believe in the result of the survey--let alone drawing any broader recommendation based on it.

Finally, the president fails to consider other local competitors which also sell domestic cheeses. There is no evidence to ensure that the customers would choose their stores rater than other local cheese stores. If they discontinue stocking many of varieties of imported cheese, they would have no vantage to compete with other local stores. For the customers, if they could only choose domestic cheeses and the prices at all stores are almost the same, and then there would be no difference to decide which stores to buy cheese. Without weighing the proposal factor, the argument’s claim that the president’s suggestion is the best way to improve profits is wholly unconvincing.

To sum up, unless the president gives the detail information about the survey and other telling evidences to support his assumption that customers had an increasing preference of domestic cheeses, he cannot convince us that his suggestion is wise. To further evaluate his suggestion, he should also substantiate that customers would like to buy domestic cheeses at their stores rather than any other local stores, otherwise we cannot accept his suggestion as the best way to improve profits.


1.
没有考虑新店地方奶酪买的好的其他原因。
2.
就算新店卖得好，不代表其他店也卖得好而不是进口的好（经不起推敲的类推）
3.
不准确的调查
4.
没有考虑其他影响因素,就认为这个是”best”的决定。

yjwn1987UID: 2495078

不好意思改迟了。你交作业真勤。