Argument 85

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85The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper.

"Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow."

In this argument, the author claims that if Myrians remain want to enjoy the prosperity, they should reelect Governor Winslow. His evidence is that the average wage is increased the most since 1970’s, the unemployment rate decreased by 10 percent, and the new housing is up by one third, whereas his opponent’s city has only a few new businesses opened in it. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.

First, the average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970’s, which is not ensure that people actually have the wages higher than before or people living a wealthier life than before. For the first case, if Myria was just suffered the economic crisis, and this year is the convalescent period, there is no doubt that even if the average wage increases this year, the actually average wage are still low than before. For the second case, even if the actually average wage increases, but if the food price increased higher than the wage, then people still do not enjoy a more satisfied life. In short, higher increasing in wage does not mean prosperity in life quality, considering the possibility of the economic crisis and the soaring price of food.

Secondly, unemployment rate decreased by 10 percent does not mean that recently Myria has a good employment situation than before. Still perhaps Myria now recovers from the economic crisis. Even if the unemployment rate declined, maybe the former employment condition was bad, and it is possible that this year’s employment rate actually lower than before.

Thirdly, the construction of new homes is up by one third is little indication that Myria will earn a profit from these new buildings. Perhaps these buildings, which were bought by very few people, are mostly empty now. If this is the case, it is difficult to guarantee to retake the cost, let alone make profit.

Fourth, the city, governed by Mr. Homer – the opponent of Governor Winslow, has only a few new businesses opened which does not necessarily indicate that there are few job opportunities in this city. Perhaps the companies opened are all big ones, so they will provide plenty of job opportunities for individuals. Maybe the total number of the jobs offered by these big companies is much more than provided by many small businesses. So only a few new businesses opened do not necessarily mean the economic is not prosperous in this city, it entirely possible that people can have more job opportunities here.

Finally, the author recommends that Myrians should reelect Governor Winslow for continuous economic prosperity. But this conclusion based on the assumption that Myria is indeed prosperous during the last few years and these prosperities are created by Winslow. From the discussion above, the author cannot convince me by the facts he cites. Even if the economy is indeed prosperous, is it necessarily contributed by Winslow? It is possible that the economic environment in the Myria is good itself, and the economy there will continue to be good with little regulation by Governor. Another should be fixed(确定) is that Winslow is actually more effective than any other Governor in dealing with the economy issues. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot convince me it is the right and best choice to reelect Winslow for Myria’s prosperity.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the author must provide clear evidence – that first Winslow is effective more effective than other Governors in dealing with economic issues, secondly, the average wage in Myria is actually higher and people have more save than before, and last, the unemployment rate declined and the new housings increased are really representatives of the economic prosperity in Myria. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know why the average wages increased and unemployment is declined in Myria this year. I would also need to know what is the trading conditions of the new housings.