Argument18

Luise8891UID: 2906459

18The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."

刘文奇UID: 2850560

argument 18
The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, Major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
为提高高速公路的安全性，Prunty County最近把镇上所有主要路段的最高限速从55mph降到了45。但我们应该恢复到55mph的限速，因为这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降。如果我们要提高公路安全性，我们应该采取Butler County在5年前完成的同样的道路改善计划：增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面。现在，Butler County的主要道路仍然使用55mph限速，而那里近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％。
论断：限速可能是有效的，因为作者并没有提供hard evidence反驳它的有效性。
段二：多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降，并不能说明这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。首先，多数司机都超过了新的限速，很可能是因为司机还没有适应新的限速，毕竟，在以前很长的一段时间都是55mph，已经习惯了以这个速度作为标准。其次，由于在文中并没有说明调查的时间间隔，所以只说事故率仅有微量下降是不够的。也许这个调查是在新规定出台后一个月做的，由于司机在这个阶段可能正处于适应阶段，所以只是关于这个阶段的调查是不能说明什么问题的。
段三：在没有提供其它相关证据时，贸然就Prunty County与Butler County相比较是不合适的。首先，Butler County附近的地势可能比较险峻，人口也比较多。如果情况确实如此，那么增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面并不一定能达到像Butler County一样的结果。其次，虽然Butler County近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％，但这个研究的时间间隔是五年，在这五年内，很可能有其他许多因素影响这个结果。
总结。

ydycgwllUID: 2894737

原题逻辑：
（事实）Prunty County降低最高限速仅稍微降低事故发生率，而Butler County5年前增加路宽、重铺路面使得去年事故发生率相比5年前降低25%
（论断）Prunty County应该学习Butler County的措施
1、        Prunty County减低限速后，在对比的前后时间内是否其它因素没有变化，比如：车辆数目在这两段时间之内明显增加、路面情况变得更糟、恶劣天气较之前一年增多==；而且，减速这一举措没有被很好地执行，因为most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit；在这些因素还没有考虑之前就下结论降低最高时速这一举措应该取消是an arbitrary decision
2、        文中并没有将两个国家之间相同时间段内的事故发生率进行比较，也许Butler County的事故发生率比Prunty County还高；25%只是B自己的增长率，况且25%的减少totally can be attributed to the improvement of the highway？ Moreover，the project 5年前就完成，speaker却只拿this past year的数据来作比较得出增长25%
3、        要得出the conclusion that Prunty County instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project 还必须将两国之间的路面客观情况作出比较；这是一项需要资金投入的措施，Prunty County还应该根据国情来判断是否投资
4、        Suggest：Prunty County大部分超速，可见关键还是要提高该国全民的安全意识；就还可以通过健全交通法==