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发表于 2009-8-17 21:47:12
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48# wk4a
TOPIC: ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS: 291
TIME: 00:35:00
DATE: 2009-8-17 16:47:50
In expectation to prevent flu epidemics, the arguer suggests people to avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. To support this idea, the arguer offers the data about heavy sunspot activity years which are considered more solar energy are received by earth, indicating these years are also when worldwide flu epidemic broke. Good intent the arguer holds, the reasoning process suffer many fallacies.
During the past 300 years, there were six worst worldwide flu epidemics which occurred just when heavy sunspots are recorded. But no information is provided whether heavy sunspots are just as much as six times, or much more than that. If such celestial phenomenon is quite often that almost every ten or twenty years it can be spotted while the flu epidemics are relatively rare, then the connection between the both is absurd. Without providing full record of sunspot activities years, it is hard to judge the influence given by them.这段倒是到点了。
Even if there is some connection between sunspots activities and flu epidemics, it is rash to say there must be the solar energy that affected the Earth. When sunspot breaks out, numerous kinds of rays are given out which contains not only solar energy. Rays form sunspots like X ray, can lead to many problems, which may include worldwide flu epidemics. Without given any information about the real reason that have caused flu epidemics, the effect of solar energy remains invalid.太阳光包括X ray~你说X RAY可能才是archcrimial,那就等于是太阳光是咧。用你的话,X RAY是阳光神圣不可分割的一部分。
Though solar energy might have served as an archcriminal to cause worldwide flu epidemics, no evidence indicates that it is necessary for people to avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. It is unclear that whether more sun energy can stimulate flu virus to multiply more quickly or significantly harm people's immune system. If sunspots can activate flu virus to harm people's health, then avoiding exposure to sun does little to prevent from catching flu.没明白你的意思。如果太阳黑子可以使病毒活跃,那避免晒太阳没用。想不通。
In sum, the arguer fails to connect flu epidemics with sunspots, and real reason to cause flu's widely spread. The argument need to be substantiated by more information about years of sunspots break up. Also, how the flu virus is activated needs to be investigated to help people prevent it.
我研究了下,
1. 黑子爆发的频率什么样的,就像你B1说的。
2 看看流感爆发还有什么原因,比如被猪传染啊。
3. 不晒太阳就算能防流感,那其他呢?会不会容易导致缺calcium?----这点是没得找瞎找了~
The real influence of much more solar energy, received by the Earth than that of normal years, remains unclear as it might not be the reason to这句话打哪冒?
PS: 赫敏太聪明,哈利太有天赋。两强人怎么能在一起呢~听谁的呢?会吵架的。
你的I我明天晚上有空或者心情也不错(当然希望不错)再看了~打算关机~睡觉~上战场去了~ |
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