越洋农场站队作业帖

yuexuanUID: 155186

还有argument
47
The argument concludes that the earth cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To justify the conclusion, the argument point out the following facts: Either a volcanic eruption or a meteorite colliding with earth can lower earth temperature; no documents about a sudden bright flash of light were kept to illuminate the happen of a meteorite collision and a loud boom in Asian historical records would be accompanied with a volcanic eruption. Careful examination of the supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the conclusion.

First of all, the argument fails to take into account other possible reasons of leading to decrease global temperatures greatly. A volcanic eruption and a meteorite colliding with earth are possible reasons, but lacking sufficient evidences to provide them are exclusive causes for the decreasing. There are likely other reasons such as intense raining for a long time which also result to changing of earth temperatures.

Secondly, the fact that no extant historical records of a sudden bright light flash is insufficient to validate that there were not meteorite collision in that time. A multitude of possible cases can result to no extant records. As for such historical documents themselves, they could have been destroyed by many kinds of unknown events. And the meteorite collision has happened, however, which has not been seen by people, then nothing about that were preserved.

Finally, the argument has not provided sufficient evidence available to support any causal relationship between a loud boom in Asian historical records with a volcanic eruption. Such loud boom is only one of phenomena when a volcanic eruption happened, but from which we can not conclude it must have happened. The boom was maybe produced by other affairs but not by a volcanic eruption, such as a big stone rolled down from mountaintop and struck into obstruction, then created a loud boom.  

To sum up, the evidence cited in the argument is vague and incomplete, thus does not lend strong support to the conclusion that the arguer maintains. To better evaluate this argument, we need more information concerning the reason of global temperature lowering.

acheetahUID: 2199437

我也来交作业了，第三组。头一次写，真是痛苦，挤牙膏般的才挤了这么点出来。感觉思路不是很清晰。有待加强练习。
arguement 47
In this argument, the arguer recommends that the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption, to support this conclusion the arguer point out that some accounts found in Asia and Europe can prove the historical weather cooling patterns in the mid-sixth. In addition, the arguer reasons that there is no records to support a large meteorite colliding but a Asian historical records of the time mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. As it stands, the argument suffers from several critical flaws as follows.

Firstly, the accounts, both in Asia and Europe, that the sun become dimming and the temperature become colder can't represent the reason why the whole earth temperature become cooler. The partial phenomenon can't repress the global climate. Although the temperature in Asia and Europe became cooler, it would be hotter in the southern hemisphere. So the Asia and Europe's phenomenon can't strongly support that the earth became significantly cooler, unless there is enough evidence that the temperature became cooler among the whole world either the southern hemisphere or the northern hemisphere.

Secondly, there are so many reasons that could make the weather temperature cooler. For example, the climatic cycle may be the reason. It is well known that the earth temperature is not constant but variable, the average temperature among a long is constant. If we draw the annual temperature in time on a paper, we will find it is a regular curve that it rises some times and falls the other times like a sine curve. The mid-sixth century may just be the falling period in the temperature circle, so the temperature became cooler. Therefore a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth is not the only reasons.

Thirdly, no extant historical records mention a sudden bright flash of light does not mean that there were not large meteorite collisions. The collision could be happened in a place where nobody lived, so there is no historical records that mentioned the sudden bright flash of light remained. The other probably reason could be that the records which mention the sudden flash caused by the collision were lost, so the scientists can't prove there is a collision which cause the temperature to become cooler in the history.

Furthermore, the loud boom could be not consistent with a volcanic eruption. There are so many thing could sound a loud boom such as the thunder, earthquake, landslide and so on. So the loud boom did not mean that there was a volcanic eruption

To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence sited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more information concerning the volcanic eruption affecting the temperature.

acheetahUID: 2199437

issue 120 这篇的字数都还不够，每段开了头后，后面就不知如何展开了。

观点：部分反对。虽然历史有些观点对于我们现在已经显得过于陈旧、不再适用于现代生活，但历史对于我们现在仍然具有巨大的作用
1 举例说明历史中有很多的观点对现在仍然适用，举科学中的牛顿定律。
2 举权威的话说明历史可以鉴前世之兴衰，考当今之得失。编一个中学历史老师的话。然后用自身的一个例子来说明。
3 让步，承认历史中的确有某些观点不再适用于现在。

There are some people argue that history mean little to our society because our society are so complex and new that history can not provide any guidance for us. It is true that some points which have propelled the progress of society in the history are no longer applicable for today, but the pass still can provides guidance for us.

The development of sciences can provide a persuasive argument to illustrate that history is important for us. Modern sciences are developed from the pass step by step. You can image that if there were not Newtonian mechanics, modern classical physics wouldn't exist. Even Newton himself once said that "the reason I can make the great performance is only that I were standing on the colossus's shoulders." so the pass is important for all of us whatever you do, whoever you are.

Furthermore, history provides us so many vivid examples, from them we can analysis the reason why some developed and the others declined and use what we learned to our behaviors. My history teacher in my senior middle school once told us that "history like a minor. When you are looking at it you are just looking at yourself. If you are puzzled and not know how to solute the dilemma, the best way for you is to look for solutions in the pass, finding out how the great man settled the problem and trying it for yourself." I remembered this word and try it then find that it does work.

Admittedly, every history events have their special environments which are so different to todays, so some of them may have no use to us. For example we could use the method that the primitive men get foods to solve our food crisis.

In conclusion, although some of history opinions are no use in contemporary situations, history can still provide guidance to us.

pewcg8UID: 2143213

怎么只有这么几个人交?
这样吧,将作业延迟到周日,两次一起交,再不能交的话 Peter只能缩小组了.

[ 本帖最后由 pewcg8 于 2006-5-24 21:56 编辑 ]

pewcg8UID: 2143213

120. "So much is new and complex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provides little guidance for living in the present."
现代社会是如此的崭新和复杂以至于回首了解过去对于当代生活已经没有太大帮助了。
提纲：
论点：虽然现在社会复杂，但是了解过去可以使我们更好的适应社会生活．
分论点１：了解过去使我们能够借鉴过去人物的成功经验和失败教训，从而缓解我们的压力．
分论点２：分析历史，使我们能够更好的预测未来，知道我们未来的计划和行动．
分论点３：但是，不能过分的依赖历史．
We are now living in a complex society with great pressure from work and study. One have to struggle a lot to earn a better living. It seems impossible to learn about every field of knowledge today, why we still take our look backward and try to understand the past?

The main reason might be that we want to find a way out of the pressure. When it is difficult for a person to get everything he want, for example, a higher position in his job, a better housing, a sound pay, or even a good outlooking, he may try to find a  way to relive his tension, one of which, and maybe the most effective way, is looking to the past. He may look to the past for advice from the Chinese philosophy-Confucius, or from the famous Germany composer-Beethoven, or from the former President-Abraham Lincoln. He can gain direct knowledge from just look in the past and analyze what successful person did in the past to guide his action, also what mistakes they had made in order to avoid accomplishing a fiasco. After he has looked to the past for direction, he will feel more confident in front of problems in his life, which increase the chance of being successful in his work or study. It is clear that keeping doing everything right will absolutely relive his pressure in life.

Another factor is that history is replete with fine examples, examples such as how to successfully build a factory or develop a kind of industry, how to control a large country, how to teach young children to write and read. Although these cases are in different period of times, and can not be simply copied nowadays, they do give us something to learn from, especially when we have to do a long-term project that is hard to value its advantages and disadvantages as well as problems that might come along with the project. Then the history comes out as a perfect example to learn from. One can easily find something long ago, which, although different from what he will do in some aspects, can be used in some areas of the project. These experiences are well tested through history, and can ensure his success.

But if a person depends too much on the past experiences, and always put him in the shoe of the past, he will feel like he is also living in the past. Unfortunely, the pressure and chanllenges  we face today may be so great that people in the past, if they are living in our society, will feel frustrated and unbearable. If a person only copy the experiences of the success people in  the past and does not make neccessary changes to adapt the world  today, it will be much likely that he will not get what a wanted.

So it is clear that we should look to the past but not too much. The experiences from our precedents are valuable treasure, but we can never rely on this treasure, even sleep on them. One of the best way to get rid of the pressure today and accomplish something  great, is to study hard, work well, use your head, and just use some of the treasure of the past and put the treasure of your own at the same time.

nostrumUID: 2124189

重量级的作业来了

monkeycolaUID: 2206472

Issue 120 "So much is new and complex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provides little guidance for living in the present."

Nowadays technology has reshaped and recreated the society to unprecedented degree,and  also our understanding become new and complicated day by day. we accept the reality that  contemporary life changes so swiftly, but should we look back to the past to acquire some useful guidance.In my opinion,looking back of the past to acquire ufeful information is important and essential which help us to make a deliberate decision and avoid making mistakes.
To begin with ,as we look back to the history of science,we understand its principal of evolvement and learn the lessons from its rough and staggering development which can guide us to open a brand new digital age.Studying the history of science can help us face new challenges by showing us numerous of inspirational examples of success. For instance,we all know the great inventor Thomas Edision that sometimes a series of apparent failures is really a precursor to success. And also consider the journey of Lewis and Clark into the Northwest territory. Understanding the motivation needed to surpass adversities they faced can help to inspire modern-day explorers and scientists.

Inaddition,,as we look back to the history of social issue,we know what is right or wrong,and what is avoidable.Crime and violence ,for examples ,have troubled almost every society for hundreds of years.All kinds of reform,prevention,even punishmens have been tried and improved which still couldn’t eliminate crime and violence.,and history makes it obvious that punishments are not the most effective means to eliminate crime.In addition,Form the history ,we know that the world war that how atrocious it is and it pose a great threat to people in the world ,so we try to exclude.Furthermore,history helps us to social problem is in the fact that, despite civial rights efforts of Martin Luther King and his progenies fight for black men as well as white men,would guaranteed the inalienable rights of life,liberty,and pursuit of happiness,the gap between African-Americans and white Americans are widen.

Finally,as we look back to the politics,we know which government is the most suitable for the people.In the past,the society contains slavery,colonies,even coercion.During the centries of ceaseless pursue,we realize the essence of a society is the individual freedom which means human right.
  
To sum up,in terms of how to live as a society I agree with that looking back and learning the past is of some value.Not only do we absorb the experience which our predecessor left to us,but also create new solutions on the basis of past to solve the problems.

morallreyUID: 2191298

第二组
Morallrey 的第一次作业
实现0的突破，敬请大家指正;

120. "So much is new and complex today that looking back for an
understanding of the past provides little guidance for living in
the present."
提纲：1历史遗留我们巨大的知识和文化遗产，值得学习
         2历史蕴涵惨痛的教训，了解学习历史将使我们避免重蹈覆辙       
         3历史可以使我们更好的认知自身，从而更好的确立前进方向
Obviously modern society is based on the history,either glory or thorny,for nothing in   the world could be of its shape in a flash.Nevertheless the issue presents that useless is the past that we should take little consideration on it in modern society with its update and complexity.To reinforce my viewpoint,the following aspects are just few reasons in my mind that defy the perspective in the issue.
   First of all,so numerous heritage,from knowlege to culture,which ancestors bequeath to us that we have got to deeply appreciate what they have done,for history is a huge fortune that will never be consumed .Without their fabulous contribution to the society.it's horrible scenery that would be in front of us which's hardly to image.For instance,without "the republic" composed by plato,there would  be a great loss in the development of philosophy;without the three famous axioms discovered by Newton,the skyscraper of physics would not be so of present altitude,and without the Nobel's will to set a monetary foundation to honor the prominent scientists in various fields of
science,it may not be so ardent int the competition in pursuit of the peaks of science.So colorful and far-reaching are the knowledge and culture deposited in the history that every single moment including nowadays is a drop of water in the sea of history.
   Not only the knowledge and culture deposit in the past but also negative mistakes, failures or adversities is beneficial to mordern society.As an aphorism ,"Failure is the mother of success"clearly illustrate the benefit of failure and adversity.Take an historical event in the war of the world as an example,The America laid down three atom bomb on the territory in Japan,which directly result in Japan's surrending shortly afterward.Since then the U.N put forward an agreement to ban the expansion of nuclear weapons which was signed by most countries in the world.Why nuclear weapons is a fierce focus all over the world I think somehow is due to the conciousness of the jeopardy and the disasterous aftermath of using them,as we can see the condition of the two invaded area in Japan.Therefore,to avoid repeation of tragedy which occured in the past,people hence can take rational measures ,which is a beneficial factor brought by
history.
     Furthermore,with the stream of history running forward,we can be more consicious of our current position and responsibility in the development track of history.All the achievement we've got are on the basis of the creation of predecessor,and their insight to the world directly affect our perspective to our position compared to the wide-span history. The history made us more cognizant of ourselves,so we could clearly determin we human being's destiny,and this can just simplify the complexity nowadays.
   In conclusion,history is a benevolent doctor who can help us solve the problems upcoming to the world,a intellectual philosopher who can point out the direction toward which we are striving,and a tutor to whom we can permanently consult with.Therefore,be respectful to the past and study it earnestly ,we can be superior to us forever!



第一次作业
第二组 morallrey

argument 47
   Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

论点1:六世纪总叶的这种自然现象的起因可能不只作者提及的陨星撞击和火山爆发。
论点2:陨星撞击地球这中可能被作者不合理的排除
论点3:火山爆发的其他可能与所给现象相反的后果作者只字不提

   In this argument the author asserts that the drastic decline on temperature was caused by a volcanic eruprion,which was implied by some accounts after a faulty illation .However ,the course of the proof was unconvinceble for there exists some flaws in it,which was displayed below,
   To begin with,the most false step I find in the reasoning is that the author omit some other factors resulting in the phenomenon but not only a huge volcanic and alarge meteorite ,namely,the causes of the phenomenon are not adequately listed.As parellel causes, some other disasters such as tsunomi,or flood,which may caused extremely mositerous weather and thus leaded to a vast cloud shielding the sun ,and earthquake which could stir the the surface of earth and send a large dust to the sky.Moreover the falling down of the temperature may also resulted from other reasons ,one of which is an entry of ice age at that time, circulating every thousand years.So those probable courses have been carelessly ruled out,which weakened the reliability of the argument.
     To say the least,the phenomenon was caused by the two clamities shown in the argument,a huge volcanic and a large meteorite,the latter was eliminated doubtfully.On on hand,a large meteorite collision may not reasonably create a bright flash of light,but probably triggered the loud boom which the author considers as the aftermath of a vocalnic eruption.On the other hand no extant historical records can’t be a sufficient talking point to leave out the existing of the collision,maybe current records are not complete,or the bright flash of light were not observed by anyone for it occurred at secrete location or happened at night when people were sleeping.
     What’s more,the rest of the aftermath of a huge volcanic was not mentioned in the argument which may caused contrary influence on the climate.As a common sense, a volcanic sets out some hot liquid that will rose the temperate in nearby area.So whether the temperature would ascend or decline after a volcanic is a problem cannot be definitely answered.
    On all accounts, the summing-up given by the argument was not sufficiently and correctly supported by its argumentation,with so many faulty proof being picked out.However, in order to prove the true cause of phenomenon ,more convictive argumentation and datum should be included in the argument,therefore.

[ 本帖最后由 morallrey 于 2006-5-26 19:17 编辑 ]

edreamUID: 2202536

第一组，edream,第一次作业
Issue 120
Issue 120       
The speaker asserts that since so much is new and complex today ,the past provides little guidance for living in present .I admit that in several respects the assertion is reasonable .However ,the speakers overlooks that some ideas and methods in the past are still affecting our modern life.

Recently, the social is developing fast and changes are happening everyday .Sometimes people even feel that they can not catch up with the pace of the whole world .So it is understandable that some traditional ideas in the past can not be accepted by people today .For example, more and more women choose to work outside instead of doing housework at home .In the past , as we all know, it is considered inappropriate that a woman works outside. But now, women claim that they should be treated equally with men.

However, we can not deny that in several aspects the history is valuable and can still give us a good suggestion. In the scientific field, some classical experiments are still shining in modern scientific research, because the basic design ideas will never fade no matter what changes has happened. The discovery of a truth can be divided into several phases: find a new phenomenon; raise a new hypothesis; design an experiment to testify the hypothesis; find another phenomenon; revise old hypothesis. This law must be obeyed by scientists in any scientific research in any times although it has been established in the past .In other fields, the remainder of history can also be found.

Moreover, we can avoid some old mistakes by referring to history. Two atom-bombs were exploded in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. It is totally a disaster. Many people lost their home and radiation after explosion affected several generations' health. So now, many countries collaborate to prevent the development of atom-bombs.  

In sum, everything has two sides .To history , we should exclude the part that impedes human advancement and learn from the part that can still do good to human.
字数是不是太少了！伤脑筋呢．
问个问题：你们写作文都记时没？

[ 本帖最后由 edream 于 2006-5-25 16:44 编辑 ]

edreamUID: 2202536

第一组,
Argument 47
The arguer assumes that the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support his assumption, he points out that it was a large dust cloud blocking enough sunlight that lowered global temperatures and this cloud can only be created by a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth. He also cites the evidence that a bright flash will be made if a large meteorite happens to exclude the possibility of a meteorite. With careful examination of the whole argument, I find several flaws in it.

First, the arguer overlooks other possibilities that can also create a large dust cloud .It is possible that the large dust cloud was caused by a tornado. Without ruling out of other possibilities, the arguer's assumption is unconvinceable.

Second, the arguer fails to convince us that no meteorite collision occured in the mid-sixth country. Although no extant historic records of the time mention the flash that would accompany a meteorite collision, it also means that no extant historic records mention there were no such flash.  Besides, a meteorite crater will be a more stronger evidence than a flash to support the occurrence of a meteorite collision. For no enough evidences are available, the arguer can not make any conclusion that a huge volcanic eruption caused the large dust cloud.

Last but not the least, no evidence is provided to substantiate that a volcanic eruption caused the cooling in the mid-sixth century. Absent this evidence, it is more convinceable that a volcanic eruption brought a lot of heat inside the earth into the earth surface and made the temperature in the surface more higher.The arguer’s explanation is that the large dust cloud caused by a volcanic eruption blocked enough sunlight to lower global temperature,but he overlooks other reasons that may cause lower temperature,for example, the air flow .Without considering other reasons, the conclusion that a volcanic eruption caused the cooling in the mid-sixth century is doubtful.

In sum, to make his conclusion more convincing ,the arguer has to provide the evidence thatno meteorite collision happened in mid-sixth century and there are no other possibilities that would create a large dust cloud. We also need to know that a volcanic eruption really caused the cooling in the mid-sixth century .

xxxxzoeUID: 2200473

to yuexuan

issue 120
Whether understanding of the past offers guidance for present living or not, which is a much debated one in that it affected everybody in their daily lives. which is much more controversial that affects our daily live.People may prefer one to another这句是什么意思,请原谅我的无知, although some have no opinion about it. But if I am concerned, I think that the statement is arbitrary.however, that statement would be arbitrary if i am concered. In my view, understanding of the past can absolutelyprovide guidance for living in the present at some degree although whichit is sogreatly new and complex.


On one hand, I agree withwith是不是可以不用的 that such nderstanding has no use for present living sometimes. For with the development of our society, the present living becomes more and more complex than ever before, in which the thinking pattern and idea are quite different from before去掉from before会比较流畅,especially as foras for改成 when a new case or idea is concerned in the present.In such situation, if we focus on past with most time and money, the great efforts will result to nothing.是不是把这一段的观点在第一段就提出来然后在support会更漂亮呀?


On the other hand, it is imperative to take full understanding of the past now and then when facing other matters. History is continuous, which means that there are lots of problems we have to face now that have founded since去掉since long time ago, such as equality right between people, social justice and wars. In order to offer completed solves to such mattersaffairs, it is necessary to trace their origin. In there, there isan example can give some light to this point. As for the conflicts between china mainland and china Taiwan, the reason for that should be tracked to many years ago. Two parties have a war for the govern right of china but at last one side occupies mainland and the other holds Taiwan. So, when wanting to harmonize the relationship between two parties, the conflict will be all right.是不是写成台湾至尽不肯回归是由以前的历史原因的,而不要写以后就不会有冲突之类的话,我觉得例子应该直接打到点上才好


Moreover, understanding of the past can always bring about better growing up chances for youth. The value concept and society concept of youth are not pretty mature, being as important thing during important period不明白. The fine understanding of the past would supply valuables guidance forto youth maturity and progress, which can show their inspirational examples of success after listing a host of previous famous persons, can help them avoid repeating mistakes after carefully analyzing errors happened before andcan help them fully appreciate the present challenge after combining previous experiences with present knowledge注意这三个can之间的连接. Sotherefore, people, especially youth, should have a full nderstanding of the past to widen their vision of world for their development.

All in all, from what has been discussed above, the title statement is arbitrary and we can draw the conclusion that understanding of the past also offers some guidance for the new and complex present lives to some extend把另外那个观点也写上来,结尾要完整.

个人意见，仅供参考

xxxxzoeUID: 2200473

to  nonstrum
issue 120

Modern society is filled with new and complex problems which require us to search for new guidance in order to solve them. In my observation, the wise choice for us is not only looking back onto the past for the former measures but also understanding the present for new ideas.观点非常好,我要向你学习


To begin with, the past is a book abundant with precious virtues and principles which will do many benefits to us in guiding our behaviors. A great person once said “Forgetting of the past is equal to defection.” History ,just like a mirror, can reflect the fundamental of society for modern individual. Franklin Roosevelt ,for instance, is a great person from whom we can find out plenty of honorable characteristics and notable spirits,such as his diligence in carrying out his position of political issue, his adamancy of struggling with severely diseases , his spirits of devoting his life to the prosperity of America and so fourthforth. It is safe for us to say that an individual puzzling with different kinds of problems could gain great encouragement from him and become strong to meet his problems. Therefore, it is true that modern people meet new and complex problems, but the essential spirit of solving them can be find in the past.therefore, whenever modern people meet new and complex problems, the essential spirit of solving them can be found in the past.


Moreover, history is an explanation and understanding of not only human behavior but also the doctrine of what things will turn out to be. We can analyze the fundamental of society according to the knowledge accumulated throughout the history. Imageimagine that if a company meets with a severe period, what stepwill the manager will take? He will convene employees to discuss what measure to take, associated with investigating the compangy which has conquered the same problem.similar situation other company conquered in the past. We all have the sense that we can find out the means of solving dilemma in the past since history is a process of itwhat does 'it' prefer?past?, we can predict the result. Another illustration I find compelling in this point is our opinion of war in the present. No one can deny that our world is not harmony enough. There are conflicts and quarrels every now and then. Albeit different nations might be strongly against with each other , we have being spared every effort to avoid any form of war between them. Because we have known too much about the consequence of war from the history, we have the awareness of keeping peace as possible as we can. No matter how new and complex our society is ,most of the time,we can turn to the past for the answer.


To sum up, the past is the treasure what our forebears left to us, we should emphasize its importance in guiding our behaviors while we cannot rely on it completely since we might meet absolute new situation.Admittedly, there are some problems our forebears never met so that we should deal with them totally by ourselves. Take Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome for example,  a nightmare for us, our forebears had never met with this kind of disease so that we could not refer to medical records on it , what we can do is only finding out the medicine for this disease by our experiments. It is also can be called the limit of the past.例子用的很好,如何语言能够再紧凑点就更^^


To sum up, the past is the treasure what our forebears left to us, we should emphasize its importance in guiding our behaviors while we cannot rely on it completely since we might meet absolute new situation.

个人意见，仅供参考

nostrumUID: 2124189

120. "So much is new and complex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provides little guidance for living in the present."
现代社会是如此的崭新和复杂以至于回首了解过去对于当代生活已经没有太大帮助了。
提纲：
论点：虽然现在社会复杂，但是了解过去可以使我们更好的适应社会生活．
分论点１：了解过去使我们能够借鉴过去人物的成功经验和失败教训，从而缓解我们的压力．
分论点２：分析历史，使我们能够更好的预测未来，知道我们未来的计划和行动．
分论点３：但是，不能过分的依赖历史．
只是改了一点文字上的小问题，因为peter不会有什么错误的呀，而且很有可能有的改的还不对，不对的要告诉我额~We are now living in a complex society with great pressure from work and study. One have to struggle a lot to earn a better living. It seems impossible to learn about every field of knowledge today, why we still take our look backward and try to understand the past?（这个开头算是没有提出中心论点，对吧？这样写有没有点冒险？当然peter可以，但是我觉得一般水平的同学还是慎用啦）
The main reason might be that we want to find a way out of the pressure. When it is difficult for a person to get everything he want, for example, a higher position in his job, a better housing, a sound pay, or even a good outlooking（outlook本身就是名词吧）, he may try to find a  way（复数比较好吧？因为后面是one of which,还有most怎么怎么样）to relive his tension, one of which, and maybe the most effective way, is looking to the past. He may look to the past for advice from the Chinese philosophy-Confucius, or from the famous Germany composer-Beethoven, or from the former President-Abraham Lincoln. He can gain direct knowledge from just look in the past and analyze what successful person did in the past to guide his action, also what mistakes they had made in order to avoid accomplishing a fiasco.(peter就是猛，这种写法一般人想不到吧？这就叫做specific) After he has looked to the past for direction, he will feel more confident in front of problems in his life, which increase the chance of being successful in his work or study. It is clear that keeping doing everything right will absolutely relive his pressure in life.

Another factor is that history is replete(hoho~~~终于知道full，fill以外表丰富的词了) with fine examples, examples such as how to successfully build a factory or develop a kind of industry, how to control a large country, how to teach young children to write and read. Although these cases are in different period of times, and can not be simply copied nowadays, they do give us something to learn from, especially when we have to do a long-term project that is hard to value its advantages and disadvantages as well as problems that might come along with the project. Then the history comes out as a perfect example to learn from. One can easily find something long ago, which, although different from what he will do in some aspects, can be used in some areas of the project. These experiences are well tested through history, and can ensure his success.

But if a person depends too much on the past experiences, and always put him in the shoe of the past, he will feel like he is also living in the past. Unfortunely, the pressure and chanllenges（challenges）  we face today may be so great that people in the past, if they are living in our society, will feel frustrated and unbearable. If a person only copy the experiences of the success people in  the past and does not make neccessary (necessary)changes to adapt the world  today, it will be much likely that he will not get what a(怎么用的a？是想用he吗？) wanted.

So it is clear that we should look to the past but not too much. The experiences from our precedents are valuable treasure, but we can never rely on this treasure, even sleep on them. One of the best way to get rid of the pressure today and accomplish something  great, is to study hard, work well, use your head, and just use some of the treasure of the past and put the treasure of your own at the same time.

[ 本帖最后由 nostrum 于 2006-5-25 20:07 编辑 ]

nostrumUID: 2124189

Argument 47:

This argument asserts that the probably reason for global cooling in the mid-sixth century is a volcanic eruption. To bolster this conclusion, the argument finds two reasons—“Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth” and eliminates the possibility of the latter one. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the conclusion.

To begin with, the argument tends to ignore the fact that there are many factors contribute to the global cooling, volcanic eruption and large meteorite colliding are only two possible causations. It is entirely possible that the cooling was caused by the occurring of the Ice Age, or some other unknown geographical factors, or even result from all these factors acted together. Therefore, the argument can not justifiably conclude that the cooling was caused by a volcanic eruption until considering and ruling out other factors that might have served to the argument. Otherwise the following argument is meaningless. 后两句话说得一个意思吧？用otherwise连接不太好吧

Granting that the cooling was due to the two reasons as the arguer mentions, the argument unfairly assumes that dimming of the sun in Asia and Europe proves a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere which blocked enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. Because the only accounts of the dimming of the sun found Asia and Europe can merely support the possible situation in Asia and Europe at that time and does not adequately respond to the global situation. Large as the earth is, conditions of one continent are absolutely different from another. Only if the argument prove that the dimming of sun in Asia and Europe typify the same situation of other places on the earth, can the evidence be credible.

Thirdly, given that the whole earth's atmosphere was blocked from sunlight by large dust cloud, the argument does not provide enough evidence that large meteorite collision did not contribute to the large dust cloud. The argument claims that a large meteorite collision would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, however, "probably" does not mean every time. Perhaps there was large meteorite collision without bright flash of light at that time. What's more, common sense tells us that no extant historical records do not stand that the event did not happened. In the view of such a long period of time, evidence can be missed, destroyed by any possible means. And maybe some evidence can be found in the near future.这一段写成了为了支持作者的观点为论据找支撑，我觉得批驳资料有存在的可能是可以的，但是这样enhance talking point,我现在思维的逻辑性已经乱了跟别的组员讨论下吧

Finally, when it comes to the mention of a loud boom, again, the argument uses historical records only from Asia to support a volcanic eruption did occur, which is not persuasive. It is not compellent that a single volcanic eruption occurred in Asia, so as to produce such a large dust cloud that was capable to cover the earth’s entire atmosphere. Further, the mere mention of loud boom does not necessarily indicate that a volcanic eruption happened at that time. Many reasons can explain a loud boom, such as avalanche, landslide, meteoroid collision and so on. Without excluding other possible reasons the argument can not convince me on the final conclusion.同样是对record的质疑，我觉得写在一段吧，因为是一个性质的错误啦

To sum up, the argument cites several evidence to prove that the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. But none of evidence is well supported. To strengthen it the argument should provide more clear evidence as following: other factors which were attributable to the global cooling did not play roles at the mid-sixth century; the causal relationship between the recorded loud boom and volcanic eruption; other indispensable details to support the argument.

yuexuanUID: 155186

晕
咋用带颜色的字啊
俺不会用啊