1006GKiKi的备考日记--努力不一定会成功，但不努力一定不会

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

先留个地~

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.5 Comments


When talking about business schools, many people also think about the bright future it brings after the students graduate from them. The top business schools such as Havard, Stanford are really popular among whether students or working people.

During the financial recession, what should be taught in business schools become another hot topic all over the world. People all accuse that it’s bussiness schools cause this global recession. It is not hard to understand this shared outrage: students graduate from good business schools have better jobs and better salary, looking bright.

People may think that only financial fields need business students, however, in my perspective of thinking, the leadership, teamwork spirit and many other things taught in business schools are also useful in many other industries.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.7

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

我就是一悲剧。。。。。

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.10 Comment

Summary
1. Concept of uncertainty
Uncertainty, arises out of the kaleidoscopic shifting of numerous volatile variables, is clarified as randomness where we cannot know the probabilities by economist Frank Knight. The volatile variables can be consumers’ preferences, regulation, technology, etc.

2. Concept of risk
Risk is defined as randomness with knowable probabilities by Frank Knight.

3. Differences between risk and uncertainty
From the concepts of these two words, the radical difference lies in whether the probabilities are known or not.
Uncertainty can’t tell the probabilities, while the probabilities of risk are known.
To be more specific, risk arises in simple yes/no choices, where ex ante probabilities to the occurrence; while it became uncertainty under messy situations, because the variety of possible actions is nearly infinite.
What’s more, the distinction also hinges on the range of possible actions they can employ to achieve a desired outcome.

4. Method, how to deal with the uncertainties.
In the world full of harsh Darwinian pressure, there is a simple rule, adapt or die.
The ability to deal with the uncertainties is a significant element in a company’s comprehensive strength.


The article provides two ways to handle.
One is adaption, which is composed of strategic anticipation and organizational agility.
The other is uncertainty absorption.

1)Adaption.
① strategic anticipation

What is strategic anticipation?
Strategic anticipation is a cognitive process of selecting the appropriate mental model for a situation and revising it when necessary.

The method is to gather real-time data from multiple sources, look for patterns from the present and past, and select mental models to represent the situation.

But models are not always right, they may vary according to each objective situation.
Even the best models may outlive its utility as circumstances change, so managers should always be open to the possibility of abandoning their model.

② organizational agility
What is organizational agility?
Organizational agility refers to an organization’s flexibility in undertaking new activities or abandoning old ones in the light of changed situation.


The challenges adaption poses
① balance the defense and offence.

Defense means to establish the core business as the most critical link, because the solid core business ensures that the company to stay in the game long enough to seize golden opportunities; while offence means to make other investments as some other ways to bring in money, for the company will be vulnerable if the core business suffers long-term depression.

② manage a portfolio of internal initiatives.
If a company always has back-up plans, it is likely that the company will act quickly when facing unexpected situation.

2)Uncertainty absorption
What is uncertainty absorption?
It is resilience toward unexpected events, good or bad, even if it is not predicted.

How to absorb uncertainty?
Blocking and tackling steps, such as lowering fixed costs or increasing operating efficiency.

Comment
1.uncertainty and risk

Uncertainty, is defined by economist Frank Knight as randomness where we cannot know probabilities, while risk is clarified as randomness where we can know probabilities.
From my perspective, uncertainty is the accumulation of risks.
Many simple yes/no choices forced the decision maker to balance in order to achieve the desired outcome. Managers face uncertainty while investors face risk, because to achieve a desired outcome, what the investors need to do is to make a simple choice, to invest or not, but what the managers need to decide is much more than that, such as how to improve the ability to absorb risk, how to make up if uncertainties happen, etc.


2.adaption versus absorption

Chinese companies always prefer mix both of them to do the risk management, but I reckon it even make more trouble than just choose one, because it involves much more elements to balance, and too some extent, these two methods may run into contradictions, the adaption calls for flexibility, while absorption requires people to use un-change to respond to the changes.
This definitely challenges the un-developed risk management of China.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.14

1.
After years of struggling to build its China operations, Google has threatened to pull out of the country following a sophisticated cyber attack on its corporate infrastructure.
2.
Now Google.cn links to pages that include information about the bloody government crackdown in 1989, though the page appears to
have fluctuated between uncensored and censored over the course of the day.
3.

But the decision to offer a censored search page prompted an outcry from human-rights activists and some members of Congress that the company was turning a blind eye to its "Don't be evil" motto for the sake of access to the lucrative Chinese market.
4.
By dropping its censorship, the company stands to regain some of the moral clout([MW]n. PULL, INFLUENCE <political clout>).
5.
Given the company's tempestuous(tempest [MW] n. a violent storm) four years in China, the odds the authorities will now compromise are slim.
6.
Baidu, a Chinese search engine with a Google-lookalike home page, has used its better relationship with authorities and its indigenous appeal as a domestic company to surge past Google.


Comments
I saw this piece of news just few hours ago today. Unlike most friends around me, I’m not a Google fan and used to use Baidu. Even though that’s my habit, I still feel sorry about Google and the situation it faced in the past four years. I can imagine how hard it got through and how hard it struggled just between the lines in this article.

These years are really tough for Google, especially when they dealing with authorities in China. I think Chinese government is not that prepared to release much sensitive information. That’s just the way it does in China, you have to abide by the game rules here if you want to play and stay in it.

So because Google is the giant in IT field and it’s not domestic, it’s not easy to keep low profile under all the media lights and the public eyes. The environment puts more pressures and risks for them to do business in Chinese mainland.

Wish Google has a bright future and can come back in the next years.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.15 Comment

Battle of sexes, it is just never going to end, not to talking about the family problems and the children education involved.

In the hundreds of years, we just have used to have men control the world and many other related fields. So we are afraid of this situation will be change, especially the males. What does it really change whether women will cross the 50% threshold of the American workforce? I mean, how much difference it really makes between the 49.99% and 50%, it’s just a percentage. From my perspective of thinking, it’s just a signal that we are going to approach the “equality” and it’s still a long way to get there under the current situations, much less the “conquer of men”.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.16 Comments

好词好句~

Too often belligerent（交战的） motives are ascribed（随意给予） to anyone who suggests the viability（可行性） of the military option in resolving the international standoff（僵局） over Iran's nuclear programme. However, the argument in favour of military action is not about what is preferred but rather about what might be necessary.

But bombing Iran's nuclear facilities is not going to achieve that goal, especially at this late stage of the game.

Both Chuck Wald and Emily Landau concur that diplomacy, even with President Barack Obama's hand stretched out to Iran, has been unsuccessful.

Dr Landau says it is worth giving diplomacy another shot.

by common consensus

How much time will General Wald give sanctions before he decides it is time to pull the trigger?

An interesting question, in light of the "green" movement that is protesting on the streets of Iran, is whether a different regime might give up nuclear ambitions.

And even if a reformist regime were to pursue nuclear weapons, might it not be less frightening than the current lot led by。。。。。

All this is reminiscent of Iraq.

In short, General Wald's prescription could mean a decade or more of conflict with Iran

a provocative question

Should all other options fail to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, a US-led military strike is preferable to an Israeli attack.

Given continuing Russian reluctance, Chinese indifference and EU apprehension, it seems unlikely that we will see internationally-backed biting sanctions soon, if at all.

The Obama administration's commendable efforts to reach out to Tehran for the past year have yielded no progress



Comment
As the most powerful country all over the world, United States always considers itself as the world policeman. Just like what is said in this debate: “Given continuing Russian reluctance, Chinese indifference and EU apprehension, it seems unlikely that we will see internationally-backed biting sanctions soon, if at all.” It will criticize the ignorance of other countries to emphasize how much it cares about the all people living in this planet. Last time is the weapon in Iraq and this time, it focus on Iran.

Actually, it always seems a perfect excuse to invade another country for American government in my sight. How acid Times choose this topic to discuss when Mr Obama just received the Nobel Peace prize two months ago.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.18 Comment

As a person with no religion and born in a country with no religion, I always wonder about the Bible and the religion related. However, to most Western people, the Bible is of great importance. The Bible is second to none among the books that have influenced the thought and ideals of the Western world. I met a foreigner once and he told me that it’s the Bible that made him becoming a good man and having a happy family.

From my perspective of learning, the Bible to the West is what the Marxism to China. All governments or the political fields want to have something to control people other than laws. So Western countries picked the Bible, while China chose Marxism. We have to admit sometimes they are effective.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.19

好词好句

In this long season of bailouts and federally administered stimuli, with seemingly every starving investment banker pleading to Congress that capitalism is just too hard, America’s artists had a golden opportunity to pull off the greatest piece of conceptual art since Marcel Duchamp realized that urinal-factory craftsmen in Trenton, New Jersey, were turning out far more graceful sculpture than he ever could.

are in line for 即将获得 有可能得到

Keep your soft-core socialism for Citigroup and the manufacturers of wooden arrows!



Comment
Last time, we learnt something about the painting market, now we have a broader view of the art market in American in this article—something about the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA).

It seems to me that NEA really did something in the early period. In the early 1990s, when the NEA was helping underwrite artists who baptized Jesus Christ in urine or gave live tours of their cervixes, its value to our culture was clear: For less than a dollar a year per taxpayer, the organization served as a vivid symbol of our commitment to free expression. In other countries, the government might behead you for blaspheming sacred figures; in America, it was paying you to do so! Granted, the NEA did a far better job offending conservative sensibilities than liberal ones, but anyone with a taste for unfettered discourse could appreciate it on an abstract level at least. The arts bureaucracy was itself a work of conceptual art.

However, with time flies and technology development, it also has a complicated prevention system, such as institutional self-ossification, institutional shortage, traditional ideal and people's directional thinking. The NEA doesn’t care about the new things around it and just focus on the old things like new orchestral works and accordion festivals. Then the NEA becomes something which prevents the development of art markets.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.12  Comment

When reading this article, I thought about the time when I was addicted to the US TV drama CSI: Maiami. I spent all day and night watching it rather than doing assignments and preparing for the exams. However, this article relates to it a lot. I still remember that one episode in this series of drama talking about child-molesters. In that episode, a CSI officer found that there is a child-molester living in her block. In order to protect her children, she posted his image on the trees both sides of the road. However, this leaded to the death of this man although he tried to become a better people at the end.

I admit that child-molesters are somehow dangerous to the innocent children and it’s hard for them to inhibit their impulsion, control their minds and change their behavior, at least we should give them another chance to try.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

1.20 Comment

When I was studying in the high school, I was really fascinating into the biology field. I like the biology teacher, the biology books and almost anything related to this subject. However, I feel so boring reading this article without any reasonable explanations.

I know it’s about the genes and a new technology known as optogenetics, which provides another choice for stimulating the deep-brain neurons in order to alleviate the abnormal movements of Parkinson's disease, but I am really not into it.

Parkinson is a disease spread fast in these years and it’s hard to cure. If this is a way to help, I really appreciate it.

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

努力努力~~