Tough Break (再战200610G) argument提交贴

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 dnait 于 2006-8-2 22:34 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend b ...

The arguer draws a conclusion that when consumers know the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, the greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow. To justify this statement,  the arguer represent us these红色部分删掉 evidence: consumers in California have been willing to pay twice more in price for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast for the past five years and this trend began shortly after the bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. And scientists have design a process to kill the bacteria to increase safety of Gulf Coast oysters, so people prefer to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters. I think these cites citations are not unpersuasive. 我觉得这样的开头很平淡，加上很多重复了题目的语句，使自己的文章打折扣了
The first fundamental problem of this argument is that the arguer did 时态？not give us evidence that whether is the direct cause and effect that the fact past five years, consumers were willing to pay more to the Atlantic Coast was connected  with the event the bacteria has been found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters.句子很长也很乱，我的试试看(…evidence that there is the direct causal relationship between consumers’ willingness to pay more for the AC oysters and the fact that bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters.) That maybe a coincidence If Atlantic Coast oysters are rare and far tasteful, and these oysters deserve double price, it is possible for people to pay for that. 三个断句，最好用关系词连一起 (It is possible a coincidence that ACO are rare and more tasteful so that people are willing to pay more for them.)还缺少总结性的话结束这段。

Second, we have no idea about the process for killing the bacteria. This process can guarantee the safety of the oysters, but other information like whether this process will remain leave some harmful chemical composition in the oysters, or change the character of the oysters such as flavor is not released. It is unreasonable to attract 删掉for customs to pay more for not fresh or stale oysters after this process.

The third reason is about whether the profit Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow. Even if Gulf Coast producers could raise the price to 删掉as same much as the Atlantic Coast, they still cannot would not earn more from that. For example, for killing the bacteria in the raw oysters, the cost of the oysters increases would increase. At the same time, the destroyed reputation is hard to restore the customers' confidence to the Gulf Coast so that people would not necessarily purchase them even if they have been sterilized. 把观点讲清楚The arguer still did not provide the information on the cost of the process and the restoration of the reputation. 很多推测性的观点应该用推测性或虚拟语气
To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility. The arguer drew the conclusion rashly, and ignored many aspects of the conclusion above. The arguer is supposed to show more evidence about the above-mentioned possibilities to strengthen the conclusion.
　
逻辑错误应该都找全了，就是论证太平淡，语言组织有不少错误，时态没有完全统一。对推测性的情况应该用比较弱的语气。
建议再多看看范文，多练习

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-9 22:04 发表

ARGUMENT167. A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on  ...

The author seemed giving an impressive claim of the effectiveness of lavender in curing insomnia. But the author’s argument was based on simple connection of facts and simply deducted the conclusion without meticulous evaluation of the facts. Careful scrutiny of the correlation of the facts provided by the author, reveals, however, that the reasoning was undermined by serious fallacy of false nexus.

Turning to the statistical samples which consisted of 30 volunteers, the arguer should provide the background of them - working class: CEO, profession and sickness: depression, maladjusted illness, etc. The reasons of insomnia should be identified for every volunteer. For example, some volunteers may have a monotonous life style and mundane job and some of them may have highly challenging job. Different type of working class of the volunteers should be notified as a pivotal factor in affecting their sleep and the pressure they undergo. In addition, their background of sickness should be identified, as some of them may under psychiatric treatment or may have family depression history.

Besides, their daily activities and diet should be considered as a vital part of controlled factors. Those activities may include their daily family activities and past time hobby, whereas their diet may affect their daily body reaction. Neglecting of this fact may diminish the arguer’s claim.

Nevertheless, sleeping environment may play a momentous role. The study might not be taken in the volunteers’ accommodated environment. They might feel uneasy in sleeping at a strange place and cause heavy tiredness which will affect the study result. Furthermore, they should sleep separately and not in the same room.

Turning to the study, lavender and sleeping medication should not be used together all the time as we cannot distinguish which factor play the role in helping the volunteers to have a better sleep.

The volunteers seemed like slept to sleep more and more soundly and tired during the study. This is a moot point whether they were having a sleep or merely resting on their bed.

Yet, the study should be carried out in a longer period of time and not just within 3 weeks. Longer time may have the possibility to show the effectiveness of the lavender and to compare the lavender with the previous medicine.

In a nutshell, the argument will not be creditable as it stands. To corroborate the claim strongly, the arguer should provide the prerequisites as mentioned above. To substantiate the argument, the arguer should not neglect the period of time of the study else the result of the study had just presented unconvincing results and mingled with erroneous reasoning.

You find almost all faults. The only questionable point is about those “should” you used. It means your strong suggestion, but how are you sure about the fesibilty of your suggestion? Maybeour task as an arguer is to pick out any possible fallacies instead of giving the argument any advice about how it should do. It’s different from what we want to conclude in the end, which is to improve the argument.——my idea for your consideration
You may also pay attention to using "no" and " not", no=not any, so when you use "no", there shouldn't be any; or just use "not any"

[ 本帖最后由 licheewu28 于 2006-8-11 14:04 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-9 22:12 发表

ARGUMENT6. The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremend ...

At first glance of the passage, the developers seemed providing a reasonable argument to entice the bank to unbar loan for them. Good beginning! They argued that they would be able to gain a tremendous profit in investing a jazz music club, but their claim was merely based on subjective opinions and simply correlated some past events. Meticulous evaluation of the nexus of the provided reasons, unveil, however, that the correlation was void and submitted to fallacy of false linkage in reasoning.

Turning to the first provided reason, they stated that the most redundant word nearest jazz club is about 65 miles away, but they should notice that the environment and background of that residential area may be different from the local place. The discrepancies in term of the interest of the residents, leisure time, life style, age, race, working class may play an important role in determining whether the local people are interested in jazz music, and have extra time and money to lavish with jazz music. Local residents may prefer other sorts of music club, e.g. blues, hard rock, sentimental, classical, new age etc. The applicants should provide a statistical survey about the local residents’ interest, age group and financial status in order to assert their reason else their claim is in vain.

Besides, they claimed that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe by relating the past jazz festival. They may be unaware of the fact that the fans who attended the jazz fest last summer may not be the local residents, those fans may come from other regions, or visitors, or tourists. There is no any redundant statistical evidence to show that more than 50% of 100,000 fans were the local residents. Neglecting this evidence will surely and deeply diminish their assertion. I ignored this point.

On the other hand, as a matter of facts, renowned jazz musicians can live in anywhere. They choose to live in Monroe does not mean that Monroe is the hotbed to ferment jazz music, or Monroe is surely the most popular place of jazz music. They choose to live in Monroe may be due to many reasons, e.g. good infrastructure and good place for living, high value property investment. I lost it again

Furthermore, they should also clearly note that the percentage of population listens to radio cannot be neglected. Perhaps many of the Monroe residents are watching TV, and there is not many of them listen to radio, yet, this minority, who listen to radio, cannot represent the point of view the whole population. Jazz program is aired every weeknight; perhaps it is just a promotion tactic of the commercial Radio Company or musical album company to attract audiences. Also a point I failed to notice
In addition, a nationwide study cannot represent the local point of view too. Even if the local people is similar to the national people and spend $1000 per year in jazz music, the applicants should show the statistical survey in comparing expenses for other music too. Perhaps, the local resident may spend more on other music, or other pastime hobby.

In a nutshell, as it indicates that the claim provided by developers was not acceptable. To enhance the argument, more statistical survey should be provided by them in term of the local people interest, age group and prerequisites mentioned above. To better assess the claim, they should not neglect the study of the spending behavior of the local resident.
Now you missed a point—how money can come

plutolUID: 2219361

162 A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.

Strategy:
1. The reliance of the survey should be considered, since the arguer does not supply any further detail for the people who received the questionnaire.
2. It is possible that there is other factors that lead to a feeling of less fatigue and depression for Asian people.
3. Eating soy might not be the best way to prevent fatigue and depression.

At first glance, the notion that North Americans(NA) should eat soy apprears to be a sound argument. The arguer claims that by eating soy on a regular basis, North Americans can prevent fatigue and depression. To substantiate the argument, the arguer demonstrates facts concerning a survey which provides a result that compared with NA, Asian people feel less fatigue and the fact that they eat soy per day. However, I find this is a point infested by flaws, and the argument is therefore unconvincing.

Firstly, the arguer fails to provide enough convincing statistics to illuminate that the result of the survey can be fully accepted. There still are many factors which cannot be neglected, such as the reliance of the survey, whether the survey can reflect the fact, and so on. The survey does not provide any further information about the people they questioned. It does not show other factors that might influence their feeling of fatigue, like their age, job, sex, and health condition. Therefore, it is entirely possible that in Asia, it is mainly old people who answerd the questionaire. And the result could not represent the health situation of the whole group in Asia. Hence, whithout deeper research and more convincing statistics, the result of the survey cannot be fully relied on.

Secondly, the arguer makes a "hasty generalization" that Asian people appear to be less fatigue because they eat soy.The author overlooks a myriad of other possible explanations for this phenomena--the difference among races, their living enviroments and other factors that may lead to the different feeling about fatigue and depression. Even though the survey can be accepted, its result does not necessarily link to the facts that Asian people eat more soy. There are other possible reasons, like the different rhythm of life. Maybe NA lives under bigger presure than Asian people
does. Or Asian people is more tolerant to fatigue and depression. Without ruling out other possible explanations, the arguer's conclusion that Asian people feel less fatigue because they eat soy is not well guaranteed.

Thirdly, even if soy is the reason why Asian people feel less fatigue, it does not mean to prevent fatigue and depression, NA also have to eat soy. As it is known, there are many other methods which can help people to alleviate their fatigue and depression, such as sports, music and so forth. It is not for sure that eating soy is the best way to prevent fatigue--at least so far there is no evidence to support this claim. And the arguer might conceal other possible effects, which are the furious competition of the work, the pressure of living in a busy life and a remote relationship with other people. All the possibilities may play a more important role in causing fatigue and depression. Lacking of consideration of other factors, the conclusion that eating soy can completely prevent fatigue is invalid.

In sum, the arguer's conclusion that "North Americans should eat soy to prevent fatigue and depression" is easily arguable. Before any final decisions or conclusions are made concerning preventing fatigue and depression, the arguer should evluate all possible alternatives and causes for this problem.

[ 本帖最后由 plutol 于 2006-8-11 11:34 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-9 23:36 发表

ARGUMENT68. The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview.

"To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for t ...

The planner had given an impressive claim with simple nexus of reasons to validate the suggestion for budget deficit of the city of Glandview by eliminating its funding for the Grandview Symphony (GS). Meticulous scrutiny of the modicum of reasons, reveals, however, that the given correlation of reasons was quite not convincing and was undermined by the fallacy of false linkage in reasoning.

First and foremost, there are a lot of alternatives to avoid a budget deficit. The planner should consider other solutions in fighting deficit. The planner should provide a study of other unworthy funding and reevaluate other past projects which highly consumed council budget and low in efficient efficiency to achieve their targets. Besides, the planner should not ignore the consequence of underrating the development of music, as the art of music cultivates the residents and the next generation.

Furthermore, the planner should compare monetary support from the city council with the private contribution. Private contribution may be merely a small portion of money compared with the commitment from the city council. Without a comparison of various sponsors, the argument will face with momentous fallacies.

On the other hand, although last year the private contribution to the Symphony increased by 200%, it does not prove that the Symphony will receive the same amount of monetary support in the following years, as the private support is not consistent. Private support may vacillate every year according to the public awareness and economic status of the society. Yet, there is no any redundant word yearly statistical study to reveal and to show that the public donation augments yearly. the word is repeated in a same sentence, try another one.

Turning to the attendance of the Symphony, the planner should not assume that the attendance is consistent another repeated word too. Last year, the attendance of the concerts-in-the-park doubled does not anticipate that the attendance of indoor performance will be doubled yearly too. The GS may need a lot of money to promote the music culture among those citizens. In addition, there is no any yearly statistical survey to reckon the increment of public audience either indoor performances or outdoor recitals.

Even if there is more audience attending the GS symphonies, the increase of ticket prices may just enough to cover the maintenance of the condition of those musical instruments and the yearly secretariat[/color](I think the word is a little unrelated with the topic) expenditure. The GS need extra financial support for musicians’ remuneration, the reimbursement of visiting musicians and promotions. Nevertheless, the city council should not neglect its role as a precursor in funding the GS and in encouraging public contribution to the GS.

In a nutshell, the argument would not be credible as it stands. To corroborate the claim strongly, the planner should consider the yearly consistency of the attendance of audience to the GS and the public donation. To substantiate the argument, the author should compare the solution of eliminating GS funding
The fallacies are almost well listed, but a better listed order would be more logical. For example: donation & attendance—GS expenditure –other alternatives (It’s only one suggestion, you may have other better choice)

[ 本帖最后由 licheewu28 于 2006-8-11 14:16 编辑 ]

munickyUID: 2122843

2
In this argument, the author made a recommendation that Deerhaven Avres(DA) should adopt restrictions on landscaping and housepainting. In order to bolster the recommendation the author points out that this restriction had been proved effective in Brookville(B),and it the average property values tripled. However, careful scrutiny reveals that this evidence lend little support to the recommendation.

First of all, the author unfairly assumes that no factors other than the restriction bring the increase of the property values, but fails to provide evidence to support. It is entirely possible that because more wealthy people move in B and adorned the house with costly materials, or perhaps the climate in B in convenient for living and the houses number is scant, then the property values may also increase. In short without necessary evidence, the author can not convince me that this restriction enhance the average property values,

Secondly, the author assumes the trend which happens seven years ago would also be the same today, and there are also insufficient evidence, It is just likely that 7 years later ,the taste of human have change a lot. Further more ,the author assumes the average property values tripled represent that it is a advantage, yet he also lacks evidence to support, perhaps, a part of them increase a lot while most of them decrease or are unchanged, or perhaps in the past, the property values was extremely low, then tripled as it is now, it still plays no significant role. In a words without more evidence, the author's recommendation is immature at best.

Finally, the author assumes the convention in B would be also effective in DA, yet the key differences undermine such an analogy. It is entirely possible that in DA people' s taste are different even the opposite with that in B, and they do not like even hate those restriction, it is also possible that the scene in DA is already beautiful, there is no need for such a restriction, then it will also ineffective.

All in all, the author's recommendation lacks sufficient evidence to support, in order to illustrate it he must provide more facts related to the living condition and people's taste in DA, and the true reasons for the value increases.

munickyUID: 2122843

In this argument, the author draws a conclusion that all patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics to be treatment .To bolster his conclusion, the author points out that two different group with different treatment have different effects, and the group which take the antibiotic, their recuperation time is 40 percent quicker than the other group which just take sugar pills. However, careful scrutiny reveals that these evidences lend little support to the author's conclusion.

In the first place, the author assumes that the first group recovers much quicker than the second one and that represent taking antibiotic is a much better treatment, yet he fails to provide necessary evidence to support. on one hand, the terms "40%" is too vague to be evidence, for if the second group's recuperation is very short, then their treatment  would also be good. On the other hand, we are not provided what problems are the people in the second group suffered, if they are not suffered from the muscle injuries, then there would be meaningless in this comparison. In short, without ruling out those alternative explanations, the author can not convince me that this treatment is much more efficient.

In the second place, the author assumes that this study indicate that the hypothesis is correct, but there are also not sufficient evidence to support .First of all, we are not provide assurance to indicate that this study has sufficient and representative sampling, if the number is too small the study would be unreliable, and if the people in the second group are old people while in the first group are the young then it also can not be believable. Secondly, even the study is reliable, yet taking antibiotic can treat the muscle injuries quicker can not be evidence to indicate that in all disease the secondary infections is the course of keeping people from healing.

Finally, the author draws a too hasty conclusion, he draws the conclusion based on a series of unconvinced evidence, and it is entirely possible that there are also some other much better treatment can bring the same effects. So without more reliable evidence , the author can not conclude that people should take the antibiotic.

All in all, the author's conclusion lacks necessary and reliable evidence to support, to better evaluate this conclusion, the author must make more detailed studies on the recovering situation of those patients.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

Hi, my dear friends, I'm back--after my writing exam. It should be not too difficult, depending on how much we have prepared ourselves. So my experience suggests you to try to practice and aquire the main argument methods in this part.

You will win!

The following is the topic I met with.

174.
The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college's governing committee.
'We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But eighty percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumni who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all-female, therefore, will improve morale among students and convince alumni to keep supporting the college financially.'