<win together>小组作业 by 7

FM74UID: 2979714

2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the
Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set
of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what
colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property
values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in
Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and
housepainting."
论据:几年前, B在landscaping和housepainting上采取了一系列限制规定， 从此以后，average property values↑。
结论: D同样采取限制，average property values也会增加。
攻击潜在的假设:
1、D与B 的情况类似。典型的错误类比。
2、B的average property values增加是由采取限制规定导致。从论据只能看出两者有时间先后的关系，没有因果关系。经济增长是更方面复杂因素决定的，比如全球的经济形势，地方政策等等，作者应该提供信息或者调查增长的原因。


6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan bya group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroewould be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz clubis 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the localmarket all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazzmusicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide studyindicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazzentertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

结论：在M开 jazz club会盈利。
论据：1、附近目前没有竞争的jazz club，因而能拥有当地的市场。2、jazz在M 很受欢迎，也就是说有市场。3、全国性的研究表明，jazz迷每年在jazz上消费￥1000，还是有市场。
很明显，作者只看重有关盈利的一个方面，即认为有市场就能盈利。须知make profit还与管理，宣传，club的硬件条件有关。另外，作者关于有市场的推论unconvincing。附近没有jazz club很可能说明不适合开club，jazz在M受欢迎不表明人们去club，正如文中所提到的festival，radio也是听jazz的方式。再者，全国性的调查是整体的结论，不能分解到部分。

8.The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning departmentat Omni Inc.

"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its
products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth
potential. Mesaenjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling
product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three
years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age
group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, andconcentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the
country."

论据：MF，一家零食生产商，主要市场在当地，去年盈利20%↑，best-seller DS过去三年销售一直在增加。
Omni Inc兴趣针对喜欢零食的消费人群。
结论：Omni Inc应该收购MF，并且向全国推广DS。
谬误：1、当地与全国：主要市场在当地，有可能是针对特殊人群，它的口味可能只有少数人喜欢。
2、事关盈利的其他方面。popularity是一方面，还有管理销售等。两家公司的管理、销售理念不同，MF被收购后，不可能不改变原来成功的运行模式。所以Omni Inc能否成功推销MS still in doubt.


16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizenof the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to
supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends
more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more
people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery
like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educationalsystem and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be
successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes thatcitizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year ongambling."

同Argu 2
喜欢赌博不一定会买彩票。虽然两者都是建立在人们侥幸的心理上，但是赌博在环境的烘托下，更有刺激性。人们赌博有可能是要经历这种刺激，这是彩票做不到的

21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, acompany that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliablesupplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxealpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resumeproduction. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered analpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makesan alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since theprice of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years,customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpacaovercoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits willincrease."

1、竞争者的减少很有可能说明市场的缩小,时尚是经常变化的,人们的审美观念2、短时间内很少回头的,而不是作者所说的减少了竞争者拥有更大的市场份额.
人们以高价买A是没有论据的臆测.作者应该在推出产品前作调查人们会不会购买.
3、公司的盈利不只是产品的问题, 事关销售,管理等


28.The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.

"A recent sixmonth study, in which breakfast was made available at schoolfor 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the
breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late
for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing
student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who
regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school.Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic
performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should
provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."

1、调查的问题：调查的人群，如果是平时也不逃课的话，调查结果没有意义，应该对比六个月前这些学生的表现。
2、考虑不全面：Performance和逃课还有其他的原因，比如兴趣，家庭，教师，教学方法，同龄人的影响。
论据只是刻意的向结论靠拢，或者说作者之收集与结论有关的论据，而忽略其他因素。

38 The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

作者的推论：旷课是由感冒引起的，吃鱼能预防感冒，因为在EM地区，人们吃大量的鱼，并且很少看医生，故吃鱼减少旷课。

1、作者在推论中做了几个概念的替换：EM地区的人们=我们，看医生=得感冒，如果EM生活在海边，只能吃鱼，饮食不能保证健康，还要看生活环境，心理状态，生活习惯，medical care等。
2、旷课是由感冒引起的这个说法也经不起推敲，感冒是个很好的易被接受的借口，不一定真的感冒。
3、旷课的其他原因：学生的兴趣，家庭，教师，教学方法，同龄人的影响。



193.The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day. Yet a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into question. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week, if at all.

1、调查的是math和science，注重的是逻辑的思考，而其他科目比如语言，历史更需要理解力和记忆力。作者没有考虑科目的不同。
2、M区与S区：M区作业少，表现好，可能与学校的教育方式，学生的整体认知水平、学习方式等因素有关，不仅仅是作业次数的问题。


206.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.

"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."

1、8000的年轻球员受伤，不知受伤的程度和总人数的比例，不能说明是否严重。
2、调查主要在major city，另外有心理压力很正常，重要的是教导年轻球员调节状态，面对压力，而不是逃避。
3、运动时间长，减少Academic活动。时间不重要，效率才是关键。运动后学习效果更好。另外，学习书本知识只是儿童成长的一部分。在training和竞赛中学到的坚持，团队精神是儿童应拥有的品格。

209.The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

1、三个季度的业绩下滑而匆忙作决定换人，不够理智。可能不是个人的原因，还与整体的市场情况有关。可能都在下滑。
2、珠宝与玩具是不同的行业，珠宝是奢侈品，主要针对成年，富有人群，玩具更倾向于儿童。R在珠宝界的经验在玩具业不一定适用。