wintogether dorliu 第二次作业

doraliuUID: 2842061

38.The following memo appeared in thenewsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has cometo our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in ourschools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, wherefish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once ortwice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantialamount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason mostfrequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use ofIchthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way toprevent colds and lower absenteeism."



Thememo said that there was a promising way to reduce the absenteeism in schooland workplaces. It support its argument in this way: first, study shows that inEast Meria where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor forcold only once or twice each year, and second colds are the most frequentlygiven reason for absences from schools and work places. So its conclusion is ifpeople in West Meria eat more fish, they could get fewer colds as people inEast Meria do, so we could have less absences since it’s the most frequentlygiven reason for absences.

Theinference form reasons to results have some flaws though it appears to bepersuasive. First, people in East Meria visit the doctor for colds very raredoes not mean they rarely get cold; there is a possibility that they get coldbut chose not to see a doctor because we know it does not matter much. And evenif we accept the assumption that they do rarely get cold that does not mean itis due to the consumption of fish. Eating more fish, getting fewer colds, theymay just two independent events. People in East Meria are less likely to catchcold maybe because they take part in sports more frequently; maybe weather inEast Meria is more suitable for people to live; they have nice environment andso on. The assertion that eating substantial amount of fish can prevent coldsis not well grounded.

Secondeven we agree with the statement that people in East Meria do get less coldsbecause they eat more fish that does not mean daily use of Ichthaid would helpreduce colds in West Mera. It may be due to other elements in fish that helpprevent getting cold. The statement shows no evidence that it is Ichthaid thathelps. And even if we take the statement's position and agree that people inEast Meria eat fish and have less colds that maybe do not contribute to lessabsences from school and work place. As we can see from the statement :cold isthe most frequently given reason for absences, and the truth maybe that peoplejust don’t want to go to work and make up a excuse that they get cold. If coldis just the most popular excuse for absences from school and work, eating morefish could do nothing to help.

Tosum up, it is arbitrary to say the use of ichthaid would prevent colds andachieve lower absenteeism based on the reasons given by the statement