【RichardLee的作文】新G Argument59 求修改

richardleecod6UID: 2759051

Argument 59:
Most homes in the northeastern UnitedStates, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as theirmajor fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 dayswith below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that thisweather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many newhomes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil andrecommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major businessoperations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Time: 30 min
Words: 366

In the argument, the author made a predictionthat there would be an increased demand for heating oil and recommended peopleto invest the Consolidated Industries because its major business operations isretail sale of home heating oil since climate forecasters predicted that theweather below-normal temperatures would continue for years. However, severalfallacies appeared in the argument and weaken the convincing of the argument.

To begin with, the author made conclusionthat the heating oil would have a bigger market in the future because mosthomes in the northeastern US traditionally use oil as their major fuel for heating.But there's no background information to prove such reason is correct. Thoughoil is a major fuel for heating, but it is possible that with the raising priceof heating oil, many homes has turned to use coral or electric heating deviceto provide heat, which left few people using heating oil.

In addition, since the climate forecasterspredicted that the below-temperature would continue for several more years,some homes, especially those with old people, might move away from thenortheastern US to somewhere warmer. If such assumption is true, the heatingoil market would be shrunk and less profit would be made.

Moreover, though many new homes were beingbuilt in the region in response to recent population growth, but whether thepopulation would keep growing in the future is unknown. Since no specific datato prove this statement, we could assume that many people would change theirmind to settle in this region since the future climate would continue to bebelow-normal which predicted by the forecasters.

Finally, the author recommended people toinvest the Consolidated Industries since one of its major business operationsis the retail sale of home heating oil. But if all the trends mentioned aboveis false, there would be no convincing evidence to recommend people to investthe Consolidated Industries. Besides, if all the assumption were true, it couldbe possible that there're many companies who sale home heating oil as well andConsolidated Industries was only a small firm of them. So, there's no evidenceto prove Consolidated Industries would increase its sale and profit in thefuture.


感觉第一个攻击有点牵强，但之前看过一些帖子里说证据部分也可以攻击~~不知对不对，请有经验的大侠指点迷津啊~~！


谢谢~~！！！