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issue  226 are we facing increasingly complex and challenging problems
The author statements that the illusion that people confront are more complex is eventually dispelled with increased knowledge and experience overlooks certain respects which are unique to today’s world. Today, the societal and environmental problems we are facing are so intricate and challenging that one question entangles with many others. This problems are unlike any precedent problems that earlier societies ever faced.

I concede that as we acquire more knowledge and experience, our capability to solve more complicated and problematic issues increased at the same time. Dramatically changed by the advance of technology, our society has made extraoirdinary progress in knowledge and technology. Over recent decades, the quality of human life has tremendously improved by the intellegence of human. Unlike our antecedents, the primitive people, we need not worry being attacked by wild beast during the night anymore, but comfortably sleep soundly on our soft and supple bed.

Nevertheless, the increasing interdependence of nations --- politically, militarily and econmically makes the problems far more complex than analogous problems for individual nations during times when they were more insular, more self-sustaining and more autonomous. We are confronting a growing scarcity of the world’s natural resources. Yet, the ever-increasing human population and the over-consumption of global dependencies on finite natural resources aggravates these problem. Consequently, this uniquely contemporary environmental problems that are global in impact and that may impair their health, survival and economy intensed the tension between every nations.

The complexity of current issues due to interdependent on nations makes them hard to cope with. If it turns out of control, it might pose a endless threat, like the butterfly effect, to the stability of worldwide nations. To aptly illustrate this point, let me take an example of the recent economic downturn of the United States. This ecnomic crisis has not only caused many American citizens unemployed, but also made many oversea factories which relied on purchase order from America to close down, leaving many jobless and hopeless people. In the meantime, the whole world economy turns sluggish and everyone has to tighten up their purse.

As the speaker claimed, we have learned and acquire numerous knowledge. The outgrowth of the inexorable advancement of scientific knowledge has solved innumerable health problems, harness various form of energy and so forth. However, the easy ones are solved, leaving problems that are more complex and challenging for us to solve. For instance, scientists are still working on the cure for AIDS and other deadly disease. As we solve each successive scientific puzzle, we move on to more challenging and complex ones.

Many so-called “intricate” problems ultimately derived from the interdependency of worldwide nations which is irreversible. Apart from that, as we become smarter, the complexity of the problems we face increase simultaneously. Thus, man will always continue to face neither more nor less complex and challenging problems for any generation than for preceding ones.

55.The following appeared in a Letter to the Editor of the Shady Village newspaper

"Commuters are complaining that the rush hour traffic on Blue Highway between Shady Village and Bright City has doubled their commuting time. Some commuters have asked that an additional traffic lane be built, but the recent creation of such a lane on nearby Green Highway apparently attracted more commuters, judging from the fact that rush-hour traffic jams actually increased there this past winter. To reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway, a bicycle lane should be added instead of a traffic lane. This approach will succeed because many citizens of Shady Village are avid bicyclists; 75 percent of respondents to a recent questionnaire distributed there said they would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently do."

I

n this argument, the author advocates that a bicycle lane should be built instead of a traffic lane. The recommendation is based on the observation that the new lane in Green highway has apparently attracted more commuters which aggravates the traffic problem and the result of a survey in Sady Village (SV). This argument is problematic for several reasons.

To begin with, the argument rest on the assumption that Green highway is analogous to Blue Highway in all respects. But the problem is that the two situations are not similar enough to justify the analogical deduction. For example, the traffic problem at Green highway was serious than Blue highway much more before building the trafiic lane, however, after the construction of a new lane the traffic condition has improved slightly. The author overlooks the possibility the commuter who use Green Highway is extermely high, perhaps Green Highway is the main road which connects people from downtown to Shady Village, or perhaps drivers whose destination is Bright City is much lesser than the commuters who use Green highway. Even is the traffic condition at Green Highway is still serious like before, maybe it is because Green Highway plays an important role in evacuating traffics.Without accounting for the possible dissmilarities, the author cannot assume that building another traffic lane at Blue highway will also cause more serious traffic problem.

The mere fact that the residents of SV are avid bicyclists is insufficient evidence to conclude that building a bicycle lane would ameliorate the current traffic condition. Even if they love cycling, it does not necessarily means that they will ride to office, perhaps they only treat cycling as an sport activity and amusement. It is entirely possible that the weather would affect their decision to cycle to work or not.Besides that, the author cites an questionnaire which shows that 75% of the residents in SV would like to bicycle more if a bicycle lane is built. Yet, the author fails to assure me that the survey results accurately reflect the desire of respondents, or that results accurately predict residents’ behavior. Without evidence that the respondents’ answer are representative of those of the overall population in SV, it is hasty to draw any conclusions about residents in SV will bicycle more if a bicycle lane is built from that survey. Moreover, common sense tells me that the respondents do not necessarily act in stict accordance with their expressed desires. Thus as it stands the statistic that 75% of the residents would like to bicycle more cites amount to scant evidence about the author’s assumption.

Yet anoter problem which lies in the argument is that the assumption presents a false dilemma, since building a traffic lane and bicycle lane are not necessarily mutuallly exclusive alternatives. the author fails to consider other measures to improve the traffic congestion, such as a new policy or law, restriction of certain heavy automobiles during rush hour and so forth. Unless the author can demonstrate that building a bicycle lane would improve the traffic problem significantly, the author’s conclusion about these issue is unfounded.

As it stand, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logicallt acceptable the arguer would have to give more evidence that residents in SV will be willing to ride bicycle to work. To better assess the argument, we would need more information about the detail management and scheme of the bicycle lane construction.