Tough Break (再战200610G) argument提交贴

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 zhulu 于 2006-8-1 08:51 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.  

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantl ...

In the argument, the arguer attempts to convince us the recommendation that Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of their employees to take the Easy Read. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites that examples of two graduates from the Speed-Reading Course. Moreover, the arguer also refers to the seemly relative low price and accessory benefit. The argument seems so well presented and plausible, but not well-reasoned at all. As it stands, the argument is suffered from several critical fallacies as following aspects.开头完整

In the first place, the validity of the example of these two graduates from the Speed-Reading Course cited by the arguer is open to doubt.虽然经常看到这样的例子句,但总是用不来.要好好学一下 Firstly, one graduate could read a 500 pages 500-page复合形容词 report in only two hours. It may be the fact that the five-hundred-page report is so easy that anybody could read during only two hours or less. Secondly, another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. There are many alternatives which would result in the rise of the graduate. It may be the fact that the graduate's work has no business with Speed Reading, and the graduate's diligent performance in the year in certain facet leads to the rise. Thirdly, even though the two graduates are quite successful and their successful results are, which is attributed to the Speed-Reading Course. The, the two successful results may happen in thousands of graduates. 这里应该是个让步从句+主句The rate of success resulted by from the Speed-Reading Course may be too low to make the conclusion enough convincing. Accordingly, the examples cannot render sufficient support to the conclusion.

In the second place, the arguer hastily draws the conclusion that the more one can read, the more information one could absorb in a single workday. There are many factors which would affect the efficiency of absorbing information, such as intelligence quality, the difficulty level of the information, the expression model of information resource, etc. 这点没想到 It may be the fact that speed could only hold a slight and neglectable part. Perhaps, the faster one read, the less one could remember. Finally, employees are comprised with various kinds. And many employees would never need to read fast in their jobs. Therefore, considering only speed as the key fact精练准确 would not be a strong evidence to sustain the conclusion.

In the third place, although unrelated benefit and seemingly low price are cited by the arguer, they might have no strong linkage with the final purpose. The final aim cited by the arguer is to improve productivity. On the one hand, the arguer cites that $500 per one 重复了employee is a small price compared with the benefit of the project. The total number of the company would be a surprising figure, and the benefit earned in the plan would be 删掉never balance the cost. On the other hand, the accessory benefit, such as a three-week seminar in Spruce City might do nothing to the purpose of improving productivity. Consequently, the evidence what the arguer claims about the price and a lifelong subscription of a magazine, would be unconcerned with the main topic of the argument.

To sum up, the argument has no sufficient evidence to offer support what the arguer claims here. To make the conclusion more convincing, the arguer should provide more details about the Speed-Reading program about the result of graduates. Moreover, the linkage of Speed-Reading and improving productivity should be clarified. Otherwise, the argument is logically unacceptable.
感觉就是一篇范文，开头和结尾的布局，正文的论述过程，句子的流畅性，词语的多样化，值得好好学习。赞！
有一点需要指出：错误类比，从其他公司到ACME。

licheewu28UID: 2131182

159.
The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.

Strategy:
1.the author provides no assurance that the study is reliable as it stands.
2.even if the prerequisite mentioned above is well established, the conclusion of the study is unfairly drawn. Other electrical facilities could be factors of high electricity consumption.
3.the author also neglects the factor of different climates and temperature in different areas of Claria.
4.there is another factor worth consideration, that is, electricity prices in different parts of the nation.

WORDS: 407          TIME: 0:30:00 +15(自己修改)         DATE: 2006-8-5

In this argument, the author attempts to convince Claria people that using both air conditioners and fans can help save money on electricity. To support the recommendation, a study is cited as evidence, which shows that families reporting cooling with both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than did those using fans or air conditioner alone. However, careful review into the evidence reveals that the advice is unwarranted at best.

To begin with, the author provides no assurance that the study is reliable as it stands. There is no specific description of any information involved in the study such as the number of families interviewed, how many people there are in each interviewed household, who conducted the study, what kind of questionnaire was designed, etc. Without such necessary information, the study is lacking of credibility, and thus cannot work efficiently as evidence to support the author's advice.

In the second place, even if the prerequisite mentioned above is well established, the conclusion of the study is unfairly drawn. Though the families using fans or air conditioners alone cost more on electricity than those using both, it is fully possible that the former consumed other electricity-powered facilities like washing machines, computers, televisions etc., which might render higher electricity consumption. In this way, the conclusion of the study is too dubious to ensure the author's suggestion.

Thirdly, the author also neglects the factor of different climates and temperature in different areas of Claria. Since the nation covers a vast physical area, different areas have far different weather probably, which leads to electricity cooling in different frequency. If the households using both fans and air conditioners are living in cool regions while the other two households in the study in hot ones, unequal electricity consumption would arise unavoidably. In this case, the conclusion in the study would be insignificant adequately to guarantee the advice given by the author.
In addition, there is another factor worth consideration, that is, electricity prices in different parts of the nation. If they are at unequal amounts of money, it is natural for households in different areas to make different payments. Thus, without taking this factor or even others into account, the author could not persuade us into taking his advice.

To sum up, this is an illogical argument. Without accurate statistics of studying electricity consumption and complete consideration of situations in different areas, the author could not offer a piece of comprehensive advice.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-5 18:48 发表

159. The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric co ...

The author seemed providing a plausible solution to help the citizens of Claria to save money on electricity by means of using both air conditioners and fans, but the author merely relied on limited anecdotes and simply correlated those experiences provided by Claria people from various places.  Close inspection of the nexus a novel word of the anecdotes, reveals, however, that the connection provided a meager support at best for the author arguments.

First and foremost, as the matter of fact, the nation of Claria covers a huge physical area, due to vast physical area,redundant so the cost of electricity may be charged differently as electricity may be provided by different commercial power companies. In addition, regional charges are dissimilar from places to places and these both reasons may be part of the factors why the cost of using air conditioners alone is lower than the cost of using fans alone. The author should provide a clear statistical survey to disclose the differences of electricity charged by companies.

Even the costs of electricity (charges of kilowatt per hour) are similar for any regions and any companies, the period of using fans alone, or air conditioners alone or both fans and air conditioners may be different. The differences may be due to habitual reason or seasonal factor. As Claria covers a huge physical area, some people may live in the region of cold weather, whereas some may live in the region near to tropical area, different residential places may contribute to the period of the electricity usage. Other than summer season, people in cold weather may seldom switch on fans and air conditioners whereas people in tropical area may heavily depend on good air cooling electrical devices which may highly consume electricity. Regional survey and comparison should be presented by the author to reveal the discrepancy of electricity usage.

Turning to another possibility, size of house is one of the factors in justifying how many air cooling electrical devices should be employed. It is unparallel to compare a small household using air conditioner either with a huge household using many fans or with a medium house using both air conditioner and fans. The author should take into account of the size of house as a vital factor in determining the cost of electricity. I hvn't thought of this point

Yet, other than air cooling electrical devices, contributions from other high electricity consuming devices, e.g. fridge, washing machine, will play an important role in diversifying the differences of the cost of electricity. The author may not ignore other electrical devices in his recommendation. His suggestion may not universally applicable to every citizen in Claria.

In closing, as it indicates that the suggestion given by the author was not acceptable for every citizen in Claria. To enhance the argument, more statistical survey should be presented by the author, e.g. the regional price of electricity and the regional residential area. To better assess the argument, it would be useful to survey the household size and other electrical devices before the author simply conclude with any suggestion, otherwise the recommendation will not be valid and commit a fallacy of false linkage in reasoning.
While you list almost all possible causes, you should point out lack of the study data though it is a smaller fallacy than others.
Other parts are well presented with complete beginning and end, logical argument.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-5 18:56 发表

51. The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hy ...

The author in the medical newsletter seemed providing a plausible reason in diagnosing with muscle strain patients and suggestion for the treatment, but the author failed to disclose detailed information about the study and simply correlated those results without deeper consideration. Close inspection of the nexus of the results, unveil, however, that the connection provided a meager support at best for the author’s suggestion which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.

To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the study’s results are statistically reliable. Both groups of patients should receive similarly professional consultation, e.g. both groups should accept treatment from a doctor specializes in sport medicine and not received two different professional consultations as specialist in sport medicine will be able to give better care – physiotherapy - to the injured patients compared to a general physician. Besides, psychologically patients in the first group may have higher confidence in Dr. Newland compared with the patients those(not to repeat words) in the second group. Mentally, the second group patients may not fully believe the treatment provided by Dr. Alton.

Even if the patients in the second group are confident with Dr. Alton, the seriousness of muscle injuries of patients should be identified and distributed uniformly in these two groups. The second group had lower average recuperation time may this is a aux.v., instead, an adv. is needed here—possibly/probably due to most of the patients had more serious injuries. If the first group consisted of less serious injured patients, logically the recuperation period should be shortened. The study should consider the distribution of patients according to the seriousness of the injuries.

Nevertheless, the discrepancy of the average recuperation time may be due to other factors, e.g. the first group patients may have good nutritious food and better personal care of injuries compared with the second group. If the first group patients are well educated in taking care of injuries, like it is not hard to reason that their recovery should be faster.

In conclusion, as it indicates that, (as is a conjunctive word)the advice given by the author commit a fallacy of false linkage in reasoning. The author should consider some other vital factors before advising reader to take antibiotics as part of the treatment. To more effectively refute the claim the author should provide clear evidence that the statistical study should distribute the patients evenly according to the seriousness of injuries. To better assess the argument, the author should consider similar professional treatment given to both groups of patients and those selected patients are having the same educated background about taking care of muscle injuries.
One absent point: the characteristics of antibiotics should be illustrated. And the other is different scoping from injuries to strains.
Only some small grammatical flaws exist. You always do good assignments

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子comments on 吱吱’s ARGUMENT159

Dear  吱吱,
TIME: 0:30:00 +15(自己修改)
OK, I understand what you meant. We focus on conceptual flaw instead of technical ones (grammatical and spelling).
You may write it as (文法+spelling,自己修改)

YiHua
RainY TowN

原帖由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-20 19:48 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT159 - The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.

Strategy:
1.the author provides no assurance that the study is reliable as it stands.
2.even if the prerequisite mentioned above is well established, the conclusion of the study is unfairly drawn. Other electrical facilities could be factors of high electricity consumption.
3.the author also neglects the factor of different climates and temperature in different areas of Claria.
4.there is another factor worth consideration, that is, electricity prices in different parts of the nation.
WORDS: 407          TIME: 0:30:00 +15(自己修改)         DATE: 2006-8-5

In this argument, the author attempts to convince Claria people that using both air conditioners and fans can help save money on electricity. To support the recommendation, a study is cited as evidence, which shows that families reporting cooling with both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than did those using fans or air conditioner alone. However, careful review into the evidence reveals that the advice is unwarranted at best.

To begin with, the author provides no assurance that the study is reliable as it stands. There is no specific description of any information involved in the study such as the number of families interviewed, how many people there are in each interviewed household, who conducted the study, what kind of questionnaire was designed, etc. Without such necessary information, the study is lacking of credibility, and thus cannot work efficiently as evidence to support the author's advice.

In the second place, even if the prerequisite mentioned above is well established, the conclusion of the study is unfairly drawn. Though the families using fans or air conditioners alone cost more on electricity than those using both, it is fully possible that the former consumed other electricity-powered facilities like washing machines, computers, televisions etc., which might render higher electricity consumption. In this way, the conclusion of the study is too dubious to ensure the author's suggestion. You may try to correlate them with the comparison of air cooling electrical products with the total contribution from other electrical gadgets, e.g. 40% from air cooling, 60% from the miscellaneous.

Thirdly, the author also neglects the factor of different climates and temperature in different areas of Claria. Since the nation covers a vast physical area, different areas have far different weather probably, which leads to electricity cooling in different frequency. If the households using both fans and air conditioners are living in cool regions while the other two households in the study in hot ones, unequal electricity consumption would arise unavoidably. In this case, the conclusion in the study would be insignificant adequately to guarantee the advice given by the author. Both of us forget about people living at highland compared with people living near to seaside (same latitude but different altitude).

In addition, there is another factor worth consideration, that is, electricity prices in different parts of the nation. If they are at unequal amounts of money, it is natural for households in different areas to make different payments. Thus, without taking this factor or even others into account, the author could not persuade us into taking his advice.

To sum up, this is an illogical argument. Without accurate statistics of studying electricity consumption and complete consideration of situations in different areas, the author could not offer a piece of comprehensive advice.

[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-8 14:38 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
WORDS: 397          TIME: 0:30:00 (这次终于基本成功)         DATE: 2006-8-7

strategy:
1.Subjective/Negligent: some other clubs though not calling themselves Jazz clubs might play Jazz in diverse forms to attract people since Jazz is so popular.
2.Arbitrary: there is no specific data of the study, even if so, money fans spend could be on other forms like purchasing Jazz recording disks. Diminishing scope from the nation to Monroe
3.Unilateral/Incomprehensive: Profits come from revenue overweighing cost and good management in the prerequisite of promising market.

The conclusion seems well presented but problematically deducted. The authors believe that a jazz music club would make a great profit in Monroe based on their evidence that jazz music is popular and a nation wide study shows much consumption of jazz fans. However, careful scrutiny into the correlation between the evidence and the conclusion reveals that the developers have made unwarranted conclusion.

To begin with, they are subjective and negligent for ignoring many other possible competitors of jazz clubs. Though there are no other jazz clubs within the distance of 65 miles, other clubs calling themselves in other names could probably offer jazz music amusements. For example, one might enjoy jazz songs as the background music in a general club. If so, there would be competition from other aspects. In this way, a great profit of a jazz music club would not definitely come easily as the developers think.

After that, they are also arbitrary in providing the evidence of the study's result and fans' spending on jazz music. Since no specific information about the study like the quantity of interviewees, what the questionnaire was, how people responded, is exhibited, its result would not be credible as it stands. Even if it stands strongly, how jazz fans spend their money on the music remains unknown. For that matter, it is fully possible that they consume most of the spending in buying jazz music disks, or go to enjoy jazz concerts. In this case, the amount for them to spend on jazz clubs could be a small portion. Therefore, the revenue of jazz music clubs could not be guaranteed, and neither would its profit.

In addition, they are unilateral and incomprehensive when they expect a tremendous profit. As we all know, profit comes about when revenue overweighs cost. Furthermore, to receive satisfactory revenue, enterprise management and other factors are all responsible except for a promising market. Nevertheless, the developers have not illustrated how they run a jazz music club, how they allocate its human resources and services, how they arrange the location of the club, so that their statement would not be necessarily ensured.

All in all, this is an unconvincing argument. Without accurate knowledge about the market of jazz music club, the developers could not make sure a good situation of their enterprise. Moreover, without specific plans of management, they would not persuade us into anticipating profitable business as well.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

Ususally, I hand in my work after I read it, with spelling and grammatical flaws as few as possible, so you can concentrate on other mistakes I cannot figure out by myself
:)

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子comments on 吱吱’s ARGUMENT6

Dear  吱吱,
TIME: 0:30:00 (这次终于基本成功)
Congratulation!!! I’m glad that finally you successfully to make it. You are my example! Ok I'll take this Argument.. but pls wait, it's quite hard for me to have a stable and unbroken internet line... ;(

YiHua
RainY TowN

原帖由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-20 19:48 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 –
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

strategy:
1.Subjective/Negligent: some other clubs though not calling themselves Jazz clubs might play Jazz in diverse forms to attract people since Jazz is so popular.
2.Arbitrary: there is no specific data of the study, even if so, money fans spend could be on other forms like purchasing Jazz recording disks. Diminishing scope from the nation to Monroe
3.Unilateral/Incomprehensive: Profits come from revenue overweighing cost and good management in the prerequisite of promising market.
WORDS: 397          TIME: 0:30:00 (这次终于基本成功)         DATE: 2006-8-7

The conclusion seems well presented but problematically deducted. The authors believe that a jazz music club would make a great profit in Monroe based on their evidence that jazz music is popular and a nation wide study shows much consumption of jazz fans. However, careful scrutiny into the correlation between the evidence and the conclusion reveals that the developers have made unwarranted conclusion.

To begin with, they are subjective and negligent for ignoring many other possible competitors of jazz clubs. Though there are no other jazz clubs within the distance of 65 miles, other clubs calling themselves in other names could probably offer jazz music amusements. For example, one might enjoy jazz songs as the background music in a general club. If so, there would be competition from other aspects. In this way, a great profit of a jazz music club would not definitely come easily as the developers think.

After that,you may consider to use ‘Nevertheless, Furthermore’, we often use ‘After that’ in story narration they are also arbitrary in providing the evidence of the study's result and fans' spending on jazz music. Since no specific information about the study like the quantity of interviewees, what the questionnaire was, how people responded, is exhibited, its result would not be credible as it stands. Even if it stands strongly, how jazz fans spend their money on the music remains unknown. For that matter, it is fully possible that they consume most of the spending in buying jazz music disks, or go to enjoy jazz concerts. In this case, the amount for them to spend on jazz clubs could be a small portion. Therefore, the revenue of jazz music clubs could not be guaranteed, and neither would its profit.

In addition, they are unilateral and incomprehensive when they expect a tremendous profit. (As we all know) “<-Basically” , profit comes about when revenue overweighs cost. Furthermore, to receive satisfactory revenue, enterprise management and other factors are all responsible except for a promising market. Nevertheless, the developers have not illustrated how they run a jazz music club, how they allocate its human resources and services, how they arrange the location of the club, so that their statement would not be necessarily ensured.

All in all, this is an unconvincing argument. Without accurate knowledge about the market of jazz music club, the developers could not make sure a good situation of their enterprise. Moreover, without specific plans of management, they would not persuade us into anticipating profitable business as well.

You have stated some different points of view, whereas I just focus on scrutiny about the reasons given in the passage. I really enjoy and learn a lot in reading your passage. Thanks… cheers…
I'm not sure whether ETS will accept my answer, but your argument and wording are quite convincing.

[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-9 10:39 编辑 ]

keaishuUID: 2213233

Argument37

不算难吧。

不过我之前一直没怎么练argument

直到最后三天在车上的时候……

licheewu28UID: 2131182

TOPIC: ARGUMENT68 - The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview.

"To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however, private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The Symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This action will surely prevent a budget deficit."
WORDS: 504          TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-8-8
Strategy:
1.The threshold problem is that the claim is groundless in assuming other income of the Symphony.
2.The second problem is that the claim is superficial for ignoring the previous financing situation of the Symphony.
3.The third problem is that the claim is inadequate in taking the reasons of funding into account.
4.The last problem is that the claim is arbitrary in believing that the elimination will prevent a deficit.

The argument is well presented but illogically reasoned. The planner claims in the memo that Grandview must reduce its funding for the local Symphony to avoid deficit in the following year on the basis of the fact that the Symphony could receive more funds from private contributions and increasing ticket prices. However, close review into the correlation between the fact and the claim reveals that they are unwarrantedly related.

The threshold problem is that the claim is groundless in assuming other income of the Symphony. Though there was increase of private contributions last year, it would unnecessarily be the same case in the future. Probably such increase was owing to certain consideration of the contributors and they could stop help the Symphony financially later if they abandon such consideration. Moreover, doubled attendance would not take place as expected; after all, it was the situation last year. In addition, though the Symphony announced to increase its ticket fees, whether people would attend it remains unclear. On the other hand, there could be increase of spending for the Symphony like purchasing more instruments, which would lead to high cost and then no improvement of its income. In a word, myriads of causes might be responsible for the Symphony's lacking of money so that eliminating funding for it would be unwise.

The second problem is that the claim is superficial for ignoring the previous financing situation of the Symphony. It is fully possible that it had been unprofitable all along. Even if it achieves improvement with the conditions mentioned above, it could not make its ends. For that matter, once funding is reduced, the Symphony would have difficult in running its operation. Thus, it would be harmful to take such a measure.

The third problem is that the claim is inadequate in taking the reasons of funding into account. It is probable that the city funded the Symphony not for the economic reason but other factors. Perhaps it was by virtue of its distinguishing role in music that the city supported the Symphony. Or maybe the place made use of it to encourage residents to enjoy music entertainment. In this way, the claim would result in music and even spiritual lose of the city.

The last problem is that the claim is arbitrary in believing that the elimination will prevent a deficit. There is no information released about the amount of the deficit and that of the funding. If the former overweighs the latter much, it would be useless to cut the funding. Even if the elimination would be helpful to some extent, simply the only measure could not guarantee the expected consequence. Maybe other measures such as decreasing other spending would be necessary. In this way, without enough comparison and considering other ways, the measure might be effortless.

To sum up, the argument is randomly deducted. To strengthen the claim, the planners should prove the Symphony's financial independence on the city and efficiency of the elimination in preventing the deficit. Otherwise, any advice would be unconvincing.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子comments on 吱吱’s ARGUMENT68

Dear  吱吱,
As usual… please wait…
YiHua
RainY TowN

TOPIC: ARGUMENT68 –
The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview.

"To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however, private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The Symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This action will surely prevent a budget deficit."
Strategy:
1.The threshold problem is that the claim is groundless in assuming other income of the Symphony.
2.The second problem is that the claim is superficial for ignoring the previous financing situation of the Symphony.
3.The third problem is that the claim is inadequate in taking the reasons of funding into account.
4.The last problem is that the claim is arbitrary in believing that the elimination will prevent a deficit.
WORDS: 504          TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-8-8

The argument is well presented but illogically reasoned. The planner claims in the memo that Grandview must reduce its funding for the local Symphony to avoid deficit in the following year on the basis of the fact that the Symphony could receive more funds from private contributions and increasing ticket prices. However, close review into the correlation between the fact and the claim reveals that they are unwarrantedly related.

The threshold problem is that the claim is groundless in assuming other income of the Symphony. Though there was increase of private contributions last year, it would unnecessarily be the same case in the future. Probably such increase was owing to certain consideration of the contributors and they could stop help the Symphony financially later if they abandon such consideration. Moreover, doubled attendance would not take place as expected; after all, it was the situation last year. In addition, though the Symphony announced to increase its ticket fees, whether people would attend it remains unclear. On the other hand, there could be increase of spending for the Symphony like purchasing more instruments, which would lead to high cost and then no improvement of its income. In a word, myriads of causes might be responsible for the Symphony's lacking of money so that eliminating funding for it would be unwise.

The second problem is that the claim is superficial for ignoring the previous financing situation of the Symphony. It is fully possible that it had been unprofitable all along. Even if it achieves improvement with the conditions mentioned above, it could not make its ends. For that matter, once funding is reduced, the Symphony would have difficult in running its operation. Thus, it would be harmful to take such a measure.

The third problem is that the claim is inadequate in taking the reasons of funding into account. It is probable that the city funded the Symphony not for the economic reason but other factors. Perhaps it was by virtue of its distinguishing role in music that the city supported the Symphony. Or maybe the place made use of it to encourage residents to enjoy music entertainment. In this way, the claim would result in music and even spiritual lose of the city.

The last problem is that the claim is arbitrary in believing that the elimination will prevent a deficit. There is no information released about the amount of the deficit and that of the funding. If the former overweighs the latter much, it would be useless to cut the funding. Even if the elimination would be helpful to some extent, simply the only measure could not guarantee the expected consequence. Maybe other measures such as decreasing other spending would be necessary. In this way, without enough comparison and considering other ways, the measure might be effortless.

To sum up, the argument is randomly deducted. To strengthen the claim, the planners should prove the Symphony's financial independence on the city and efficiency of the elimination in preventing the deficit. Otherwise, any advice would be unconvincing.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

ARGUMENT167. A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.

*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.  

Strategies:
1. The background of 30 volunteers is not provided, e.g. working class: CEO, professional; sickness: depression. The reasons of insomnia should be identified for every volunteer.
2. Their daily activities and diet should be considered as a part of controlled factors. They should sleep separately and not in the same room. Sleeping environment may play a vital role.
3. In this study, lavender and sleeping medication should not be used together. We cannot distinguish which factor play the role.
4. It seems like volunteers slept more and more soundly and tired.
5. The study should take a longer period and not just 3 weeks of time.

WORDS:425          TIME:0:32 (another 2 minutes to reach target!) DATE: 2006-8-09

The author seemed giving an impressive claim of the effectiveness of lavender in curing insomnia. But the author argument was based on simple connection of facts and simply deducted the conclusion without meticulous evaluation of the facts. Careful scrutiny of the correlation of the facts provided by the author, reveals, however, that the reasoning was undermined by serious fallacy of false nexus.

Turning to the statistical samples which consisted of 30 volunteers, the arguer should provide the background of them - working class: CEO, profession and sickness: depression, maladjusted illness, etc. The reasons of insomnia should be identified for every volunteer. For example, some volunteers may have a monotonous life style and mundane job and some of them may have highly challenging job. Different type of working class of the volunteers should be notified as a pivotal factor in affecting their sleep and the pressure they undergo. In addition, their background of sickness should be identified, as some of them may under psychiatric treatment or may have family depression history.

Besides, their daily activities and diet should be considered as a vital part of controlled factors. Those activities may include their daily family activities and past time hobby, whereas their diet may affect their daily body reaction. Neglecting of this fact may diminish the arguer’s claim.

Nevertheless, sleeping environment may play a momentous role. The study might not be taken in the volunteers’ accommodated environment. They might feel uneasy in sleeping at a strange place and cause heavy tiredness which will affect the study result. Furthermore, they should sleep separately and not in the same room.

Turning to the study, lavender and sleeping medication should not be used together all the time as we cannot distinguish which factor play the role in helping the volunteers to have a better sleep.

The volunteers seemed like slept more and more soundly and tired during the study. This is a moot point whether they were having a sleep or merely resting on their bed.

Yet, the study should be carried out in a longer period of time and not just within 3 weeks. Longer time may have the possibility to show the effectiveness of the lavender and to compare the lavender with the previous medicine.

In a nutshell, the argument will not be creditable as it stands. To corroborate the claim strongly, the arguer should provide the prerequisites as mentioned above. To substantiate the argument, the arguer should not neglect the period of time of the study else the result of the study had just presented unconvincing results and mingled with erroneous reasoning.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

ARGUMENT6. The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."


Strategies:
1. Residential area which is 65 miles away may be different from the local place. The differences in term of the interest of the residents, leisure time, living style, age, race, working class may be different. Local resident may prefer other music club, blues, hard rock, sentimental, classical, new age etc. The applicant should provide a statistical survey about the local residents’ interest. Jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, but the local may not be popular with Jazz.
2. Jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, but the fans who attended the jazz fest last summer may not be the local residents, those fans may come from other regions, or visitors, or tourists. There is no any statistical to show that more than 50% of 100,000 were the local fans.
3. Well known jazz musicians can live in anywhere, they choose to live in Monroe does not mean that Monroe is the hotbed to ferment jazz music, or Monroe is surely the most popular place of jazz music.
4. How much the percentage of population listens to radio? Perhaps many of them are watching TV. A few of them just listen to radio, and this minority cannot represent the whole population point of view. Airing nightly, perhaps it is just a promotion tactic of Radio Company, musical album company.
5. A nationwide study cannot represent the local point of view too. Even if the local people is like the national people and spend $1000 per year in jazz music, how about compared with other music?

WORDS: 553         TIME: 0:40 (still overtime...!)        DATE: 2006-8-08


At first glance of the passage, the developers seemed providing a reasonable argument to entice the bank to unbar loan for them. They argued that they would able to gain a tremendous profit in investing a jazz music club, but their claim was merely based on subjective opinions and simply correlated some past events. Meticulous evaluation of the nexus of the provided reasons, unveil, however, that the correlation was void and submitted to fallacy of false linkage in reasoning.

Turning to the first provided reason, they stated that the most nearest jazz club is about 65 miles away, but they should notice that the environment and background of that residential area may be different from the local place. The discrepancies in term of the interest of the residents, leisure time, life style, age, race, working class may play an important role in determining whether the local people are interested in jazz music, and have extra time and money to lavish with jazz music. Local residents may prefer other sorts of music club, e.g. blues, hard rock, sentimental, classical, new age etc. The applicants should provide a statistical survey about the local residents’ interest, age group and financial status in order to assert their reason else their claim is in vain.

Besides, they claimed that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe by relating the past jazz festival. They may be unaware of the fact that the fans who attended the jazz fest last summer may not be the local residents, those fans may come from other regions, or visitors, or tourists. There is no any statistical evidence to show that more than 50% of 100,000 fans were the local residents. Neglecting this evidence will surely and deeply diminish their assertion.

On the other hand, as a matter of facts, renowned jazz musicians can live in anywhere. They choose to live in Monroe does not mean that Monroe is the hotbed to ferment jazz music, or Monroe is surely the most popular place of jazz music. They choose to live in Monroe may be due to many reasons, e.g. good infrastructure and good place for living, high value property investment.

Furthermore, they should also clearly note that the percentage of population listens to radio cannot be neglected. Perhaps many of the Monroe residents are watching TV, and there is not many of them listen to radio, yet, this minority, who listen to radio, cannot represent the point of view the whole population. Jazz program is aired every weeknight; perhaps it is just a promotion tactic of the commercial Radio Company or musical album company to attract audiences.

In addition, a nationwide study cannot represent the local point of view too. Even if the local people is similar to the national people and spend $1000 per year in jazz music, the applicants should show the statistical survey in comparing expenses for other music too. Perhaps, the local resident may spend more on other music, or other pastime hobby.

In a nutshell, as it indicates that the claim provided by developers was not acceptable. To enhance the argument, more statistical survey should be provided by them in term of the local people interest, age group and prerequisites mentioned above. To better assess the claim, they should not neglect the study of the spending behavior of the local resident.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

ARGUMENT68. The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview.

"To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This action will surely prevent a budget deficit."

Strategies:
1. There a lot of other methods to avoid a budget deficit. The planner should consider other solutions too in fighting deficit. Underrating the development of music in cultivating the residents may cause backslide in culture.
2. The planner should compare monetary support from the city council with the private contribution. Private contribution may be merely a small portion of the commitment from the city council.
3. Last year the private contribution/donation to the Symphony increased by 200%, but it does not prove that the Symphony will receive the same amount of monetary support in the following years, and the private support is not consistent. The attendance of the Symphony is not consistent too. There is no any yearly statistical survey to anticipate the increment of public audience.
4. The increase of ticket prices may just enough to cover the maintenance of the condition of those musical instruments and the yearly secretariat expenditure. They need financial support for musicians’ remuneration/reimbursement, visiting musicians, promotions.

WORDS:469          TIME:0:40 (a lot of room to improve!) DATE: 2006-8-09

The planner had given an impressive claim with simple nexus of reasons to validate the suggestion for budget deficit of the city of Glandview by eliminating its funding for the Grandview Symphony (GS). Meticulous scrutiny of the modicum of reasons, reveal, however, that the given correlation of reasons was quite not convincing and was undermined by the fallacy of false linkage in reasoning.

First and foremost, there are a lot of alternatives to avoid a budget deficit. The planner should consider other solutions in fighting deficit. The planner should provide a study of other unworthy funding and reevaluate other past projects which highly consumed council budget and low in efficient to achieve their targets. Besides, the planner should not ignore the consequence of underrating the development of music, as the art of music cultivates the residents and the next generation.

Furthermore, the planner should compare monetary support from the city council with the private contribution. Private contribution may be merely a small portion of money compared with the commitment from the city council. Without a comparison of various sponsors, the argument will face with momentous fallacies.

On the other hand, although last year the private contribution to the Symphony increased by 200%, it does not prove that the Symphony will receive the same amount of monetary support in the following years, as the private support is not consistent. Private support may vacillate every year according to the public awareness and economic status of the society. Yet, there is no any yearly statistical study to reveal and to show that the public donation augments yearly.

Turning to the attendance of the Symphony, the planner should not assume that the attendance is consistent too. Last year, the attendance of the concerts-in-the-park doubled does not anticipate that the attendance of indoor performance will be doubled yearly too. The GS may need a lot of money to promote the music culture among those citizens. In addition, there is no any yearly statistical survey to reckon the increment of public audience either indoor performances or outdoor recitals.

Even if there is more audience attending the GS symphonies, the increase of ticket prices may just enough to cover the maintenance of the condition of those musical instruments and the yearly secretariat expenditure. The GS need extra financial support for musicians’ remuneration, the reimbursement of visiting musicians and promotions. Nevertheless, the city council should not neglect its role as a precursor in funding the GS and in encouraging public contribution to the GS.

In a nutshell, the argument would not be credible as it stands. To corroborate the claim strongly, the planner should consider the yearly consistency of the attendance of audience to the GS and the public donation. To substantiate the argument, the author should compare the solution of eliminating GS funding with other options.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 czjsimon 于 2006-8-2 17:53 发表
51.The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypot ...

Before subscribing prescribing the antibiotics to all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain, the evidence from the study should be examined more carefully.开头精彩，昨天刚看到一篇范文这样的开头 The study is not well devised 这个词用得不错，但是下面重复了好几次，避免用词重复是有必要的so that fails to reveal the real effect of the antibiotics convincingly. Moreover, the hasty generalization from the hypothesis to the conclusion that all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain should be treated with antibiotics may result in an abuse of this medicine.

First of all, to separate the partial effect of the antibiotics, the study should be controlled恩，调查类错误可以好好用上这个词, with a balance between the experimental and the control groups. The two groups should be controlled with the doctors at the same level, patients with similar severities of hurt, ages and physical statuses and with the same treatments just except for whether or not taking antibiotics. Otherwise, the different results may simply reflect the different effects of the levels of the doctors and their treatments or differences in severities of the muscle strain and abilities to recover. In the study, the second group is treated by a general physician who may have little experience in dealing with muscle stain while the first group is treated by a doctor who specializes in this field. The different time of recuperation may just reflect the experience of the doctors and the effects of different treatments given by them. It is also possible that the characteristics of the patients are not well controlled. The average severity of the first group may be much lighter than that of the second one; so the patients of the first group are less likely to suffer from the secondary infections which may prevent them from healing quickly. Or the patients of the first group are much better in physical status on average and thus are more likely to heal quickly from the muscle strain. Therefore, the study fails to balance the first and second groups and control all the other possible factors so that it leaves the effect of the antibiotics unpersuasive.一口气论证下来挺流畅的，可能层次清晰一些感觉会更好

Furthermore, even if the study has been devised well and proved the hypothesis statistically, it is too hasty to generalize the use of antibiotics to all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain. First, the hypothesis just mentions that secondary infections may affect some patients, not all the patients. It may be of no use to subscribe the antibiotics to the patients who are not infected. Moreover, some patients may be allergic to the antibiotics and should not be treated in this way. Second, the hypothesis just focuses on the severe muscle strain, not all kinds of muscle strain. The patients with ordinary muscle strain may be unlikely to suffer from the secondary infections and thus don't need antibiotics. The hasty generalization would result in an abuse of antibiotics and may hurt the health of the patients rather than help them recover from the muscle strain quickly. 这点没想到

In sum, to substantiate the hypothesis, the study should be well devised with a balance between two groups controlling all other relevant factors. And much more other examinations should be done before the hypothesis is generalized to all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain.

和范文很相近了。能用两段正文把错误一一点清楚，真厉害。用词造句别具一格，结构安排有特色，一定能拿个高分——我的愚见，希望ETS能赞同