Tough Break (再战200610G) argument提交贴

licheewu28UID: 2131182

TOPIC: ARGUMENT67 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newspaper serving the villages of Castorville and Polluxton.

"Both the villages of Castorville and Polluxton have experienced sharp declines in the numbers of residents who pay property taxes. To save money and improve service, the two villages recently merged their once separate garbage collection departments into a single department located in Castorville, and the new department has reported few complaints about its service. Last year the library in Polluxton had 20 percent fewer users than during the previous year. It follows that we should now further economize and improve service, as we did with garbage collection, by closing the library in Polluxton and using the library in Castorville to serve both villages."
WORDS: 399          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-31

strategy:
1. there is no information about the current situations of the libraries in the two villages, and thus whether the combination should be made or not is not easily decided.
2.the merge of the garbage collection departments in the two villages is not definitely a success as the editor considers.
3.the author ignores the differences between the garbage collection departments and the libraries. Since their functions are far different, their problems are dissimilar.
4.it is hasty to claim that the library in P should be closed; after all there is no detailed description of the performances of the two libraries.

In this letter the editor recommends that they should use the library in Castorille (C) only instead of the original two libraries of Pollutox(P) and C to improve service and obtain further economizing. To support his/her recommendation, he/she provides the evidence that the villages had a single C department of garbage collection. However, the advice is problematic with many fallacies.
To begin with, there is no information about the current situations of the libraries in the two villages, and thus whether the combination should be made or not is not easily decided. If the libraries could perform well and be popular among local residents, it might be unnecessary to make such a change; otherwise, the change would lead to dissatisfaction of people and losing amount of money.
Secondly, the merge of the garbage collection departments in the two villages is not definitely a success as the editor considers. Although there have been few complaints reported by the time, it is fully possible that the department did not conduct a reliable report, in which only a small portion of residents were interviewed, or most of them just did not show their real attitudes to the reporters. Thus, the report is unreliable without sufficient information. Furthermore, probably some deep problems could not be found in such a short period so that people had not expressed their accurate mind. In addition, in the report, the author manifests no statistics about cost of the merged garbage collection department. Therefore, not only the report is unguaranteed to support the advice, but also the situation of the merged garbage collection department is unclear.
Thirdly, the author ignores the differences between the garbage collection departments and the libraries. Since their functions are far different, their problems are dissimilar, so that what can be efficient in the former would not be necessarily suitable to the latter. In this case, even if the merged garbage collection department proves a success, the combination of the two libraries would not succeed in saving money and better service.
Last but not least, it is hasty to claim that the library in P should be closed; after all there is no detailed description of the performances of the two libraries. If the one in P is more popular among residents at lower cost than the other in C, closing the former would result in loss.
To sum up, this is a fallacious argument. Without any study of the residents' ideas over the libraries, the author could not reach a wise suggestion.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

我找出三点：

1.研究过程中V的饮食、生活习惯没有记录，是否用过其他药物或一些对L效用产生影响的食品；
2.每周V的身体和睡眠状况详细记录和比较；
3.时间不够长，不足以反映情况

dnaitUID: 2206459

7月19日同主题作业：
ARGUMENT 32
32.Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving
to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their
shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the
Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery
service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from
shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the
consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.

直到最近，Hiparia的居民都开车到商场购物。然而，他们现在开始更多地通过邮寄订货目录和互联网定购商品。这些商品通过邮寄或快递服务递送到他们手中。对很多商品来说，Hiparia居民不再需要开车往来于商场；因而将会导致Hiparia汽车燃油消费量的下降。

This argument's conclusion is that there will be a reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia for the reason that Hiparians do not need to drive between the shopping malls and home any longer. To justify this conclusion the argument points out that Hiparians did most of shopping by driving and they begin to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the internet. And these purchase are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service, so for may of purchase, people in Hiparia no longer need to drive to and from the shopping mall. I find the argument unpersuasive, for several reasons.
First of all, Hiparians do not need to drive to and from the shopping are not directly connected with the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia. It is possible that ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and internet which can are delivered by mail or a delivery service seems more convenient than to drive a car out. But the arguer did not give us more proof that what Hiparians ordered from the mail or internet is mostly same with the merchandise showed in the shopping mall. If not, Hiparians still have to drive their cars to buy them at the shopping malls. And we still have no idea that if people are satisfied with this new shopping way and prefer to order stuff at home instead of driving to the shop mall.
Seondly, it is unreasonable to make a conclusion that if Hiparians no longer need to drive the car to and from the shopping mall, the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia will reduce. We are not sure if this part consumption of the vehicle is really play an key part in the whole consumption of vehicle feul in the Hiparia. Auger is supposed to present more proof to confirm us. In fact, plenty of factors can lead to the increase of the consumption of the vehicle fuel. Even though all people order their stuff at home, increasing mail or delivery service still will possibly make the consumption of vehicle fuel rise, not decrease. The arguer is supposed to provide us convictive evidence about the information on the transportation of the mail and delivery companies.
Thirdly, even if shopping from mail or internet may really help Hiparians on long go outside to buy stuff, it is likely that more Hiparians use the spare time to go travel or do business something. As a result, consumption of vehicle fuel would not save that much. The arguer should show more information about the manner on how Hiparians use their cars.

In the final analysis, the conclusion of the arguer is not well supported. The arguer did not show more details on times Hiparians drive to and from the shopping mall, and if the times really decrease. And arguer overlooked the consumption of vehicle fuel of the mail and delivery company followed by the accumulating service and the manner on how Hiparians use their cars. It is rash to make this conclusion. More enough evidence are needed to confirm us.

1h　没限时

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 zhulu 于 2006-8-1 08:51 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.  

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantl ...

In the argument, the arguer attempts to convince us the fact that people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training an experience in writing for TV rather than for print media. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites a study that watching TV is referred for 23 times while reading fiction is referred for only 1 time. Moreover, the arguer assumes that TV industry is much more convincing than publishing and bookselling industries. The argument seems so well-presented and plausible似是而非，用在这里不当，reasonable好一点, but not well-reasoned at all. As it stands, the arguer suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first place, the validity of the study is open to doubt这个用法不错. In the first place, conversation may not be the best and most authoritative criterion to comment whether an industry is profitable or not. There are many other factors in Economics which could be referred as criterion, such as rate of profits versus cost, average income, taxing of the industry, financial support from the government and so on. In the second place, although watching TV is referred for 23 times and reading fiction is referred for only 1 time, it does mean the fact that the TV industry is better than publishing and bookselling industry. The higher times of TV's being referred could only mean the fact that watching TV is a quite hot topic in the group of people. It cannot be equaled as whether an industry is prosperous or not.没说清原因 In the third place, the responders in the study may not represent for the whole community in the society. It may be the fact that the group of the responders is comprised of people who love watching TV very much by chance. 数量不充足没有说明，这点提一下，攻击要害Accordingly, the study cannot offer sufficient support to the arguer’s conclusion.

In the second place, the arguer makes several critical false analogy between a few concepts. On the one hand, although watching TV is referred for 23 times, it  cannot be equaled with the industry of TV; although reading fiction cannot be equaled with the publishing and bookselling industry. The linkage between watching TV and TV industry is not obvious and significant; the connection between watching fiction and publishing and bookselling is between watching TV and the TV industry and between reading fiction and print media  is not well-proved. There are too many uncertainty uncertainties between these analogies. It may be the fact that TV industry is actually not convincing as the arguer assumed, although the number of the reference is higher, because the income of the TV may be only from advertisement without any subsistence from government and public. On the other hand, perhaps the publishing and bookselling industries are quite convincing because public and government invest a great amount of financial support into the occupation. 这句有何用意？Additionally, there are many kinds of books in the world besides fiction. It may be the fact that all the other kinds of books are sold quite well except fiction. Consequently, the conclusion is based on false analogy between watching TV and TV industry and between reading fiction and publishing and bookselling.

In the third place, the arguer hastily draws the conclusion that writing for TV is more convincing than for print media. Firstly, there are many occupations concerning TV industry. Although the TV industry may be profitable, the concerning careers cannot be all convincing. It may be the fact that writing is less popular than writing for publish and print media. Secondly, although writing for TV may be much more profitable than writing for print media. Those requirements needed by TV industry for those applicant may be basic pre-training in the field of print media, because writing for print media may be the elementary skill for writing TV. Therefore, the recommendation may not be reasonable to accept.这段很乱，层次和句子都有不少问题。我想你要论证的是电视行业不一定保证作家们有好的发展， 有其他因素影响；为媒体写作是为电视创作的基础。
To sum up, the evidence cited by the arguer cannot render strong enough support to what the arguer claims here. To make the conclusion more convincing, the arguer should provide more detailed information about the evaluation of TV industry and the（前面也有类似问题） publishing and bookselling industry. The connection between writing and those industries should also be clarified. Otherwise, the argument is logically unacceptable.结尾不错。
路路是不是三十多分钟就完成这篇的，太强了，我三十分钟内顶多400个字，而且来不及回头检查，羡慕！
就是到后面这段就乱了，语法和词语再斟酌一下

czjsimonUID: 2215612

51.The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

1、论据不足以支持假设的结论. 实验组和对照组的设计不平衡,应该其他都保持一致,一组用药,一组不用药.医生水平,病人严重程度,数量,以及提供的其他治疗都应该保持一致.最后看用药组的恢复时间是否显著的快于不用药组.

2、即使说该假设可以被证明，那也不能得出所有肌肉拉伤的患者都需要服用抗生素的结论。假设只是说二次感染可能造成恢复缓慢，并没有说一定；只说有些病人，并没有所有病人；只说严重的肌肉拉伤，没有针对普通的肌肉拉伤。

字数：520    时间：45分    2006-8-2
Before subscribing the antibiotics to all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain, the evidence from the study should be examined more carefully. The study is not well devised so that fails to reveal the real effect of the antibiotics convincingly. Moreover, the hasty generalization from the hypothesis to the conclusion that all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain should be treated with antibiotics may result in an abuse of this medicine.

First of all, to separate the partial effect of the antibiotics, the study should be controlled, with a balance between the experimental and the control groups. The two groups should be controlled with the doctors at the same level, patients with similar severities of hurt, ages and physical statuses and with the same treatments just except for whether or not taking antibiotics. Otherwise, the different results may simply reflect the different effects of the levels of the doctors and their treatments or differences in severities of the muscle strain and abilities to recover. In the study, the second group is treated by a general physician who may have little experience in dealing with muscle stain while the first group is treated by a doctor who specializes in this field. The different time of recuperation may just reflect the experience of the doctors and the effects of different treatments given by them. It is also possible that the characteristics of the patients are not well controlled. The average severity of the first group may be much lighter than that of the second one; so the patients of the first group are less likely to suffer from the secondary infections which may prevent them from healing quickly. Or the patients of the first group are much better in physical status on average and thus are more likely to heal quickly from the muscle strain. Therefore, the study fails to balance the first and second groups and control all the other possible factors so that it leaves the effect of the antibiotics unpersuasive.

Furthermore, even if the study has been devised well and proved the hypothesis statistically, it is too hasty to generalize the use of antibiotics to all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain. First, the hypothesis just mentions that secondary infections may affect some patients, not all the patients. It may be no use to subscribe the antibiotics to the patients who are not infected. Moreover, some patients may be allergic to the antibiotics and should not be treated in this way. Second, the hypothesis just focuses on the severe muscle strain, not all kinds of muscle strain. The patients with ordinary muscle strain may be unlikely to suffer from the secondary infections and thus don't need antibiotics. The hasty generalization would result in an abuse of antibiotics and may hurt the health of the patients rather than help them recover from the muscle strain quickly.

In sum, to substantiate the hypothesis, the study should be well devised with a balance between two groups controlling all other relevant factors. And much more other examinations should be done before the hypothesis is generalized to all the patients diagnosed with muscle strain.

dnaitUID: 2206459

TOPIC: ARGUMENT170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
WORDS: 353 +40         TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-2

The arguer draw a conclusion that when consumers know the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, the greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow. To justify this statement,  the arguer represent us these evidence: consumers in California have willing to pay twice more in price for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast for the past five years and this trend began shortly after the bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. And scientists have design a process to kill the bacteria to increase safety of Gulf Coast oysters, so people prefer to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters. I think these cites are not unpersuasive.

The first fundamental problem of this argument is that the arguer did not give us evidence that whether is the direct cause and effect that the fact past five years, consumers were willing to pay more to the Atlantic Coast was connected  with the event the bacteria has been found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. That maybe a coincidence If Atlantic Coast oysters are rare and far tasteful, and these oysters deserve double price, it is possible for people to pay for that.

Second, we have no idea about the process for kill the bacteria. This process can guarantee the safety of the oysters, but other information like whether this process will remain some harmful chemical composition in the oysters, or change the character of the oysters such as flavor It is unreasonable to attract customs to pay more for not fresh or stale oysters after this process.

The third reason is about the profit Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow. Even if Gulf Coast producers raise the price to as same as the Atlantic Coast, they still cannot earn more from that. For example, for killing the bacteria in the raw oysters, the cost of the oysters increases. At the same time, the destroyed reputation is hard to restore the customers' confidence to the Gulf Coast. The arguer still did not provide the information on the cost of the process and the restoration of the reputation.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility. The arguer drew the conclusion rashly, and ignored many aspects of the conclusion above. The arguer is supposed to show more evidence about the above-mentioned possibilities to strengthen the conclusion.
　
开始限时写文章了，发现感觉真的不一样。结尾没写完，最后超时补的，偶打字一般。正在练快点，有些地方还想再写都没时间了。。。。

dnaitUID: 2206459

第一次限时成功。不过字少的可怜。。。大家来猛批吧。。
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 378          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-2

The arguer recommented in the nesletter that the daily use of Ichthaid will prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To jusitify this recommentatin, the argue provided those reasons. A study reports in nearby East Meria, people see the doctor only once or twice per year and there fish comsumption is very high. Eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. And for colds are the frequent reasons for absences from school and work.
The first fundamental problem of the argument is that high fish consumption is not direct connected with the times people there visit the doctor for the treatment of cold every year. The arguer do not give us enough information on diet and whether they are all willing to see a doctor for the treatment of colds
It is possible that small part of habitants there prefer to tready and most of them choose stay at home and describe medicine themselves. So, it is unreasonable to make the conclusion that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds.
Besides, it is not persuasive to recommend use of Ichthaid as a good way to prevent colds. The auger only give us one piece of imformation that Ichthaid is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. Even if eating fish can really help exclude the colds, the Ichthaid may disown the effective composition to prevent the cold. After all, it is abstracted from the fish. The aruger should give us more details on the component of the Ichthaid.
The third problem is the cause an effec with the daily use of Ichthaid and the lower absenteeism. The arguer think that since colds are the reason most frquently given for absence from school and work, the daily use of Ichthaid, as a effective way to prevent colds will reduce the times of absences. Actually, it is easy to find a excuse for absences. The excuse like have a ailment like catching a cold is easier one. So, it is possible that most of people do not really have a cold. Consequently, recommend to use Ichthai affirmly cannot do any work to the absenteeism.
To sum up, the arguer is supposed to give us more details on the relationship between the cold and the fish consumption and the Ichthaid.

dnaitUID: 2206459

好像感觉这里的人气没有I那边的高呢。。。。

[ 本帖最后由 dnait 于 2006-8-2 23:08 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 dnait 于 2006-8-2 22:38 发表
第一次限时成功。不过字少的可怜。。。大家来猛批吧。。
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment ha ...

The arguer recommended in the newsletter that the daily use of Ichthaid will prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To justify this recommendation, the arguer provided those reasons. A study reports in nearby East Meria, that people see the doctor only once or twice per year and there fish consumption is very high. Eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. And for colds are the frequent reasons for absences from school and work. 这部分可以用些关联词连成句，而不是这样零碎。第一段结尾应该提一下对论断的态度
The first fundamental problem of the argument is that high fish consumption is not directly connected with the times people there visit the doctor for the treatment of cold every year. The arguer do did not give us enough information on diet and whether they are all willing to see a doctor for the treatment of colds. It is possible that a small part of habitants there prefer to tready这里指什么 and that most of them choose stay at home and describe prescribe medicine themselves. So, it is unreasonable to make the conclusion that eating a substantial amount of fish can could prevent colds.
Besides, it is not persuasive to recommend use of Ichthaid as a good way to prevent colds. The auger only give gave us one piece of information that Ichthaid is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. Even if eating fish can really help exclude the colds, the Ichthaid may disown the effective composition to prevent the cold. After all, it is abstracted from the fish. 没有给出准确理由The aruger should give us more details on the component of the Ichthaid.
The third problem is the cause an effec with the daily use of Ichthaid and the lower absenteeism. The arguer think that since colds are the reason most frequently given for absence from school and work, the daily use of Ichthaid, as an effective way to prevent colds will reduce the times of absences. Actually, it is easy to find an excuse for absences. The excuse like have a ailment 怎么连续的like like catching a cold is an easier one. So, it is possible that most of people do did not really have a cold. Consequently, recommendation of to use Ichthai affirmly cannot do any work to the absenteeism.
To sum up, the arguer is supposed to give us more details on the relationship between the cold and the fish consumption and the Ichthaid.
限时是有点困难，我也是这样，不过还是得努力。拼写错误不可避免，加强训练会好点；语法和时态倒是靠练习了，这篇时态不明确，没有统一；用一些复杂句会让作文感觉丰富点。加强练习吧

licheewu28UID: 2131182

TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

限时写的，写得很单薄，自己改了拼写错误，请大家抨击一下

WORDS: 393          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-3

strategy:
1.there is no further specification about two groups of patients in the study.
2.since Dr. Newland and Alton were engaged in different aspects of treatment, what they conducted might have fully different effects on the patients.
3.the author could ignore any possible medical function of the sugar pills.
4.the antibiotics might have side effect on patients though they could be treated with muscle injuries.
5. the author makes the fallacy of diminishing the scope from muscle injuries to muscle strain in the hypothesis.


The argument seems well presented, but problematically deducted. The author cites the study of two groups of patients suffering from muscle injuries who were treated by two physicians, and comes to the conclusion that the antibiotics could be taken to cure muscle strain. Careful review into the evidence reveals that it is unguaranteed.
To begin with, there is no further specification about two groups of patients in the study. The factors including their individual ages, genders and health state can all influence recovery process of their muscle injuries. If the second group were older and weaker in health than the first one, consequently they would recuperate more slowly. In this way, such absent information of the study could not persuasively support the conclusion.
In the second place, since Dr. Newland and Alton were engaged in different aspects of treatment, what they conducted might have fully different effects on the patients. The former must be better at curing muscle injuries as a specialist in sports medicine than the latter who was a general physician. As a result, their treating skills might lead to different recuperation time, which means that two groups recovered at different speeds probably owing to the physicians’ competence rather than to the medicine as the author expected. Thus, his/her statement is unconvincing with no accurate comparison.
Thirdly, the author could ignore any possible medical function of the sugar pills. It is fully possible that the pills could have some effect on the recovering process which delayed the time. Without considering such factor, the author could not show credibility of his conclusion.
In addition, likewise, the antibiotics might have side effect on patients though they could be treated with muscle injuries. If they got stomachache or headache after taking the medicine, it would be unwise to accept the advice given by the author.
Last but not least, the author makes the fallacy of diminishing the scope from muscle injuries to muscle strain in the hypothesis. Even if the medicine is beneficial to the injuries, it would not definitely cure the strain in that the latter is a distinctive symptom differing from the former. Therefore, it is rash to claim that taking antibiotics would be helpful to muscle strain.
To sum up, the argument is logically unreasonable. Without detailed description of the study and the actual function of antibiotics, the author could not prove reliability of his suggestion.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 Enna_garfield 于 2006-7-31 01:59 发表
2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville comm ...

The author recommends that in order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres (DA) homeowners should adopt a set of restrictions concerning on landscaping and housepainting, which is said useful in exerting such influence on Brookville' house. Nonetheless, careful examination reveals that this letter is based on a series of unsupported assumption and false analogy, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.开头很充实

The first and foremost reason why this article is not convincing as the author claims is that there is no evidence provided could illustrate the relationship between the implement of restriction of landscaping and exterior color of houses in Brookville and the rising of houses' price there. Many possible causes exist in that but合适些the author fails to eliminate other probable explanations. For example, maybe in the past seven years Brookville has experienced significant influx of labor thus the consequently elevation in apartment cost.这句话不完整 Or, perhaps the supply of commodity house is diminished sharply due to government regulation or limited land, accordingly the price of available house would increase to the matched level.这个用得真准确 The author even provides no powerful fact regarding the true condition about the implement of such rules. In a word, without ruling out other possibilities have having something do with the price of lodging, the author's contention cannot be relied on free from reservation.

Even assuming that placing such restriction on special exterior looks of housing does have positive effect on promoting property values in Brookville, another critical element should not be omitted on account of its importance in deciding the validity of this recommendation, which is time. It is clear that a span of seven years is long enough to experience something different in some aspects relating with the price of real estate. Understandably factors that are responsible for rising value of the property yesterday could cause devaluation of same thing tomorrow. Failing to take the changes happening having happened in such a long period, the author also could hardly justify his further deduction basing on this precondition.觉得和上面重了，都是指时间间隔会产生影响

Finally, even if we acknowledge all assumption above it does not mean that DA will develop strictly according to the path of Brookville due to possible difference in these two towns. For that matter, if the landscape of the whole Brookville town is colorful and irregular therefore its newly established houses, compelling adopting similar appearance for various housing would help reduce the feeling of mix and match. However, if DA is naturally in order for both buildings and view, simulating such doing would make DA looks more tedious and boring. Moreover, residents living in DA might prefer more diversified color and style for their house, which maybe is very abnormal in Brookville and makes the author's suggestion unfeasible in DA.

In sum, merely basing based on the current condition of Brookville to predict that similar success will happen in DA is unsubstantiated in the letter. To support his claim, the author must provide more information that unified semblances of houses in Brookville is the major reason for their high price and remain unchanged in seven years. Furthermore, adequate comparison must be took taken to indicate that DA and Brookville resemble each other enough to make sure that the same result will take place in DA.
第一和第二个论证觉得是重复的，另外一点：实行该措施的前提是有很多潜在住户会买，需要对潜在住户调查
总的说，有很强的语言驾驭能力了，如果把上面那点写进去，就很充实了

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 Enna_garfield 于 2006-7-31 01:59 发表
2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville comm ...

The author recommends that in order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres (DA) homeowners should adopt a set of restrictions concerning on landscaping and housepainting, which is said useful in exerting such influence on Brookville' house. Nonetheless, careful examination reveals that this letter is based on a series of unsupported assumption and false analogy, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.开头很充实

The first and foremost reason why this article is not convincing as the author claims is that there is no evidence provided could illustrate the relationship between the implement of restriction of landscaping and exterior color of houses in Brookville and the rising of houses' price there. Many possible causes exist in that but合适些the author fails to eliminate other probable explanations. For example, maybe in the past seven years Brookville has experienced significant influx of labor thus the consequently elevation in apartment cost.这句话不完整 Or, perhaps the supply of commodity house is diminished sharply due to government regulation or limited land, accordingly the price of available house would increase to the matched level.这个用得真准确 The author even provides no powerful fact regarding the true condition about the implement of such rules. In a word, without ruling out other possibilities have having something do with the price of lodging, the author's contention cannot be relied on free from reservation.

Even assuming that placing such restriction on special exterior looks of housing does have positive effect on promoting property values in Brookville, another critical element should not be omitted on account of its importance in deciding the validity of this recommendation, which is time. It is clear that a span of seven years is long enough to experience something different in some aspects relating with the price of real estate. Understandably factors that are responsible for rising value of the property yesterday could cause devaluation of same thing tomorrow. Failing to take the changes happening having happened in such a long period, the author also could hardly justify his further deduction basing on this precondition.觉得和上面重了，都是指时间间隔会产生影响

Finally, even if we acknowledge all assumption above it does not mean that DA will develop strictly according to the path of Brookville due to possible difference in these two towns. For that matter, if the landscape of the whole Brookville town is colorful and irregular therefore its newly established houses, compelling adopting similar appearance for various housing would help reduce the feeling of mix and match. However, if DA is naturally in order for both buildings and view, simulating such doing would make DA looks more tedious and boring. Moreover, residents living in DA might prefer more diversified color and style for their house, which maybe is very abnormal in Brookville and makes the author's suggestion unfeasible in DA.

In sum, merely basing based on the current condition of Brookville to predict that similar success will happen in DA is unsubstantiated in the letter. To support his claim, the author must provide more information that unified semblances of houses in Brookville is the major reason for their high price and remain unchanged in seven years. Furthermore, adequate comparison must be took taken to indicate that DA and Brookville resemble each other enough to make sure that the same result will take place in DA.
第一和第二个论证觉得是重复的，另外一点：实行该措施的前提是有很多潜在住户会买，需要对潜在住户调查
总的说，有很强的语言驾驭能力了，基本上没语法错误。如果把上面那点写进去，就很充实了

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

159. The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.

Strategies:
1. Due to vast physical area, the cost of electrical charge may different/dissimilar from places to places. Different electricity providing company will charge differently.
2. Period of time in using electricity may be different, especially seasonal usage, regional factor (tropical, cold region).
3. A statistical survey of size of house/room should be given.
4. Newly developed electrical devices may be energy saving. Contributions from other high electricity consuming devices play an important role.

WORDS: 518          TIME: 0:45:00 (a lot of room to improve!)        DATE: 2006-8-05

The author seemed providing a plausible solution to help the citizens of Claria to save money on electricity by means of using both air conditioners and fans, but the author merely relied on limited anecdotes and simply correlated those experiences provided by Claria people from various places.  Close inspection of the nexus of the anecdotes, reveals, however, that the connection provided a meager support at best for the author arguments.

First and foremost, as the matter of fact, the nation of Claria covers a huge physical area, due to vast physical area, the cost of electricity may be charged differently as electricity may be provided by different commercial power companies. In addition, regional charges are dissimilar from places to places and these both reasons may be part of the factors why the cost of using air conditioners alone is lower than the cost of using fans alone. The author should provide a clear statistical survey to disclose the differences of electricity charged by companies.

Even the costs of electricity (charges of kilowatt per hour) are similar for any regions and any companies, the period of using fans alone, or air conditioners alone or both fans and air conditioners may be different. The differences may be due to habitual reason or seasonal factor. As Claria covers a huge physical area, some people may live in the region of cold weather, whereas some may live in the region near to tropical area, different residential places may contribute to the period of the electricity usage. Other than summer season, people in cold weather may seldom switch on fans and air conditioners whereas people in tropical area may heavily depend on good air cooling electrical devices which may highly consume electricity. Regional survey and comparison should be presented by the author to reveal the discrepancy of electricity usage.

Turning to another possibility, size of house is one of the factors in justifying how many air cooling electrical devices should be employed. It is unparallel to compare a small household using air conditioner either with a huge household using many fans or with a medium house using both air conditioner and fans. The author should take into account of the size of house as a vital factor in determining the cost of electricity.

Yet, other than air cooling electrical devices, contributions from other high electricity consuming devices, e.g. fridge, washing machine, will play an important role in diversifying the differences of the cost of electricity. The author may not ignore other electrical devices in his recommendation. His suggestion may not universally applicable to every citizen in Claria.

In closing, as it indicates that the suggestion given by the author was not acceptable for every citizen in Claria. To enhance the argument, more statistical survey should be presented by the author, e.g. the regional price of electricity and the regional residential area. To better assess the argument, it would be useful to survey the household size and other electrical devices before the author simply conclude with any suggestion, otherwise the recommendation will not be valid and commit a fallacy of false linkage in reasoning.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

51. The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

Strategies:
1. Both groups of patients should receive similarly professional consultation.
2. The seriousness of muscle injuries of patients should be uniformly distributed between two groups. The seriousness should be identified.
3. 40 percent quicker than expected, because of other factors, nutritious food, personal care of the injuries, well informed how to take care.

WORDS: 417          TIME: 0:40:00 (a lot of room to improve!)        DATE: 2006-8-05


The author in the medical newsletter seemed providing a plausible reason in diagnosing with muscle strain patient and suggestion for the treatment, but the author failed to disclose detail information about the study and simply correlated those results without deeper consideration. Close inspection of the nexus of the results, unveil, however, that the connection provided a meager support at best for the author suggestion which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.

To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the study’s results are statistical reliable. Both groups of patients should receive similarly professional consultation, e.g. both groups should accept treatment from a doctor specializes in sport medicine and not received two different professional consultations as specialist in sport medicine will be able to give better care – physiotherapy - to the injured patients compared to a general physician. Besides, psychologically patients in the first group may have higher confidence in Dr. Newland compared with the patients in the second group. Mentally, the second group patients may not fully believe the treatment provided by Dr. Alton.

Even if the patients in the second group are confident with Dr. Alton, the seriousness of muscle injuries of patients should be identified and distributed uniformly in these two groups. The second group had lower average recuperation time may due to most of the patients had more serious injuries. If the first group consisted of less serious injured patients, logically the recuperation period should be shortened. The study should consider the distribution of patients according to the seriousness of the injuries.

Nevertheless, the discrepancy of the average recuperation time may due to other factors, e.g. the first group patients may have good nutritious food and better personal care of injuries compared with the second group. If the first group patients are well educated in taking care of injuries, like it is not hard to reason that their recovery should be faster.

In conclusion, as it indicates that the advice given by the author commit a fallacy of false linkage in reasoning. The author should consider some other vital factors before advising reader to take antibiotics as part of the treatment. To more effectively refute the claim the author should provide clear evidence that the statistical study should distribute the patients evenly according to the seriousness of injuries. To better assess the argument, the author should consider similar professional treatment given to both groups of patients and those selected patients are having the same educated background about taking care of muscle injuries.

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

雨城浪子修改吱吱的 ARGUMENT51

Dear  吱吱,

限时写的，写得很单薄，自己改了拼写错误，请大家抨击一下
I’ll take yours. I’m having problem in tackling this Argument too.

YiHua
RainY TowN

原帖由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-20 19:48 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
WORDS: 393          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-3

strategy:
1.there is no further specification about two groups of patients in the study.
2.since Dr. Newland and Alton were engaged in different aspects of treatment, what they conducted might have fully different effects on the patients.
3.the author could ignore any possible medical function of the sugar pills.
4.the antibiotics might have side effect on patients though they could be treated with muscle injuries.
5. the author makes the fallacy of diminishing the scope from muscle injuries to muscle strain in the hypothesis.


The argument seems well presented, but problematically deducted. The author cites the study of two groups of patients suffering from muscle injuries who were treated by two physicians, and comes to the conclusion that the antibiotics could be taken to cure muscle strain. Careful review into the evidence reveals that it is unguaranteed (<-no such word) .

To begin with, there is no further specification about two groups of patients in the study. The factors including their individual ages, genders and health state can all influence recovery process of their muscle injuries. If the second group were older and weaker in health than the first one, consequently they would recuperate more slowly. In this way, such absent information of the study could not persuasively support the conclusion. Good points!!! I’ve missed out these!!!

In the second place, since Dr. Newland and Alton were engaged in different aspects of treatment, what they conducted might have fully different effects on the patients. The former must be better at curing muscle injuries as a specialist in sports medicine than the latter who was a general physician. As a result, their treating skills might lead to different recuperation time, which means that two groups recovered at different speeds probably owing to the physicians’ competence rather than to the medicine as the author expected. Thus, his/her statement is unconvincing with no accurate comparison.

Thirdly, the author could ignore any possible medical function of the sugar pills. It is fully possible that the pills could have some effect on the recovering process which delayed the time. Without considering such factor, the author could not show credibility of his conclusion. (We seldom take this point into account in real common medical survey, I’m not sure whether we can consider this point of view here)

In addition, likewise, the antibiotics might have side effect on patients though they could be treated with muscle injuries. If they got stomachache or headache after taking the medicine (if they have side effects after taking the medicine) , it would be unwise to accept the advice given by the author. (The doctor should consider patients who are allergic to antibiotics too.)

Last but not least, the author makes the fallacy of diminishing the scope from muscle injuries to muscle strain in the hypothesis. Even if the medicine is beneficial to the injuries, it would not definitely cure the strain in that the latter is a distinctive symptom differing from the former. Therefore, it is rash (to rush) to claim that taking antibiotics would be helpful to muscle strain. (Good point!!! I was deceived by the argument…)

To sum up, the argument is logically unreasonable. Without detailed description of the study and the actual function of antibiotics, the author could not prove reliability of his suggestion.

[ 本帖最后由 雨城浪子 于 2006-8-7 12:04 编辑 ]