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本帖最后由 joey81525 于 2010-12-23 22:11 编辑
大纲提交。
先挖个坑，回头再来填。
第一天，写了4个提纲，不过还是按照约定的先提交3个吧。第四个也觉得还欠考虑。
**已经把剩下的补齐了。
Argue2
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."
提纲：
Restrictions on landscape and colors --> property value tripled (may not be the cause-and-effect relation, only time consequences, other reasons )
Even if.., Seven years ago --> now and future (change of the trends of exteriors, people like more diversity)
Even if it works in Brookville --> Deerhaven (demographic difference, environmental difference )
Argue6
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
提纲：
100,000 people, radio --> jazz music is popular
(does not mean jazz music club is popular, may not go to club,just listen to the radio, CD, what part of 100,000 is from local)
Nearest jazz club is 65 miles away --> local market all to C club
(other general music clubs that periodically play jazz)
Nationawide study 1,000 USD --> make money
(Monroe maybe unique, 1000usd includes many items)
All three --> C club tremendously profitable (questionable)
修改了一下8的提纲：
100,000 people, radio --> jazz music is popular
(what part of 100,000 is from local, maybe most of them come from the places with jazz music club; does not mean jazz music club is popular, may not go to club,just listen to the radio, CD; so the large scale of market is not promised)
Even if there is a large market exists,
Nearest jazz club is 65 miles away --> local market all to C club
(not exactly, there may be other general music clubs that periodically play jazz that most of the jazz music fans more prefer)
Even if there is no other club to compete,
Nationwide study 1,000 USD --> make money
(profitable is questionable, Monroe maybe unique, people there spend much less than 1000, or spend most of 1000 to buy many items other than going to club)
没有提到c club经营能力的原因，我考虑The following was written as a part of an application，这部分主要是在论述外部市场环境的，经营能力必然会在 other parts 里面提到。依据ets 所说的 argument的考察内容，主要是考察critically examining the line of reasoning and the use of evidence, 所以个人认为，文中没有提及的不攻击也许更合适。而指出上面只几条错误，已经展示考试者的critically examining了。
Argue8
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
提纲：
Although the strategic planning department does not state in the argument, but clearly assumes that buying Mesa Foods and concentrate in particular on marketing DS throughout the country will be a profitable action for Omni Inc based on what has been stated in the argument.
14-to-25 year olds --> buying Mesa Foods, and marketing DS
(the target consumer of DS is not specified, can be other age groups)
Even if..., three years increase and strong growth potential in a relatively small region of the country
--> now and future, throughout the country
(the condition changes in this period, the situation differences between the small region and the entire country, i.e. preference of snack food can be extremely different, pricing policy...)
Further more, buying MF may not be profitable at all to Omni Inc. without stating any of the cost.
16
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
提纲：
We establish state lottery --> improve educational and public health program
Two years ago, Lucria state lottery --> today, spends more
(time consequence, not the cause-and-effect relationship, the lottery may not be profitable, the fund comes from other sources, may changed the policy)
Even if..., profitable in Lucira, $50 on gambling of citizens of Impecunia --> lottery doubtless successful
(Condition differences between L and I; Survey: Do they gambling in our state, or elsewhere; gambling is different from lottery, will they buy lottery; conducted in the capital city, the rural citizens may be conservative who do not gambling nor buying lottery)
Even if..., the lottery is successful --> profit be used in education and public health
(can be used in somewhere else without any policy and regulation to insure that)
21
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
提纲：
Not offer deluxe alpaca overcoats for five years, major competitor no longer makes it --> pent-up customer demand
(weak argument, customers may not have the demand anymore, can be the reason why the competitor stop; even if, there may be alternative products to fulfill the demand)
Even if the demand is there,
Most types of clothing price risen --> customers willing to pay higher prices
(unsound argument, deluxe alpaca overcoat may not be one of them)
Even if the customers willing to pay,
Resume production --> profit will increase
(not cogent, the cost may be much higher than the revenue, the cost for raw material, rebuilding the retail franchises, branding cost)
38
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
提纲：
EM people consume more fish --> They rarely go to visit doctor for colds (weak argument, many other reasons)
--> prevent colds
(unsound, many people may not visit doctor for colds)
Even if a substantial fish consumption does prevent colds --> daily use of Ichthaid prevent colds
(argument with fallacy, using Ichthaid does not equate to consuming fish, colds may be prevented by other nutrition from fish)
Even it does prevent colds --> lower absenteeism
(using cold as a reason does not mean really getting cold, can be excuses, can use other excuses)
193
The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day. Yet a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into question. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week, if at all.
提纲：
Survey from math and science, S more homework, M less homework --> M higher grades overall than S
(invalid argument, the grades of math and science from M may be lower than S)
Even if grades of math and science from M are higher than S --> works for all subjects
(unsound argument, teachers from M may assigning more homework for other subjects than S, other subjects may need more homework to be marstered)
Even if all teachers from all subjects assigning less homework from M--> is sufficient to lead that students from M earn better grades than S
(weak argument, many other factors)
Even it works for M --> F should take the same approach
(M maybe a unique sample from F, many differences may exist for the approach not succeed in whole state)
206
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.
"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."
提纲：
Parkville should discontinue athletic competition based on the apparently outweighed disadvantages to any advantages
However, all the evidences are ungrounded
More and more participated in softball and soccer --> 80,000 of these injured
( is 80,000 more than last year? Or same? Or less? The percentage may be much lower than in the past. Are the injuries caused by practicing too much or lack of exercise? Participating in softball and soccer may help strengthen the body and lessen the injury number)
Additionally, Softball in several major cities, psychological pressure from parents and coaches
(Parkville may be different from major cities, coaches and parents may not give pressure here. Children may even feel joyful and releaxed )
Moreover, Education experts: long practice sessions take over academic activities time.
(the definition of long is not clear, proper sports time can help students release the pressure from academic activities and make the academic time more efficient )
Further more, the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages
(the assertion is made without analysing any of the advantage from softball and soccer, and anyother sport)
209
The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
提纲；
Profits fallen in last three quarters of this year --> ask Pat to resign
(a weak argument, the missing quarter of this year may be the highest revenue producing season; profits fallen may caused by the overall economical environment; Fancy Toy may still be the leader in the Toy industry; which shows the capability of Pat)
Meanwhile, replace Pat with Rosa --> soon expect profits increase considerably
(1. revenue is not guaranteed: profits of SJ increased over years may caused by the increasing demand of jewelry industry, and SJ can still be the worst of the industry; even if SJ is the best, the credit is not Rosa's own; even if Rosa is the key person, but from jewelry industry, can be very different from toy industry; )
(2.Cost is foreseeable: a generous severance package for Pat, doubled salary for Rosa, the time cost for the personnel change) |
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发表于 2010-12-21 23:41:13
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