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ARGUMENT42
The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
提纲
1)BE and PA might not be comparable in tourist resources, environment,etc.
2)The success of ecotourism in BE, if any, may have no causal relationship with the director’s effort.
3)we don’t know what fraction of visitors arriving at BE came here for tourism.
other factors could also account for the increase in per capita income in BE.
4)The author doesn’t provide any information about details of ecotourism,thus the assumption that the natural environment of PE will be preserved is not ensured.
In this proposal from the economic minister of the country of PA, the author concludes that PA should start to promote ecologically sound tourism(ecotourism), and also suggests that they need to hire the current director of BE’s national tourism office as a consultant for this projection. To support this conclusion the author points out that neighboring country BE began the similar campaign last year and the number of visitors arriving at BE’s main airport doubled this year. Furthermore, the income of per capita increased by 10 percent. For several reasons, I am not convinced that the proposal’s projection is accurate.
To begin with, the author ignored a crucial precondition whether we have enough ecotourism resources to support such a campaign due to BE and PA might not be comparable in tourist resources, environment, etc. if we are lack of these resources or our environmental conditions are not appealing enough, the campaign would not be effective as BE’s without such preconditions. Unfortunately, the author overlooked this point.
Moreover, the suggestion that we should hire the director from BE’s national office as our consultant is open to doubt, as a necessary premise that employing him is advantage to our projection is not guaranteed. The success of ecotourism in BE, if any, may have no causal relationship with the director’s effort. Thus, without providing more information about the premise, it is unfair to conclude that we should keep the director in our service.
Yet another problem with the proposal involves the grounds of the argument is not convinced. Firstly, we don’t know what fraction of visitors arriving at BE came here for tourism. Perhaps, the main airport in BE becomes a new transport hub lead to more floating visitors and businessmen who might not concern traveling here. Secondly, other factors could also account for the increase in per capita income in BE. Perhaps the development of other industries motives the enhancing of income. Without taking into account these possibilities, the author can not persuade me that PA should adopt the recommendation mentioned above.
Finally, the conclusion that by promoting ecotourism we can increase income for the population of PA as well as preserve the natural environment is unwarranted. The author doesn’t provide any information about details of ecotourism,thus the assumption that the natural environment of PE will be preserved is not ensured. As we don’t know exactly how it would function to reach the goals. It is entirely possible that many other more beneficial ideas are exist. Lacking such detailed information, the proposal cannot justify its conclusion that we should take the action to promote ecotourism
In sum, the proposal is not well supported. To strengthen it, the author must provide clear evidence of our nation’s detailed resources adapting development of ecotourism. To better bolster it, the author also should ensure that the hiring of the director is benefit to our campaign based on more specific measures of BE’s plan. |
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