Tough Break (再战200610G) argument提交贴

munickyUID: 2122843

对你给我第一点的意见我有些不同的观点，我也是学生物的，这个生理特征我也知道，但我认为对argu中不能靠自己的专业知识判断是否有错，应看作者是否在文中给出充分的论据证明，而关于这一点上新东方时老师就讲过像这样“it is well know" 这样的话本身就犯了“无据前提”的错误，大家觉得呢，给些意见。

licheewu28UID: 2131182

ARGUMENT145
提纲：
1. 无据前提：打鼾的人吃得多，不运动。没有证据表明这样的事实。
2. 打鼾使人白天觉得累，没有证据支持
3.调查类错误：调查数量，具体数据，调查对象代表性
4.他因：打鼾不一定是长胖的唯一原因，如果打鼾使人累，加上少吃多运动，势必影响健康。

Readers can learn the conclusion that snoring people should eat less and exercise more according to the argument. To support his conclusion, the author shows that people are more possible to gain weight from a study and a short break during the night make snoring people feel tired in the daytime. A careful reading of the argument tells that it is problematic in evidence.
At the beginning, there is no evidence indicating that people who snore definitely eat more and exercise less than an average person. Although they are possibly to be fat than others, it is other causes leading to gaining weight. For example, they are engaged in quiet work instead of those requiring a lot of labor. Therefore, the author provides no prerequisite to guarantee his own conclusin.
Secondly, the author cites the so-called study as his supportive evidence. However, the study is absent of convincing factors. How many subjects are interviewed, the ages, sexes and jobs of the subjects, what kind of questions the study gives------all these are necessary to prove reliability of a study. With no details of cited study, the author cannot base on it to draw such a rash conclusion.
Thirdly, as the argument indicate, snoring people can feel too tired in the day to exercise. There is no proof showing that people get tired because of snore. The claim is simply the author's idea without persuesiveness.
In addition, even if snoring leads one to being tired, the author's recommendation will not help a snoring person well. It is not snoring that causes one's fatigue without ruling out other possible factors like overworking, malnutrition, overentertaining. What's more, since a snoring person is tired , little food and too much exercise will make him more tired and even unhealthy. Before offering a sound recommendation, the author should take all kinds of influences into consideration.
To sum up, the conclusion is unconvncing to persuade one into taking the recommendation. To prove the feasibility of his idea, the author should offer more evidence of a study and all-around health suggestion

licheewu28UID: 2131182

Thanks a lot for your comments, they are quite valuale to me.

And sorry for putting my work by mistake, I'll try to keep them in the right BBS later

munickyUID: 2122843

In this argument, the author draws a conclusion that a cooling trend in the mid-sixth century was caused by a volcanic eruption. To bolster the argument, the author cites the surviving Asian records that mention a loud boom, and he/she also points out that there were no records which mention a flash that would be created by the collision. However, close scrutiny reveals that the argument suffers some logical flaws described as following.

First of all, the author unfairly assumes that no other factors rather than a large meteorite colliding or a volcanic eruption may cause a lower temperature. But that is not the case, for these two reason just can create dust which may cover the atmosphere. It is entirely possible that at that time, it is just the time of glacier when the activity of the sun is weak. In a word , there are lots of factors may lead to the low temperature, and without eliminating those possibilities, the assumption of the author is dubious.

Secondly, even though  meteorite colliding or a volcanic eruption are the reason of the cooling trend, the author draws a hasty conclusion just according to some surviving records. Perhaps the loud boom just came from a  meteorite colliding, and no record of the flash does not indicate no meteorite colliding necessarily, it is also likely that those relevant records were missing, have not been found, or even the people at that time thought that flash was nothing special and did not record it. Thus, without providing more evidence, the conclusion is not convincing.

Finally, the author's conclusion rests on the assumption that the volcanic eruption does can cause the low temperature, yet we are not assured with any convincing evidence. If one volcanic eruption can create so much dust that cover the whole earth, and if they would last long enough for the temperature got lower, there would be myriads of questions to ask, so unless the author provide more evidence, I would doubt about his/her conclusion.

All in all, the evidence the author cited lend less credibility to his/her conclusion, to better illustrate the conclusion, the author must provide more convincing evidence about the factors causing the cooling trend. To better evaluate this conclusion, we also need more details about those records and the author should check there are more factors or records.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子修改 Li Chee Wu 的 Argument145

dear Li Chee Wu,

Firstly, thanks x 1000oo.... for helping me to review my Issue17.
Generally, I think, the write up was not as what I expected, those ideas were not organized into a proper flow.

I'll take your Argument145, sorry I'm late...

If you've any sharings, you may get my email from 相见不如怀念 through 'QQ'.

QQ <- Is it some sort like ICQ, MSN or Yahoo msg?

regards,
YiHua
RainY TowN

原帖由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-19 13:52 发表
ARGUMENT145
提纲：
1. 无据前提：打鼾的人吃得多，不运动。没有证据表明这样的事实。
2. 打鼾使人白天觉得累，没有证据支持
3.调查类错误：调查数量，具体数据，调查对象代表性
4.他因：打鼾不一定是长胖的唯一原因，如果打鼾使人累，加上少吃多运动，势必影响健康。

Readers can learn the conclusion that snoring people should eat less and exercise more according to the argument. To support his conclusion, the author shows that people are more possible to gain weight from a study and a short break during the night make snoring people feel tired in the daytime. A careful reading of the argument tells that it is problematic in evidence. (it is evidently problematic)

At the beginning, there is no evidence indicating that people who snore definitely eat more and exercise less than an average person. Although they are possibly to be fat than others, it is other causes (there are other causes) leading to gaining weight. For example, they are engaged in quiet work instead of those requiring a lot of labor (laborious/arduous work) . Therefore, the author provides no prerequisite to guarantee his own conclusin. conclusion

Secondly, the author cites the so-called study as his supportive evidence. However, the study is absent of convincing factors. How many subjects are interviewed, the ages, sexes (gender) and jobs of the subjects, what kind of questions the study gives (ask)------all these are necessary to prove reliability of a study. With no details of cited study, the author cannot base on it to draw such a rash conclusion.

Thirdly, as the argument indicate indicated, snoring people can feel too tired in the day to exercise. There is no proof showing that people get tired because of snore. The claim is simply the author's idea without persuesiveness convincing proofs/persuasive verification.

In addition, even if snoring leads one to being tired, the author's recommendation will not help a snoring person well. It is not snoring that causes one's fatigue without ruling out other possible factors like overworking, malnutrition, over-entertaining. What's more, since a snoring person is tired , little food and too much exercise will make him more tired and even unhealthy. Before offering a sound recommendation, the author should take all kinds of influences into consideration.

To sum up, the conclusion is unconvncing unconvincing to persuade one into taking the recommendation. To prove the feasibility of his idea, the author should offer more evidence of a study and all-around health suggestion

[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-7-21 12:33 编辑 ]

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子修改路路的 Argument47
Dear Zhu Lu,
I will try to review yours. Hopefully I can finish it before tomorrow noon...

regards,
YiHua
RainY TowN

原帖由 zhulu 于 2006-7-19 13:14 发表
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
my strategies:
1.flase dilemma: the cooling must collerate with collision or eruption?
2.the conjecture of inexistence of collision is open to doubt.
3.the analysis of a loud doom could be consistent with eruption instead of collision is open to doubt.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
正文：

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - WORDS: 483          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-19

The argument is well presented, but not well reasoned. In the argument, the arguer attempt to convince us the conclusion that the cooling of earth was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support the conclusion, the arguer cited that a huge volcanic eruption could create a large dust cloud throughout earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. Moreover, the arguer also assumes that large meteorite collision would probably create a sudden bright flash of light instead of a dimming of the sun. As it stands, the argument suffers several critical fallacies.

In the first place, the arguer commits a fallacy of false dilemma. The arguer assumes that a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere.  However, the arguer has overlooked other alternatives which would also result in the large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere. For example, the melting of ice in polar areas would cause large quantities of water's evaporation which not only could block enough sunlight but also lower global temperatures significantly.  If so, just considering a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with earth would not solve the problem.

In the second place, the arguer assume assumed that a sudden bright flash of light would be less probable to have happened because no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. As we know, the historical records could only be referred as documentation instead of a detailed certainty. It may be the fact that the predecessor cannot confirm the phenomenon and did not record the flash into the history. It may also be the fact that the flash happened so sudden just in one second in late night that nobody had seen it at all. perhaps it happened at day time, but people could not notice as sunlight had over-shined that bright flash Hence, even though no detailed records had ever reported about the flash, it does not mean the fact that the flash did not happen and the large meteorite collision did no exist. large meteorite always accompanied with large and significant crater too

The last but not the least important, the arguer also assume that a loud boom would be consistent with a volcanic eruption, then the volcanic eruption would be more probable than a large meteorite collision. However, the arguer may neglect the fact that there are many reasons which may cause a loud boom. Take the large meteorite collision for example, if the collision made a considerable exploder which also may cause a loud boom. Then the eruption could not be the only possibility to cause both the loud boom but also the earth's cooling.

To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lack enough credibility to support what the arguer claims here. To make it more convincing, the arguer need to render more detailed information of all the possibility which would cause the earth's cooling. Moreover, more certain and related records should be provided to prove the existence of eruption. Otherwise, the argument is logically unacceptable.

dear路路,

In fact, I found that, I’m at the horn of dilemma in answering this Argument 47. I’m not sure whether we have to oppose the other alternative, i.e. meteorite. If we shoot the assumption of meteorite, shall we provide the third reason? Hopefully, there is someone can make my mind clearer.

YiHua



[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-7-21 12:46 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 雨城浪子 于 2006-7-19 02:21 发表

Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in
the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler.
Although few historical records survive from that ti ...

In this argument, the assumption that the cooling of the earth climate was probably caused by a volcanic eruption is at first glance to be a noticeable conclusion. The author relies only on some limited historical facts and tried to associate those events instead of analyzing and considering the consequences of the occurring events. Close inspection of the connection of the events, reveals, however, that the linkage provides a scant support at best for the author’s argument.

Turning first to the considered aspect in the argument, the author stated that large dust cloud covering throughout the Earth’s atmosphere would block enough sunlight to the Earth, but the author did not notice that large dust cloud can also hinder heat from escaping to the universe. Large cloud has higher possibility to increase the temperature of the Earth instead of lowering the temperature, and this phenomenon is just similar to greenhouse effect.

Even if the argument of volcanic eruption is valid, to create such dust cloud to enclose the Earth’s atmosphere and hindering sunlight to penetrate the atmosphere, it really needs a lot of dust. Even a tremendous volcanic eruption had occurred, it should be capable and continuous to provide such myriad amount of dust, and it was not just a sudden boom of eruption. Besides, dust is heavier than atmospheric air, and it would fall in the surface of the Earth within a few days. To resist sunlight from piercing the atmosphere, dust should be supplied constantly for a few weeks or even a few months to lower the temperature of the Earth. too scientific for me

Turning to another possibility, if the extreme cold temperature was due to meteorite, the location of the crater caused by collision of meteorite might be located at somewhere out of Asia, e.g. North or South America. That was why Asia did not record such a bright and sudden flash. Even if the collision happened, meteorite would bring a huge amount of kinetic energy to stir up the whole climate of the Earth, extremely cold temperature would not happen, but extremely hot temperature would take place. overthrow the argument from a new angle?

Turning to the loud boom, it had high possibility been caused by earthquake. And the sound of earthquake can propagate through a longer distance on earth compared to volcanic eruption as the medium of the sound propagation of the eruption is atmospheric air. The loud boom of volcanic is local and it would not travel to a longer distance compared with earthquake wave.

Eventually, as it indicates that the argument and reasons given by the author are weak. To strengthen the argument, more archeology evidences should be provided by the author. To better access the argument, it would be useful to use scientific simulation to simulate an immense volcanic eruption and to calculate the amount of dust have to be supplied, the number of days needed and the heat transfer calculation (i.e. heat provided by the sunlight and heat released to the universe) in order to lower down the Earth temperature.
I should say your writing is superbly wonderful. But as for this analytical one, you slip away the key point but focus on the physical points such as "dust", "air". I think we should pay more attention to other more logically fallacious problems rather other the points are out of common reach. Anyway, it's only my personal view. for your reference.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

Strategies:
1.        无因果：没有资料证明boom与eruption相关；boom发生的时间，是否在boom之后气温下降，如果boom发生在气温下降前或同时，两者就没有关系
2.        证据缺失：没有现存的记录不等于没有记录，也许记录被破坏，或发生在当时未进入文字记录的地区如Arctic
3.        他因：人为原因，或污染
WORDS: 354          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-19

The author in this argument maintains that the earth cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably owing to a volcanic eruption. He considers that there are two possible causes which led to cooling, either an eruption or a meteorite colliding. According to his reasons of no existing records about a flash related to colliding and a loud boom, he comes to his conclusion. Careful review into his words discloses unreliability of his argument.
First of all, the author links the loud boom with a volcanic eruption unfairly. The argument provides no convincing evidence indicating that the boom means an eruption. Only if the boom made sound after the eruption would it be possible for the author's conclusion to be well grounded. However, it is fully probable that eruption happened after or at the same time of the boom. If so, cooling would not take place by virtue of the eruption. In this way, the author's conclusion is completely overwhelmed.
In the second place, the author claims that there are no extant records of a flash which was produced by a large meteorite collision. He equals "no extant records" to "no records" simply and rashly. But actually, although there are no left records, maybe ever-being records have been destroyed before people discovered them, or perhaps the collision arose up in such places without no literal records as Arctic at that time. Without ruling out these or other possibilities, there was still meteorite collision having happened. Accordingly, the conclusion of this argument is not guaranteed.
In addition, the author makes an unfair either-or mistake by attributing cooling to the only mentioned causes. There could be other activities which resulted in cold temperature. For example, as human beings had more and more effects on the Nature, they could destroy some elements of stable temperature and lead to cooling. Or environmental pollution caused by them could also  bring cold weather.
All in all, the author does not deduce his conclusion in a reasonable and persuasive way. To make his insist acceptable, he should relate the boom with eruption accurately and eliminate any other possible causes leading to cooling.

AnddieUID: 2135826

超了一点时间，不过还是尽力在半个小时内完成的。

32. Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.

提纲：
1。可以远程购买不代表去的次数少了
2。送货会增加燃料的消耗量
3。当地居民多余的时间可以用来作其他事，增加燃料使用


The arguer cites about the possibility of a reduction in the consumptions of vehicle fuel in Hiparia, as a result of the prevalence of Internet and ordering merchandise. To justify this, he provides a fact that Hiparians now prefer order merchandise over the phone and internet, which might lead to a decrease of the times people go shopping by vehicle. I consider this argument suffering from several flaws as follows.

The major insufficiency of the arguer's conclusion is the assumption that the times people go shopping will decrease, due to the increase of people's ordering merchandise on the phone and Internet. However, this is not always the case because we cannot ignore probability of people's going shopping just as much as they were. As a matter of fact, no one can by everything he wants only through such kinds of media that are not face-to-face, since there're some unpriced things like rings, cars, computers demanding the presence of customers to check them all over. On the other hand, a great many  people, especially young girls and teenagers, regards shopping as a kind of fun, while the original purpose of it is considered to be the second place. In this case, the development of phone-ordering or Internet-ordering seems to have little influence on them.

Another flaw that the auger suffers is the neglect of the assumption of fuel by the delivery cars. It is common sense to us that the cost of delivery of might become a major expense to the merchants, most of which derives from the cost of fuel. Most time merchants will take every method to optimize the route of delivery in order to save the cost of delivery, from which we can conclude the cost of transportation might compensate decrease of the fuel consumed by customers.

Finally, even if the possibilities of the two cases above are eliminated, the author offers no firm evidence to consolidate his conclusion when another condition may emerge that Hiparians are more willing to go outside by cars or buses, along with the time they saved on the way of going shopping. To spend the extra time Hiparians might hope to go to have fun, like going to films, going to amusement parks etc. This will no doubly intensify the transportation of the town and cause an augment on the fuel assumption.

All in all, the arguer’s conclusion is not valid considering the three possibilities above, neither does he supply any evidence to prove the assumption that people will be less willing to go shopping with the apply of phone-ordering and Internet. To better assess the argument we would need to know more about the change of the status of traffic of the town, as well as the merchants' reaction to this condition.

munickyUID: 2122843

In this argument, the author draws a conclusion that people in Hiparia (H) would not drive to and from shopping mall and the consumption of vehicle fuel in this city would also be reduced. To bolster the conclusion, he/she points out that people now do more shopping by ordering merchandise, which are delivered by mail or delivery service, from mail and Internet. However, close scrutiny reveals that the author's conclusion suffers from some logical problems as following.

In the first place, the author's conclusion that Hiparians would not need to drive to and from the shopping mall rests on the assumption that people prefer shopping with mail or Internet to going to the shopping mall. Nevertheless, we are not assured about that and this might not be the case at all. As we know, shopping in the mall is not just for getting the merchandise for most people, but just spend their spare time watching myriads of colorful stuffs. This is one kind of life, so even if more and more people begin to use mail or Internet to get some merchandise they need, it does not indicate that mail or Internet would replace the mall necessarily. Moreover, when people use the mail or Internet to buy things, they can not see the real stuff before they get what they want and they also can not bargain, so people would worry about the quality or security of merchandise they ordered In that case, I still doubt about that if people would stop driving to go shopping in the mall.

In the second place, the author also draws a hasty conclusion that the consumption of vehicle fuel in H would be reduced. On the one hand, there are not sufficient evidence to show that people in H would rather stop driving to go shopping in the mall. Even though they do, then more and more people choose to order stuffs by mail or Internet, and these merchandise must be sent to people's house by delivery service which also consume some fuel. Thus, the total consumption of fuel would not go down necessarily. On the other hand, there are myriads of ways which use vehicles and consume fuel, for example, perhaps more and more people in H have bought the car and drive to work, or perhaps factories in H bought  more and more to deliver resources of production. In a word, there are millions of ways to consume fuel, and without eliminating those possibilities, the author's conclusion is dubious at best

All in all, the evidence cited in this argument lends little support to the author's assumption and conclusion. Thus in order to better illustrate his/her conclusion, the author should provide more details about the true preference of people in H, and evaluate the total amount of fuel consumption. Unless we get more information, we can not judge the variation of the fuel consumption,

licheewu28UID: 2131182

ARGU32.Hiparia,shopping malls,mail-order catalogs 论断：
1.忽略前提：人们开车比以前少了。人们网上购物和邮购多了，并不等于开车少了。论断没有证明网上购物和邮购已经覆盖了人们生活的全部，也没有表明人们对这些方式的态度，也就不能保证这些方式成为主要生活方式的可能。
2.其他因素：除了购物开车外，有很多其他需要开车的时候，如旅行，公用、商用用途，工业油耗占很大比例。
3.即使人们开车少了，油耗少了，邮递公司的油耗在增加
The author in this argument draws his conclusion that the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia(H) will decrease. To prove his conclusion, he provides such a phenomenon that people do more of shopping through the Internet and by mail. It seems a little attractive to believe the claim, but careful review through his information and conclusion tells us that the argument is poorly warranted.
On one hand, the author ignores a prerequisite that people drive less than previously since there is no evidence supporting so. Although people shop more by ordering from mail order and in the Internet, it does not mean that they do less purchasing in other ways. Probably they remain as frequent as before to stores and supermarkets.  Moreover, the argument also fails to indicate that there is a tendency that people will shop in the new ways instead of traditionally driving to buy things. And likewise, there is no information that shows people are preferring the new lifestyle. Since it is not guaranteed that shopping by mail and through the Internet will become popular among people, reduction of vehicle fuel consumption will not take place as predicted.
What's more, the author fails to take other uses of vehicle fuel into consideration. It is obvious that people drive not only to shop, but also to travel, to work and to visit friends. Besides, there are commercial and industrial transportation using fuel, which cover a great percentage of fuel consumption. Without eliminating these or other possibilities, the author cannot make sure that there will be a tendency of decrease of fuel consumption.
On the other hand, even if people use up less vehicle fuel, its total amount will not definitely go down as the author thinks. By comparison, there will be an increase of delivery vehicle fuel when shopping fuel consumption declines. If the amount of increase is more than that of decrease, it is impossible for such a trend to take place. In this case, the author provides no assurance of his own conclusion.
As it stands, this argument is unfairly deduced. To prove its reliability, the author should take all kinds of other factors into account and rule out any other possible causes leading to increase of fuel consumption. Otherwise, his prediction will be invalid.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子修改吱吱的 ARGUMENT47

Dear  吱吱,
Thanks for your comments and reminders. I should focus on tackling the fallacies not scientific suggestions in my ARGUMENT47. Actually, I’m quite confused about Argument47, I’m not sure whether we have to oppose meteorite too. Hopefully someone will help me to solve the puzzle.
regards,
YiHua
RainY TowN

原帖由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-20 10:21 发表

47. Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

Strategies:
1.        无因果：没有资料证明boom与eruption相关；boom发生的时间，是否在boom之后气温下降，如果boom发生在气温下降前或同时，两者就没有关系
2.        证据缺失：没有现存的记录不等于没有记录，也许记录被破坏，或发生在当时未进入文字记录的地区如Arctic
3.        他因：人为原因，或污染
WORDS: 354          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-19

The author in this argument maintains that the earth cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably owing to a volcanic eruption. He considers that there are two possible causes which led to cooling, either an eruption or a meteorite colliding. According to his reasons of no existing records about a flash related to colliding and a loud boom, he comes to his conclusion. Careful review into his words discloses unreliability of his argument.

First of all, the author links the loud boom with a volcanic eruption unfairly. The argument provides no convincing evidence indicating that the boom means an eruption. Only if the boom made sound after the eruption would it be possible for the author's conclusion to be well grounded. However, it is fully probable that eruption happened after or at the same time of the boom. If so, cooling would not take place by virtue of the eruption. In this way, the author's conclusion is completely overwhelmed.

In the second place, the author claims that there are no extant records of a flash which was produced by a large meteorite collision. He equals "no extant records" to "no records" simply and rashly. But actually, although there are no left records, maybe ever-being records have been destroyed before people discovered them, or perhaps the collision arose up in such places without no literal records as Arctic at that time (you may rephrase this sentence) . Without ruling out these or other possibilities, there was still meteorite collision having happened. Accordingly, the conclusion of this argument is not guaranteed. (This paragraph is quite convincing, I like it. If your argument was right, there is a paradox, every archeology evidence will not be ultimate, well, this is an academic issue.)

In addition, the author makes an unfair either-or (either makes an unfair reasoning or mistakenly attributes mistake by attributing) cooling to the only mentioned causes (cause) . There could be other activities which resulted in cold temperature. For example, as human beings had more and more effects on the Nature, they could destroy some elements of stable temperature and lead to cooling. Or environmental pollution caused by them could also bring cold weather (I think, during A.D 500, the environmental pollution might not so significant, and this reason is a bit 牵强) .

All in all, the author does not deduce his conclusion in a reasonable and persuasive way. To make his insist acceptable, he should relate the boom with eruption accurately and eliminate any other possible causes leading to cooling.

[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-7-21 17:24 编辑 ]

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子修改吱吱的 ARGUMENT32

Dear  吱吱,
In fact, you have done a great job and you finished it within 30 min. I have to start to restrict myself …
p/s: I think you have already touched the main point, you may consider to write more ideas to weaken the author assumption.
regards,
YiHua
RainY TowN

32. Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.

论断：
1.忽略前提：人们开车比以前少了。人们网上购物和邮购多了，并不等于开车少了。论断没有证明网上购物和邮购已经覆盖了人们生活的全部，也没有表明人们对这些方式的态度，也就不能保证这些方式成为主要生活方式的可能。
2.其他因素：除了购物开车外，有很多其他需要开车的时候，如旅行，公用、商用用途，工业油耗占很大比例。
3.即使人们开车少了，油耗少了，邮递公司的油耗在增加

WORDS: 354          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-19

The author in this argument draws his conclusion that the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia(H) will decrease. To prove his conclusion, he provides such a phenomenon that people do more of shopping through the Internet and by mail. It seems a little attractive to believe the claim, but careful review through his information and conclusion tells us that the argument is poorly warranted.

On one hand, the author ignores a prerequisite that people drive less than previously since there is no evidence supporting so (you may rephrase this sentence). Although people shop more by ordering from mail order and in the Internet, it does not mean that they do less purchasing in other ways. Probably they remain as frequent as before to (shop in)stores and supermarkets.  Moreover, the argument also fails to indicate that there is a tendency that people will shop in the new ways instead of traditionally driving to buy things. And likewise, there is no information that shows people are preferring (people prefer) the new lifestyle. Since it is not guaranteed that shopping by mail and through the Internet will become popular among people, therefore, reduction of vehicle fuel consumption will not take place as predicted.

What's more(<- slang, not sure whether ETS will accept 口语化), the author fails to take other uses of vehicle fuel into consideration. It is obvious that people drive not only to shop, but also to travel, to work and to visit friends. Besides, there are commercial and industrial transportation using fuel, which cover a great percentage of fuel consumption. Without eliminating these or other possibilities, the author cannot make sure ( cannot determine) that there will be a tendency of decrease of fuel consumption.

On the other hand, even if people use up less vehicle fuel, its total amount will not definitely go down (reduce) as the author thinks. By comparison, there will be an increase of delivery vehicle fuel when shopping fuel consumption declines. If the amount of increase is more than that of decrease, it is impossible for such a trend to take place. In this case, the author provides no assurance of his own conclusion.

As it stands, this argument is unfairly deduced. To prove its reliability, the author should take all kinds of other factors into account and rule out any other possible causes leading to increase of fuel consumption. Otherwise, his prediction will be invalid.

[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-7-21 17:38 编辑 ]

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

ARGUMENT32. Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.

Strategies:
1. Even if shopping has been reduced drastically, driving to shopping mall is not the only cause of fuel consumption. There are a lot of activities which need tremendous supply of fuel, e.g. going to working place, school, freight and shipment, business. There is no any survey evidence to prove fuel consumption for shopping is more than these other causes. Shopping may be a weekend activity and not be a frequent and everyday activity.

2. There a lot of purchases cannot be processed through internet and mail-order catalogs, as these two methods are just alternatives, like, expensive goods/items/commodities which need and meticulous inspection, detail observation, testing and present of customers; purchase in high volume. Purchasing through Internet and mail-order is too risky, especially credit card transaction, low security and private data may be exposed; and the display of websites and catalogs may not be complete; limited publication; low outreach.

3. Other than shopping, people may have other purposes in going to shopping mall, e.g. gathering, passing time, dating, social activities, movies, foods, meeting celebrities, events.

Strategies have been changed during the writing up
dear 吱吱,
Hope you can prosper in your job and able to balance your time.
regards,
YiHua


WORDS: 610          TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-7-19

The argument was well presented, but the correlation of reasons is undermined with fundamental flaws. In the argument, the arguer attempted to use limited facts without deeper interpretation and simply concluded that the shopping activities will reduce, therefore the consumption of automobile fuel will decrease too. Close assessment of the association of those facts, indicates, the argument suffers several vital fallacies.

Turning to one of the considered facts in the argument, the arguer stated that people in Hiparia begin to do their shopping by ordering through mail catalogs and internet. He assumed this trend of shopping will increase, but his assumption was not supported by any statistical evidence. Detail study of these new ways of shopping should be provided by the arguer to convince the readers, meanwhile, comparison of the increment of these new shopping trends with the ordinary shopping behavior should be supplemented. Otherwise anticipation of fuel consumption will not be valid.

Even if shopping activities have been reduced drastically and finally it may become a weekend activity and not be a frequent and everyday activity, driving to shopping mall is not the only cause of fuel consumption. There are a lot of activities which need tremendous supply of fuel, e.g. going to working place, sending children to school, freight and shipment and business activities. Nevertheless, there is no any survey evidence to prove fuel consumption for shopping is more than these other causes. Neglecting these few aspects will cause the arguer to commit a fallacy of false linkage of the reason.

Other than shopping, the arguer should not overlook other reasons why people go to shopping mall. Hiparia people may have other purposes in going to shopping mall, e.g. gathering, passing time, dating, social activities, movies, foods, meeting celebrities, attending events (lucky draw) held by shopping mall. These activities may possibly parallel with the growth of the population of Hiparia.

Moreover, the arguer should not disregard survey of the service of public transport and the distance of the shopping mall to residential area. If the service of public transport deprived, people in Hiparia may tend to use personal vehicle to go to shopping mall. Besides, the more shopping complexes are built farther away from the residential area, the higher the possibility of Hiparia people will use personal transport to reach shopping mall. Eventually, consumption of fuel, not expected by the arguer, will increase.

On the other hand, the arguer did not consider the weakness of internet and catalogs ordering. There a lot of purchases cannot be processed through internet and mail-order catalogs, as these two methods are just alternatives. For instance, purchasing expensive commodities, e.g. jewelries, needs meticulous inspection, detail observation and testing, whereas, purchasing goods for emergency use and daily needs (sea products and foods) will immediately require the present of customers.

In addition, purchasing through Internet and mail-order is too risky, especially credit card transaction, which may not be maintained under high security and private data may have risk to be exposed too. And the display of websites and catalogs may not be complete, limited publication and low outreach. These problems will cause Hiparia people to visit shopping mall.

In sum, to strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide a survey evidence to show the decrease of shopping activities, and not just simply assume and anticipate the outcome. The arguer has to show that shopping activities is the highest consumption of vehicle fuel compared with other causes else contribution of shopping activities to fuel consumption may not be significant. To better assess the argument, the arguer should provide the survey of the service of public transport and the consideration of the location of the shopping mall.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

ARGUMENT200. Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.

Strategies:
1. Study of the reasons why men faint while visiting the dentist should be provided. It may due to personal awareness of oral hygiene.

2. The survey should provide the type of illness and seriousness of the teeth problem among those samples, like the number of minor oral surgery which may cause ghastly pain and cannot be alleviated by using high dosage of anesthetic.
Do women tend to treatment like scaling? Or repairing forge teeth?

3. The samples of the statistics should be stated clearly, e.g. the age of samples.

4. The survey should also consider the skill and technique of the dentists, environment of the operation room, pre-education and explanation given to the patients to prepare them.


Although the argument was well presented, the correlation of reasons is undermined with fundamental flaws. In the argument, the arguer endeavored to use limited facts without deeper interpretation and simply concluded that those dentists should emphasize both the effectiveness in anesthetic technique and the sensitivity of their staff when they target and attract male clients. Close assessment of the association of those facts, indicates, however, the argument suffers several vital fallacies.

Turning to one of the considered aspects, the statistics showed men visitation to dentist was faded out compared with women. But, the arguer failed to provide any studies of the reasons why men visitation was lesser than women. Lesser visitation to dentist may indicate lower personal awareness of oral hygiene, or lesser time allocated by men to do dentistry check out as more time would be spent on working and other distractions. Besides, the survey should show the social status and education background, job and income of the statistical samples, as higher number of women visitation to dentist may come from housewife and not working class women.

On the other hand, the arguer should not simply suggest that the level of distress suffered by men was higher than women without detail assessment. If men have lower personal awareness of oral hygiene, they may only visit dentist when the tooth problem became too serious. Moreover, the survey should provide the type of illness and seriousness of the teeth problem among those statistical samples. For instance, the number of minor oral surgery which may cause ghastly pain and cannot be alleviated by using higher dosage of anesthetic nor better anesthetic techniques, indeed, better caring of the staffs cannot improve the situation too. If low personal awareness was the main cause, it was not hard to anticipate that why men is more distressed compared with women. Nevertheless, the survey did not show what type of treatment women tend to look for, it might be minor scaling or repairing forge teeth, and these sorts of treatment would not contribute to the level of distress.

The survey should also consider the pre-education and explanation given to the patients to prepare the clients ready for oral operation. The samples of men and women should equally receive information, prescription and explanation of oral surgery and oral hygiene.

In addition, the experience of the statistical samples should be stated clearly and the survey should show the number of visitation of the clients too. Those clients who visited dentist more than once may not easily be distressed by uneasy feeling compared to the first time clients. Clients may trust those highly skilled dentists. Perhaps, men may have only revisited those dentists they trust most.

Eventually, the linkage of the argument about the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to advertisement is not plausible. Any serious oral surgery clients will succumb to pain and all attempts of local anesthetic are in vain. Instead of the suggestion proposed by the arguer, a better network and relationship should be built among dentists and their current clients, as new clients may follow advice provided by experienced clients.

In sum, to strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide a survey evidence to show the type of illness and the level of seriousness of oral surgery met by the statistical samples, and not just simply assume and anticipate that men were easily be distressed compared with women. To better assess the argument, the arguer has to render that pre-education and awareness should be instilled among future clients rather than to suggest the dentists to stress on effort to provide a better anesthetic skill and caring staff.