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monkeycoal 的argument 4
augument4 The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."
In this argument,the arguer recommends that using Adams to sell houses quickly and at a good price.In order to support his recommendation he cited that Adams has more employees than Fitch,and some of the employees in Fitch are merely working part-time.In addition,he pointed out that last year the revenue and average home sales of Adams are all higher than Fitch.Furthermore,the arguer based on his previous experience which has show that Adams sell house more quickly.At first glance,the certain statistics in this recommendation seems very specific and convincing.A careful examination of it,however,would reveal how groundless it is.
In the first place,the arguer provided no evidence that the numbers of real estate agents and working hours per week of a agent have direct relationship with the quality of a real estate firm.As is well known that,the quality of a firm is not only denpend on the numbers of employees and workind hours,but also the working efficiency,the attitude of work,versatile services.Lacking such evidence,it is possible that even some of the agents in Finch are part-time,they work much more efficiently and productively than the employers.
In the second place,the arguer fails to prove that Adams could sell houses at good price.Firsly of all,although the arguer cited that last year the revenue and average home sales are higher,probably in other years the sale of Adams is fewer than Finch.In addition,tha arguer didn’t make a compare with sold houses of two firms.Perhaps the houses Adams sold are all at a good geographic area or havind been completely deliberate decorated,there is no doubt that the average price is higher than Finch. Or perhaps sale is higher in Adams simply because it has more employees.Wihtout ruling out these possibilities that,the arguer couldn’t convincingly show that the Adams can sell houses at good price.
Finally,the arguer uses previous experience,instead of specific survey,to illustrate that Adams sell houses quickly,ignoring the factor of time which perhaps can change everything including the ablity of purchase,the influence of the location,the maket of the houses and so on.For instance,in the past,the supply of the houses surpassed the demand of market,so it took a long time for Finch to sold the house of the arguer.In the contrary,with the expansion of population,the demand of houses surpass the supplement,selling a house is not time-consuming.Obviously,On front of the current situation,no one can apply previous experience to nowadays’practice,so doed the arguer.
To sum up,the recommendation is not well reasoning and lacks credibility.To make this recommendation more convincing,the arguer would have to provide evidence to prove that the employees of Adams are working more efficiently and productively and it would be essential for the arguer to make a effective and representative survey of the houses sold of these two firms to support his recommendation.
[ 本帖最后由 monkeycola 于 2006-6-4 14:24 编辑 ] |
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