模考第五天-ISSUE120

wisleUID: 2578616

TOPIC: ISSUE120 - "So much is new andcomplex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provideslittle guidance for living in the present."
WORDS: 503
TIME: 00:45:00
DATE: 2009-8-9下午 02:42:10
下午模考，感觉还好，呵呵，嗯离机考日子快了！努力向前冲！
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Compass is to the ship sailing in the oceanwhat the history is to the human exploring under new circumstance. History islooking back for an understanding of the past. Although, history, consists ofwhat happened yesterday, cannot determine the fetal of the today, she can givea credible predict and a helpful advise to us.

However, some opponents who hold theopinion that today is too complex to make a relationship with the past, deemthat looking back for an understanding of the past is an action wasting theircherish time. They usually give an example in stock market. No matter who,stock investor or stock market commenter, usually fails to predict the marketin the future, even the coming tomorrow. Otherwise, the unexpected loss in thestock market will never happen. Indeed, in every day, there are always someunlucky guys losing and others gaining. Opponents opine that those gain in thestock market are just lucky on that day rather than through predicting thehistory data. Therefore, in any field, they think, looking back for an understandingof the past is in vain.

No doubt, there is no one who can predicttomorrow through understanding the past. Similarly, who can know what willhappen when you unearth the land, a goldmine or just rocks? Maybe the answer isin the God's mind. But it is reasonable to realize the fact that the history,to some extent, repeats itself in the tomorrow. The depression in economy, forexample, demonstrates this principle perfectly. Nearly every 10 years there isa big economy crisis. In later 1980s and early 1990s, the economy recession hitthe United States.In 1997, the Asian Economy Crisis happened. Interestingly, the same scenarioappears again in the world economy stage in 2007 in the United States. Maybe someone willthink these events are not relevant. Factually, the event happens inevitablysince the 10-year development in science and technology brings some flaws inour present economy. Therefore the example serves to say that the history canpredict something, in a large extent.

Besides, the past can predict the tomorrow.The central concept of looking back to the past is to understand the externalprinciple-axiom. These axioms can guide us to the correct orientation. As ananalogy, an understanding of the past is like a star, so that the ship-oursociety-can enter into a sunny area rather than back to the storm under itsguidance. Through looking back the past, we can find some mistakes ourancestors had done. Thus when confronting the same scenario, we can avoid torepeat their way to failure. By unremittinglygeneralizing the past, we can explore the new and complex world moreeffectively with less loss.

In a nutshell, history-looking back for anunderstanding of the past-cannot determine what will happen next, but can helpus solve the similar dilemma with less cost. Looking back the past can tell usthe way we had come, meanwhile guide a promising way in front of us.