1006GKiKi的备考日记--努力不一定会成功，但不努力一定不会

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

The second one:

The author reckon that credit derivatives and other risk sharing financial instruments actually are very risky and we should stop using the commonplace qualifier about the universal benefits of risk sharing. During asset price booms, financial markets generate the perverse incentives banks can maximize their profits by selling as many junk mortgages as possible to borrowers who cannot conceivably repay the loans. After that, something must go wrong in our risk-sharing world. Sharing risk can under certain circumstances be inherently destabilizing.

To explain his point of view, he provides two arguments.

The first is Hyman Minsky’s, which is partly agreed by author. He creates the financial instability hypothesis – a theory about the impact of debt on the financial system. Minsky treats banks and investors as the most important economic actors. He classifies investors in three categories. The first are hedge investors, they are risk-averse, and can meet their payment obligations out of current cash flows; the second category are speculative investors, who can do the same in the long run, but not necessarily in the short run. The third are Ponzi investors, someone who takes on new debt to meet current obligations, and hopes to finance the ever-rising debt through higher asset prices. The critical part of Minsky’s theory is that during an economic boom, an increasing number of investors gradually move from the first category to the second and third. In a Minsky economy, instability is not due to some external shock, but is inherent in the system itself, that’s why we need to justify heavy regulatory interference.

The second one is Raghuram Rajan’s. In his theory, investors, who are eager to outperform the markets, take on two different types of risk during a boom. The first is a so-called “tail risk”, these are high risks with a very low probability of occurring, which offer high rewards. The second risk is herd behavior, as investment managers do not want to underperform their competitors. During an asset price boom, investors are eager to take on the low probability tail risks, in the knowledge that others do the same. If the crash comes, they have at least not underperformed their competitors.



Comments
In April in 2007,
subprime crisis has already started to appear, although most of us may not have imagined it would become such a huge financial crisis that actually affected our lives. There are a lot of theories about the reasons of this financial crisis. Actually, I agree with what the author said. Risk-sharing is not risk eliminating, the hiding risks would finally blow up in the end throughout a wider area.

The first theory is very interesting. He divided investors into three levels, less risk-averse from up and down. We actually have this feel when we invest. We usually can bear more risks when the market is rising. Under this circumstance, the regulations should do more to intervene to the market and supervise the institutions in this market.

The second theory, two risks are taken during the boom. These two feelings are what we can hardly prevent even in our lives. We should always warn ourselves about the existence of these two risks and try to reduce them in our investment.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

12.21 comments

As a student in finance, I heard a lot about the global financial crisis, whether the reasons, the experience, the circumstance now or the future. Actually, there are so many reasons to explain it that even the experts of financial fields or the specialists inside the companies cannot make it clear. However, this article is not talk about how this financial crisis happened or why.

By comparing with Japan’s bubble years, the author tries to solve one problem in the article: what will be like after the recession? Although things seem to become better and better, the scenarios are not that promising.

On the surface, the situations about financial institutions are improving, especially for Goldman Sachs. Some 15 months after staring into the abyss, Goldman has raised billions of dollars from investors including Warren Buffett; received, and repaid, $10bn in government aid; and raked in $12.5bn in profits for the first nine months of 2009. Its shares trade at more than double their lows of a year ago and many of its 30,000 employees expect a bumper payday to wrap up the year. On the other hand, the American people are not that lucky. The unemployment rate in American reached over 10% in October, which is the highest during 26 years after the World War II and people have less money to consume. As a country whose more than two thirds GDP depends on consuming, it’s really not good news for America.

Maybe just like what is showed in this article, it’s easy to arrive at the “New Normal”, but it’s really hard to return the normal originally.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

12.18 Comments

From Dec.6th to 18th, the world’s eyes turn to Copenhagen, a small nation in Northern European. The climate change conference 2009 is processing there.It was partly because the environment becomes worse and worse in the report from the IPCC and there are leaders from more than 189 countries attended in this conference, trying to make an agreement. It was also partly a growing acknowledgement of the fact that 2009 represents more or less the last chance to achieve an agreement, if this agreement is to be approved and ratified in time for it to come into force after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

Like what is showed in this article, the environmental disasters become much more often and unpredictable, the climate changes become serious and the ecosystem becomes weaker. However, still like what the author said, the climate problem is not about technologies or economics, it’s about politics. During the Copenhagen conference, all the leaders are arguing with each other, trying to defend their own interests. It seems to me that this conference is a mirror to show that we human beings are all selfish when things involve our own interests.

The most comforting thing about this conference may be that people all over the world realize the serious environmental problem now and try to do something to improve it.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

这星期正式进入考试周~下午刚考完试~sigh~作业又没做~明早补吧~

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

12.22   Comments

Of course this bill seems perfect for the American common citizens. It obliges everyone to have health-insurance, tens of millions of Americans currently without coverage will now be able to get it, and many tens of millions more, who have insurance but fear losing it through redundancy or ill-health, will have those worries lifted from their shoulders. It also seems as a win-win situation for Obama, whose first health-care bill submitted passed out of the Senate and the common citizens can avoid what they are afraid of——the health problem. During this financial crisis period and with the above 10% unemployment rate, this bill likes rain to the arid fields.

However, what I’m cared about is the enforcement of this bill. After it is actualized, how many benefits will actually flow to the common people? Maybe it’s too early to say anything or judge this bill now; we still need time to believe this bill will bring real benefits to the people in America.

等考完这个阶段的试一定要补充下共和党和民主党两个党派的鲜明作风问题 倾向性非常严重 很有趣的说

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

12.20 Comments

When things relate to the political field, everything becomes complex, especially it refers to the hottest debate in recent years: the relationship between China and America.

Sometimes the human condition is a pathetic one. Two great countries, nearly two billion people together, but all we can do is worrying about who will dominate whom. Why can't we choose to be at peace? Why can’t we sink the ships, bury the guns, and open the borders? Because someone refuses to let it go and tries to spoil the whole thing.

It’s clear that America doesn’t want a powerful China and this counter is at its peak under the financial crisis. In the climate conference in Gopenhagen, the observations of America always aimed at China. This expresses at least something about this situation.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

明天考试 考完回来补作业~哭~

12.23&24 Comment

In contemporary world, people cannot live without money. So money becomes something people all care about. That’s why they created this topic. In my opinion, the executives may be paid too much but we need to call on government’s attention to solve it rather than criticize it in public frequently.

Executives in bailed out companies should be paid fairly, but such compensation should be deferred until the company pays back the government. At that point the markets can then work on a level playing field again. If the return to profitability was genuine, the talented executives shouldn't need long to generate the cash to pay their foregone pay.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

113# 月光迪迪

没有啊没有啊~任何时候开始都不会迟的~只要你开始做了~

12.25 Comment

In the rebuttal statements, both sides present more insightful debates. However, I really think that we need to have a relatively fair heart about this topic. In my point of view, both of the two writers may be right as they focus on different aspects about the topic about executive payment. Mr Kaplan argues that the most powerful criticism of executive pay-that bosses get upside and no downside-is simply false. He took CEOs as a group lost roughly 40% of their wealth in 2008 as a proof. While Nell Minow argues that top executive compensation was a major cause of the financial crisis. She bases her conclusion on two "outlier" examples, Angelo Mozillo and Aubrey McClendon, that she calls "anecdotes".

Financial crisis is an event affecting the environment and the life around all common people. But according to their evidence and perspectives, we can find that they are just talking different fields about this topic. So they may be both right.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

12.19 Comments

The art market is far away from our public eyes to some extent: we are not familiar with the ways auction houses worked, we have little knowledge about the value of different art works, and also we always wonder why these art works worth so much.

In this article, the author reveals the mysterious veil of art market. It describes the current situation about the art market, the rising of contemporary arts works and how to sell them. The art market influences by the financial market. Since the financial crisis in 2007, all the markets are dropping and art market is of no exception. There are also scandals in the art market.

There is no mysterious of this market actually, it’s just another financial market, or politics.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

12.27  Comments

In that former “Suspended animation” article, we learnt the art market in general. We saw the current situation in this market, the contemporary art works are booming these days and how to sell and buy this art works in the market.

This article demonstrates more details about art market. It tells us another corner of favorite art works in this market----the old-fashioned, cluttered and sentimental ones. It’s easy to understand. As few master pieces of art works are available because both collectors and museums tend to hold on to what they have, prices of older works keep going up as more people have money to spend. On the other hand, the number of old works can only be reduced rather than increased. We can find it’s a good investment to keep an eye on arts as the price can be times up after a few years. Of course, we should study deeper and be cautious if we want to treat it as an investment.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

大家真的好积极啊 一天没来帖子就沉成这样了~ 我看完了今天的文章 鉴于明天要考试 先请个假吧~明天回来补~

The way this physicist describes the beauty of a theory, “Simplicity, symmetry, elegance, and power” are just like the beauty of an article.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

啊~恨死自己了 怎么就这么没自制力呢~

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

好词好句

But today it is becoming radioactive, as governments step in to rescue failing companies and ordinary people are forced to tighten their belts.

Pay is often not tethered to performance.

demotivate

sanguine

The growing pay of executives has to be balanced against the growing difficulty of their jobs, particularly as turnover in the boardroom increases.

It is not hard to understand this shared outrage:

the multiples increased exponentially

mediocre

public-sector(公共部门)

many bosses and bankers continue to make out like bandits—or so lots of people think.

credit crunch（信用恐慌）

Such bold opening statements raise questions galore.

thrash out（反复思考）

These criticisms have been exacerbated by the financial crisis and the desire to find scapegoats.

The debate about executive pay, though never cool, is particularly hot at the moment. Workers have been squeezed by the recession. Unemployment is approaching 10% in the United States and much higher numbers in many other countries. Numerous governments are planning to deal with their rising deficits by freezing public-sector pay. And yet many bosses and bankers continue to make out like bandits—or so lots of people think.

consistent with

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.3 Comments

This is an article talking about the real valuation of our lives, which is very impressed and self-examination. By the way, Mr Zhou is an extreme famous writer in contemporary Chinese literary world. His works always make people think about their lives.

In this article, he talks about the attitudes we need towards life between moral value and personal gain. In a world full of industrial lives, we can find that more and more people become ruthless, selfish and caring about the personal gain.

However, Mr Zhou thinks he need to have a "returning to self" attitude towards life. The new life attitude encourages one to follow the call of one's inner self to advance one's interest in a topic of one's own choice and stop where the same inner self demands it. Life becomes beautiful not because of your making sacrifice or your possessing wealth, but the enhancement to its richness which you have succeeded in making. In his point of view, innovation is very important and I agree with him.