【燃烧的战火作文互改】Hedia 的argument习作贴

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第一次写，求狠拍！
2012.9.17

Argument 60
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

The arguer claims that the demand for heating oil will increase and therefore recommends investment in Consolidated Industries. As evidence the arguer points out that the temperature was low last year and it will continue for several years. It may seem true to some extent, but there are many assumptions of the statement which must be examined clearly.
    The first assumption the arguer gives is that experiencing 90 days with below-normal temperatures last year indicates a colder weather compared to others. However, there are not any data convincing us that claim. A comparison of numbers of days with below-normal temperature among several years is needed. After all the criteria of the "normal" is not clear and it is totally possible that in many years the district is experiencing days with temperatures below the "normal" one. If so, the arguer cannot conclude that last heating season was an especially cold one. Even if last season was cold, the arguer assumes that the climate forecasters are credible and their forecast will come true, which has no evidence. Without convincing proof we cannot believe the cold weather will continue in the following years.
Besides, the arguer mentions that oil is a traditional source for heating in the district, then assumes that oil will go on to be used as the major fuel from now on. In the contrast the development of technology makes it completely possible to use a kind of cheaper and cleaner resources for heating. If so, companies selling oil will even have a decrease in their selling achievements.
Another assumption the arguer makes while trying to predict the increase of oil demand is that the newly built homes will soon have people live in. While common sense tells us that newly built houses will be empty and ventilated for a while in order to let harmful gases out. In addition, during the time the homes are being built and interval before people move in, the oil market may change a great deal.
    Even though the demand for heating oil will increase according to the arguer, it is assumed that the revenue of Consolidate Industries will also go up when the arguer recommends investment. Without a detailed calculation of earnings and cost, the assumption cannot stand. Oil occupies only one part of the business. No matter how big the part is, the company has other businesses that are not mentioned in the statement. We have no information of them so we cannot conclude the whole condition of the company. If other businesses experience such a sharp decrease in the following years that the lost is larger than the earnings, investing the company will not be a wise choice. Furthermore, the business operation is the retail sale of home heating oil according to the statement, which will be influenced by the expenditure of buying the oil from other factories. If the price of wholesale increases a lot, the company may even get a loss.
    The final point that cannot be disregarded is that Consolidated Industries may have competitors in the oil retailing market. The arguer simply assumes that the increase in the demand of oil will reflect directly an increase of this company’s sales volume, which is not persuasive. If there are other companies selling the same product with lower price and a better reputation, consumers may choose others instead of Consolidated Industries.
In conclusion, the recommendation of investment in Consolidated Industries may have some reasons indicating it a good choice, but it must be constructed on a series of assumptions mentioned above. Without convincing that the temperature was low and will continue to be so, and that the company will earn in the following years, we cannot make the determination.