Argument6 晚辈第一篇，恳求指导，以明方向！

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."



This argument is well presented with the details of reasoning why C Note, the proposed jazz club, would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. But on a second thought, it is hardly well reasoned. There are many flaws in the logic path, and they are presented as follows.

To begin with, it is unjustifiable for the arguer to assume that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe only based on the reasons he/she presented. Firstly, that over 100,000 people attended the Monroe's jazz festival is groundless to support the assumption without knowing the total number of Monroe's population. Because people who went to the festival are not necessarily all jazz fans who go to jazz clubs, instead they might spend their money on jazz records; Secondly, that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe cannot support the assumption either because we cannot obviate other explanations for their inhabitancy in Monroe, such as the jazz musicians live in the city just because the climate here is agreeing, or because it is tranquil here so that they can focus on their works, rather than because the people here loves jazz music; Thirdly, there is very little information of the nationwide study about the money spent by the typical jazz fan on jazz entertainment, so its reliability is dubious, and even if the study is trustable, "jazz entertainment" does not necessarily mean going to jazz club. Maybe it mainly refers to buying jazz records. Thus, without obviating all the other possibilities such as the above mentioned, the assumption that people in Monroe is extremely fund of jazz is unwarranted.

Secondly, granted that the above assumption is justifiable, it cannot validate the conclusion together with the other assumption that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, because this C Note jazz club is a proposed club, and the possibility that other jazz clubs will emerge in Monroe during the time when C Note is being built will keep the conclusion from being convincing, since the arguer concludes that the C Note would have the local market all to itself. Others will share the customers with C Note, keeping it from having the local market “all” to itself.

Besides, whether C Note would be a tremendously profitable enterprise does not simply depend on how many potential customers there are, but, even more significantly, on the quality of its service. If C Note provides so poor service that even there is no competitors in Monroe, jazz fans still go to clubs in other cities, regardless of the 65 miles far distance, it is for sure that it would not make any profit. So satisfying the customers is the key quality for a service to be profitable, and if C Note disregards that, the expected goal will not be achieved even with abundant potential customer resource.

In the final analysis, the arguer's conclusion is drawn hastily without considering other vital possibilities that may invalidate it as well as other factors for a successfully profitable service facility, in this case, C Note. As developers, they may be eager to make tremendous profits, but assurance that the proposal is warranted and worthy of being put into practice before making the final decision is crucial. After all, more haste, less speed.

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虽然晚辈水平有限，但能帮上忙回拍的一定在所不辞！！

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现在不知道自己的Argument写作在什么水平，最大的问题是什么，而且Issue还完全没有想法，着急啊！！求助各位达人！！就算给出个大致感觉也万分感激！！

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继续顶吧！！