Tough Break (再战200610G) argument提交贴

munickyUID: 2122843

In this argument, the author made a conclusion that the sales of one kind of video games----Whirlwind(W) are likely to increase, to support this conclusion, he/she cite a survey, and he/she also assumes that people 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games. However, careful scrutiny reveal that this conclusion is dubious at best.

In the first place, the author suffers a statistic problem, on the one hand, we are not assured that if the respondents of the survey cited are large enough in size and representative of the overall group, if there are only a small part of people are surveyed, or if the respondents only represent a limited age group, then the survey lacks credibility. On the other hand, the author also fails to provide what potion of people surveyed actually respond and choose the games that provide lifelike graphics, the small this potion, the less credible this survey would be. Thus ,in order to demonstrate that games which provide lifelike graphics would be popular among people, we need more details of the survey.

In the second place, the author draws a assumption that people 10 to 25 years old would be most likely to play video games. Yet he/she fails to provide sufficient evidence to support, it is entirely possible that these group of people like some other games better. In that case, the advertising campaign would play little use for the company.

Finally, the conclusion drawn by the author is too hasty, first of all, the author lacks sufficient evidence to demonstrate if this kind of game is popular among people. If it is not, then the sales can not increase. Secondly, we are not shown if the advertising campaign can be effective, it is likely that the design of their advertising can not be accepted by people, then it can not help and the sales can not go up either. In a word, without ruling out some other possibilities, the author can not convince me that the sales of the game must rise.

To sum up. the argument lacks credible survey statistics and evidence to support, thus the auther must provide more details of his/her survey and more evidence about the sale

赶时间了，结果连四百都没过。

dnaitUID: 2206459

偶的147-argument
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果，玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的，具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10－25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，10－25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。

1h,没限时。
提纲：
1。游戏本身的问题，如人物不好，结局不好等。
2。要针对不同人群的喜欢特点来改进游戏才行。不然销量仍不上去。
3.10-25并不代表最多人群，要找最多的part of video game players.
4. 近2年游戏发展太快，瓜分市场，销量下降，更需要经济手段(除了游戏本身改进以外)

In this argument, the arguer tries to convince us that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically due to the introduction of the company's new products and advertising campaign. The arguer shows us the proof that a recent survey referred to video-game's most important factors. A careful examination of this argument would reveal several critical flaws as follows.

Firstly, Whirlwind neglects a attentive things greatly: How their sales of video games declined over the past two years. Only an survey asking video-game players about the most important features in a video game are not always efficient ways to save their from their difficulties of decreasing sales. Maybe something is wrong with its contents which could be not enough beautiful characters, or scarce of fair-sounding music, exciting plots and scenes. Even not good ending may dissatisfy the players. Given all vital features you have investigate are considered in later ameliorated ones, but some disadvantages mentioned above are still exit potentially, Whirlwind cannot reach its sales increasing yet as they wished.

Secondly, players in different ages prefer different games. Girls may like games on housekeeping, breeding e-pets, loves and some peaceful and slow games. More beautiful characters and adorable creatures can attract them as well. Boys may like more exciting ones like gunfire or war. Adults players may more incline to vocation games or others related to their hobbies. Graphics and the most up-to-date computers may be an aspect of the problem, but Whirlwind should pay attention to more things like players’ interest and hobbies. If they neglect these things, they maybe fail another time.

Finally, to introduce the video games to 10 to 25 years old, that the age-group is most likely to play video games, may be something ill-considered. Though the age-group is most likely to play video games, it is not sure that this group really covers mostly part of the whole players. Accurately to says, they should confirm to find the main part of the video game players. It is obvious that if Whirlwind found this group, and design video game as their interest, they would win more customers than to design game for 10-25 years old age-group, thought they are most likely to play video games.

Besides, competitor or the whole video game circumstance is out of their desires. Video game’s improvement maybe brings more competition last two years. To many new ones come to partition the market of the video games which directly induce decreasing sales. That is to say, if it were this case, more economical means maybe strongly suggest except the game itself.

To sum up, the argument is not reasonable as it stands. The arguer would give us more proof to prove that the sales would positively increase. It is more logical that if we accumulate more evidence concerning the data of the survey and finally confirm the reasons why the sales decreased and the guarantee of its reversion.

谢谢，请批评指正!：D

munickyUID: 2122843

The argument is well presented, but not well reasoned. In this argument, the arguer attempt to convince us the fact that in order to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents and increase productivity, their three work shifts should be shorten by one hour so that their employees would get adequate amounts of sleep. To support the conclusion, the author cited the fact that Panoply industries' work shift are one hour shorter than Alta. Moreover, the arguer also cited that experts believe the fatigue and sleep deprivation are the contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents. As it stands, the arguments defies simple logic and suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first place, the arguer cited a comparison between Alta and Panoply .The Alta's accidents rate was higher because Panoply's work shifts are one hour less than Alta. As we know, there are quite a lot factors which would result in high accidents rate, such as the essence of work, the security of working conditions, the workers' operating skills, and so on. It may be the fact that the work in Alta Manufacturing was much dangerous than Panoply industries. It may also be the fact that the security of working condition of Alta is much safer（去掉security更好些） and reasonable than Panoply, although the work was the same between Alta and Panoply. Moreover, provided that the work, security of working condition are the same between the two companies, the Alta' workers are less skilled when they are operating machines. In another word, careless operating skill may also lead to higher accident rate.（最后应加一些总结的语言，让全段更完整些）

In the second place, the arguer cited the indication that expert believe that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are the contributing factor（factors）. Even though the indication is true, it does not mean the fact that the Alta's workers are too exhausted and deprived by sleep, then the workers  frequently make faults and the on-the-job accidents is much higher than Panoply. No clarified evidence of survey is conveyed here about the workers' feeling in Alta. It may be the fact that the workers in Alta do not feel fatigue or exhausted at all.(这样子直接把原论断否定似乎有些强词夺理的味道，欠缺说服力，可以说完全由可能是其它原因导致事故率偏高，而且这样结束的有些仓促)
Finally, the arguer concluded that in order to reduce the on-the-job accidents rate thereby increase productivity, their three work shifts should be shorted by one hour to insure the sleep of their workers. On the one hand, there is not any certain correlation （说法太过肯定，事故率高，工人整天担惊受怕当然会影响生产率，再斟酌一下）between accidents reducing and productivity increasing. It may be the fact that the on-the-job accidents are not serious enough to affect the productivity.（这个应该不算啥逻辑错误） On the other hand, the arguer cited one hour less in work shifts of Panpoly in the comparison, but concluded that three work shifts should be shortened by one hour. No conspicuous scientific investigation or research are listed here to prove that one hour should be shortened in three work shifts instead of two hours or half an hour to insure adequate sleep. Moreover, adequate sleep may be only one minimum factor which results in higher accidents rate. Other related aspects, such as working conditions, and working training should also be considered and analysed (analyzed) reasonably.

To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lack credibility since evidence cannot lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer needs to hold a investigation toward the true reason of higher accidents rate in Alta. Moreover, other information of survey should also be conveyed that whether the workers’ sleep is adequate or not if the work shifts are not shortened. Otherwise, the argument, the argument is logically unacceptable.

总体挺好，就是建议分析完一个错误后稍加总结或说说如何弥补都行，不要突然结尾，象话没说完突然被打断。

munickyUID: 2122843

谢谢，我的断句是有些问题，总是评语感来写所以总是不注意断句，还有你说的一开始应写主要的错误这道一直没注意过，一直都是按错误出现先后顺序来写的，谢谢‘，获益匪浅！

dnaitUID: 2206459

呵呵，大家都很积极啊，偶也来看一下。

In this argument, the author made a conclusion that the sales of one kind of video games----Whirlwind(W) are likely to increase, to support this conclusion, he/she cite a survey, and he/she also assumes that people 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games. However, careful scrutiny reveal that this conclusion is dubious at best.

In the first place, the author suffers a statistic problem, on the one hand, we are not assured that if the respondents[这个词蛮好的] of the survey cited are large enough in size and representative of the overall group, if there are only a small part of people are surveyed, or if the respondents only represent a limited age group, then the survey lacks credibility. On the other hand, the author also fails to provide what potion of people surveyed actually respond and choose the games that provide lifelike graphics, the small this potion, the less credible this survey would be. Thus ,in order to demonstrate that games which provide lifelike graphics would be popular among people, we need more details of the survey.

In the second place, the author draws a assumption that people 10 to 25 years old would be most likely to play video games. Yet he/she fails to provide sufficient evidence to support, it is entirely possible that these group of people like some other games better. In that case, the advertising campaign would play little use[be less useful,好像没有play little use这个短语] for the company.

Finally, the conclusion drawn by the author is too hasty, [断句，前面是句号]first of all, the author lacks sufficient evidence to demonstrate if this kind of game is popular among people. If it is not, then the sales can not increase. Secondly, we are not shown if the advertising campaign can be effective, it is likely that the design of their advertising can not be accepted by people, then it can not help and the sales can not go up　 either. In a word, without ruling out some other possibilities, the author can not convince me that the sales of the game must rise[color=Blue].[建议不用must，用positively,或affirmatively。must好像指有人强迫某人做什么事]

To sum up. the argument lacks credible survey statistics and evidence to support, thus the auther must provide more details of his/her survey and more evidence about the sale
有些词和句子表达使用很好（至少偶看着很准确），注意断句。词语有些重复。分析比较透彻，但词语的重复使得有些意思表达上有些模糊。

相见不如怀念UID: 2229685

原帖由 zhulu 于 2006-7-16 10:13 发表
Without guarantee that workers will definitely take more rest （差个and） get more sleep with one hour from each of the three work shifts, it is possible that they may not take the time to do what the arguer assumes. Perhaps, workers just make themselves more exhausted and tired with one more hour's break（maybe I should say it like that: Perhaps, workers just involve themselves in more entertainment activities, such as night club, or deal with personal issues by one more hour, which could only be worse enough for fatigue's sake） （这句话有点令人费解？明明多休息一个h，怎么会更加劳累呢？我觉得Argu还是要讲道理，但是讲道理不是讲歪理啊。打个比方，如果你是一个工人，跟你的老板说，为了让accidents降下来，我们需要更好的休息，多给我们一个h吧，老板跟你说：有可能你多休息一个h反而会更加劳累，所以不能多加这1h吧。你说作为工人，你心里会怎么想，你觉得这个老板在讲道理么？还是在讲歪理？如果老板这么说：我们A公司都是严格按照劳动法规定的劳动强度来安排休息时间，P公司之所以多一个小时，因为它们公司劳动强度太大，按照劳动法这样多一个小时是正常的。你觉得这样的老板说话是不是更加convincing？）,

你说的那个问题，我改了下，看看这样是不是more convincing? thanks

呵呵，我很久没写作文了，这个就完全按照模板来的。一样的结尾肯定有问题的，所以考试的时候一定要用自己的模板;P

[ 本帖最后由 相见不如怀念 于 2006-7-16 15:36 编辑 ]

相见不如怀念UID: 2229685

原帖由 municky 于 2006-7-15 21:35 发表
how many on-the-job accidents come (arise) from the fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers, the arguer cannot convince (vt.及物动词) others simply by offering (给出专家们的意见) the experts' opinion. 我在寄托的一篇同主题写作上看到有关对一些前提的观点，认为此类作为一种设定性的说明条件不应该是我们攻击的目标; 我手头有的新东方黄予给的ARGU分析也未对这点指出错误(有点教条了). 我自己今天也对这点攻击了一把,后来觉得越来越不对劲（你说得这个挺对的，我开始参考了书上的分析，不过写到后来也觉得有点勉强。）
Last but not least, there are many other alternatives that would help to reduce on-the-job accidents in Alta (这段都未提起应该是谁采取措施,有必要在这里先给出一个逻辑主语). Workers should get more on-the-job training, while industries should use good enough machines that cause fewer accidents by them own (不是很明白这句的用意,指P用了很好的设备机器而使accidents少了?（maybe I should say it like that: workers should get more on-th-job training, while A should make use of up-to-date machines or equipment, which keep the accidents to the least.）). Management involves solving the potential accidents by stipulating relevant principles and rules.

zhuluUID: 2134300

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.


WORDS: 315          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-16

In this arguement, the arguer conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the arguer cited survey which convey the result that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Moreover, the arguer also cited that Whirlwind incresed advertising campaign of several such games. As it stands, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First of all, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. It may be the fact that those responders cannot represent for the whole players. Moreover, the number of responders may not be enought to be statistically reliable. In addition, this survey was held few months before. Even though the trend is lifelike graphics two months ago, it cannot be indicated that the mainstream is still life like graphics few months later. It may be the fact that, few months later, another new-fashioned games come out and the sales of Whirlwind video games still have to suffer from declining.

Second, the arguer hastily draw the conclusion that the the sales of Whielwind video games is supposed to incesase because the company itroduce several such games with extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25, who most likely to play video games. On the one hand, even if the people 10 to 25 is most likely to play video games, it does not mean the fact that most people who play video games is 10 to 25. It may be the fact that only 3% of players is 10 to 25. On the other hand, the arguer assume the fact that the advertisement would work and help the company to increase their sells. Perhaps, although the advertisement was quite successful and moving, the games designed by the company were less charming and intriguing to attract players.

Last but not the least, the arguer also cited the fact that this kind of lifelike graphics need most up-to-date computer. As we know, not every player could afford to update their computer to most up-to-date status. It may be the fact that many players have to give up this kind of games although they like them very much. In addition, although the responders in the survey commit to like this kind of games, they might not really fulfill their promise.

To sum up, the conclusion lack credibility because the evidence cited in the argument fail lend strong support to the arguer’s claim. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer need to provide more detailed information about the constitution of respondents and exact number of respondents. To make it convincing, the arguer also need to provide information about how many percent of players would like to play lifelike graphics. Otherwise, the argument is logically unacceptable.

相见不如怀念UID: 2229685

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
'Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.'
------正文------
The arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion the arguer points out that the currently declined sales trend would be reversed based on the study of video-game players. To argue further, the arguer cites that most video-game player from the survey prefer the lifelike graphics bestowed by the games, which are accessible to Whirlwine as it has introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed to the most likely video-game players' group. The arguer's argument is problematic in several respects, rendering the argument unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the arguer unfairly assumes that the respondents of the survey represents all, most at least, video-game players' voices that all of them would like to choose games with lifelike graphics. Lacking evidences that how many of the video game players participate in the survey and to which extent can they stand for the preference of all potential video-game players who would choose Whirlwind, it is entirely possible that just they only are small fraction of the potential customers with unique choice for the games. Perhaps, most of the video-game players think games with other characteristics would be better choices. Without considering and eliminating these and other possible alternative explanations for these, the arguer cannot convincingly conclude that more video-game players prefer the games with lifelike graphics.

Secondly, the arguer fails to indicate the feasibility of the advertising campaign of games with lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Perhaps, the most up-to date computers cost more and increase the production cost at first without bringing positive sales at the end. Perhaps, the advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 is not suitable without clear market research to show that they are the target customers for the lifelike graphic games' sales.

Thirdly, the arguer fails to assume the people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. Lacking the evidence that those people are the ones who participate in the survey and do present the likeliness to choose lifelike graphics, the arguer cannot convince me that those people would contribute to the sales of Whilrwind. Possibly, many people at other age-group are fond of the games too, without targeted by the advertising campaign.

In sum, the arguer fails to provide key evidence needed to support its claim. To better assess the study's reliability I would need more information about the number of the respondents and how are theirs preference for the games. To strengthen the argument, the arguer must provide more compelling evidence that people aged 10 to 25 are the most likely age-group are the persons who respond to the survey and are most likely to play vide games. In order to better evaluate the argument, I would need more information about the relationship between the popularity of the lifelike graphic games and the sales of Whirlwind video games.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 municky 于 2006-7-16 12:04 发表
In this argument, the author made a conclusion that the sales of one kind of video games----Whirlwind(W) are likely to increase, to support this conclusion, he/she cite a survey, and he/she also as ...

In this argument, the author made a conclusion that the sales of one kind of video games----Whirlwind(W) are likely to increase, to support this conclusion, he/she cite a survey, and he/she also assumes that people at(以下同) 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games. However, careful scrutiny reveal that this conclusion is dubious at best.
In the first place, the author suffers a statistic problem, on the one hand, we are not assured that if the respondents of the survey cited are large enough in size and representative of the overall group, if there are only a small part of people are surveyed, or if the respondents only represent a limited age group, then the survey lacks credibility. On the other hand, the author also fails to provide what potion of people surveyed actually respond and choose the games that provide lifelike graphics, the small this potion, the less credible this survey would be. Thus ,in order to demonstrate that games which provide lifelike graphics would be popular among people, we need more details of the survey.
In the second place, the author draws a assumption that people 10 to 25 years old would be most likely to play video games. Yet he/she fails to provide sufficient evidence to support, it is entirely possible that these group of people like some other games better.还可以进一步论证 In that case, the advertising campaign would play little use for the company.
Finally, the conclusion drawn by the author is too hasty, first of all, the author lacks sufficient evidence to demonstrate if this kind of game is popular among people. If it is not,进一步论证 then the sales can not increase. Secondly, we are not shown if the advertising campaign can be effective, it is likely that the design of their advertising can not be accepted by people, then it can not help and the sales can not go up either. In a word, without ruling out some other possibilities, the author can not convince me that the sales of the game must rise.
To sum up. the argument lacks credible survey statistics and evidence to support, thus the auther must provide more details of his/her survey and more evidence about the sale
你攻击的点都很准,就是论证不够深入, 用词上还可以下点工夫

licheewu28UID: 2131182

原帖由 municky 于 2006-7-16 12:04 发表
In this argument, the author made a conclusion that the sales of one kind of video games----Whirlwind(W) are likely to increase, to support this conclusion, he/she cite a survey, and he/she also as ...

In this argument, the author made a conclusion that the sales of one kind of video games----Whirlwind(W) are likely to increase, to support this conclusion, he/she cite a survey, and he/she also assumes that people at(以下同) 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games. However, careful scrutiny reveal that this conclusion is dubious at best.
In the first place, the author suffers a statistic problem, on the one hand, we are not assured that if the respondents of the survey cited are large enough in size and representative of the overall group, if there are only a small part of people are surveyed, or if the respondents only represent a limited age group, then the survey lacks credibility. On the other hand, the author also fails to provide what potion of people surveyed actually respond and choose the games that provide lifelike graphics, the small this potion, the less credible this survey would be. Thus ,in order to demonstrate that games which provide lifelike graphics would be popular among people, we need more details of the survey.
In the second place, the author draws a assumption that people 10 to 25 years old would be most likely to play video games. Yet he/she fails to provide sufficient evidence to support, it is entirely possible that these group of people like some other games better.还可以进一步论证 In that case, the advertising campaign would play little use for the company.
Finally, the conclusion drawn by the author is too hasty, first of all, the author lacks sufficient evidence to demonstrate if this kind of game is popular among people. If it is not,进一步论证 then the sales can not increase. Secondly, we are not shown if the advertising campaign can be effective, it is likely that the design of their advertising can not be accepted by people, then it can not help and the sales can not go up either. In a word, without ruling out some other possibilities, the author can not convince me that the sales of the game must rise.
To sum up. the argument lacks credible survey statistics and evidence to support, thus the auther must provide more details of his/her survey and more evidence about the sale
你攻击的点都很准,就是论证不够深入, 用词上还可以下点工夫

相见不如怀念UID: 2229685

原帖由 zhulu 于 2006-7-16 16:11 发表
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.


WORDS: 315          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-16

In this arguement, the arguer conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the arguer cited survey which convey the result that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Moreover, the arguer also cited that Whirlwind incresed advertising campaign of several such games. As it stands, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First of all, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. It may be the fact that those responders cannot represent for the whole players. Moreover, the number of responders may not be enought to be statistically reliable. In addition, this survey was held few months before. Even though the trend is lifelike graphics two months ago, it cannot be indicated that the mainstream is still life like graphics few months later. It may be the fact that, few months later, another new-fashioned games come out and the sales of Whirlwind video games still have to suffer from declining.

Second, the arguer hastily draw the conclusion that the the sales of Whielwind video games is supposed to incesase because the company itroduce several such games with extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25, who most likely to play video games. On the one hand, even if the people 10 to 25 is most likely to play video games, it does not mean the fact that most people who play video games is 10 to 25. It may be the fact that only 3% of players is 10 to 25.(这句后面是不是漏了什么啊?) On the other hand, the arguer assume the fact that the advertisement would work and help the company to increase their sells. Perhaps, although the advertisement was quite successful and moving, the games designed by the company were less charming and intriguing to attract players.(这个perhaps力度不够)

Last but not the least, the arguer also cited the fact that this kind of lifelike graphics need most up-to-date computer. As we know, not every player could afford to update their computer to most up-to-date status (这个地方可能理解有偏差,Lifelike graphics need most up-to-date computer to update themselves, but not required to players necessarily.这个地方的攻击点应该是用最先进的电脑会增加游戏的成本,导致零售价格高会有卖不出去的可能,从而无法提升销售额.). It may be the fact that many players have to give up this kind of games although they like them very much. In addition, although the responders in the survey commit to like this kind of games, they might not really fulfill their promise.

To sum up, the conclusion lack credibility because the evidence cited in the argument fail lend strong support to the arguer’s claim. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer need to provide more detailed information about the constitution of respondents and exact number of respondents. To make it convincing, the arguer also need to provide information about how many percent of players would like to play lifelike graphics. Otherwise, the argument is logically unacceptable.

红字标出的单词有语法或时态错误,都是细小部分,但应该特别注意,因为很容易丢分........

其他没什么问题,就最后一段的攻击点有偏差~ 大家讨论下..

相见不如怀念UID: 2229685

原帖由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-16 10:26 发表
ARGU 147 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
'Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.'
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Based on the survey, the author in this editorial predicts that Whirlwind video games would sell well and increasingly in the coming few months. To support his prediction, he provides his evidence that people at 10 to 15 years are the company's directing goal (how about "target customers" ?) and they are most possibly to play Whirlwind vedio games. The argument is problematic and vacant with strong persuasive evidence.

First of all, there is no information to prove that people at 10 to 25 will necessarily play the games. A survey is cited as the supportive evidence to prove such people to be the sales orientation. But actually, there is fallacy of different scopes in that it is not people at the age who are interviewed in the survey while the campaign is directed at them. In this way, probably the compaign is a waste of time and money, and the goal will not go to play the games as hoped. Thus, since no evidence serves to show people at 10 to 25 to be major players, the author cannot guarantee the games to be increasingly sold well.

Furthermore, the editorial indicates that the games offer lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computer. It is fully possible that such a factor would not be an advantage but a disadvantage for the games because probably most of players cannot afford an up-to-date computer, and thus give up to play the games. Even if they can own such computers, there are other factors influencing one to play games, such as games subjects or excitingness except lifelike graphics. What's more, if Whirlwind vedio games are of bad subjects, which is prohibited by social laws, they will never have a good market. (最后一句好像分析的有点没有根据.另外关于那个up-to-date computer的那个你跟路路理解的一样,但是我觉得应该是游戏公司需要有先进的电脑来制作游戏画面,而不是玩游戏的人需要有先进的电脑才能玩.如果真的是玩游戏的人需要有先进的电脑,那么这和题中玩游戏的人prefer这些游戏的论点正好相反,因为既然他们没有先进的电脑玩这种游戏,又怎么可能表示prefer呢?不过也有可能,这些人会对自己没用过的东西进行prefer or not的选择....嗯,我就是有找个疑点,,希望大家能讨论下..)

In addition, the author ignores the economic background at that time. One cannot be sure that a decling market will recover soon after a two-year period of depression. If economy is blue(这个词感情色彩太重了,有点不客观) this year, people are unable to buy entertaining equipment even if they are interesting when they are busy with making living. Without taking the precondition into consideration, the author is rash to comes to conclusion about the games sales.

To sum up, the author should provide more evidence to support his own prediction: a prosperous economic situation, other factors attracting games players and an accurate survey showing potential consumers. Only with these supportive information, he can draw his conclusion.

相见不如怀念UID: 2229685

再提个意见,就是大家写完作业后可以放到WORD里面试一下,语法错误会自动给标出来.这样对自己的提醒要比别人改出来的好很多...有直观印象 :)

雨城浪子UID: 2204265

Strategies:
1. The coverage of the survey is limited to one aspect, e.g. graphics.
2. Lifelike graphics video games are limited to the most up to date computers/hardware.
3. The survey should also include the reasons of sale decline over the past two years.
4. The samples of the survey are not necessary to be the decision maker in purchasing video game.
5. The effectiveness of the advertisement may be questionable, especially when parents decide to buy a game.

字数：588          用时：2 hr (1st argument, hope to reduce time in future)          日期：2006-7-15

In this argument, the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games will likely increase significantly seems at first glance to be an noticeable conclusion. The editor relies only on a limited survey (e.g. graphics, samples of the survey) as well as lacking the analysis of the sale over the past two years. Close inspection of the survey, reveals, however, that it provides scant support at best for the editor’s argument.

Turning first to the only considered aspect in the survey, e.g. graphics of the video game, the editor assumes too hastily that the lifelikeness of the video game graphics will determine the decision of the purchasers -– rather than considers some other features -– may influence the buyers’ decision. Perhaps the video game players in the survey simply reflect their ideal need and desire for a video game, whereas the underlying reasons may include the price, the feasibility for multi-players, the story line and the story plot of a game, as well as the challenge and the difficulty of a game. With only graphics as the decisive factor and without taking account of other vital and plausible factors, the editor’s reason is quite unconvincing.

Even if lifelike graphics is the attributably key factor, video game players will think twice before they make their mind to buy a game featured with lifelike graphics as they have to upgrade their computer hardware to support the video game. However, the survey failed to account for the possible correlation between the willingness of the players to upgrade their computer and the lifelike graphics video game. For instance, the survey should show the percentage of the players who are willing to buy an expensive video graphics accelerator card (VGA card) and increase the amount of random access memory (RAM) to meet the requirement of a better and faster graphics game.

Turning to the survey, it failed to account for any possible reason for the decline in the past two years. It should rest on a more adequate field of investigations e.g. including the reasons which undermined the sale and caused decline over the past two years. These fundamental reasons may due to the downturn of the nation economy, the capability and eagerness of video game distributors, the requirement of the video game (requiring updated hardware), the escalating of pirated software, the trend and flavor of the players and the marketing strategies. The editor should analysis those reasons mentioned above and provide some good reasons which will boost the sale drawing any claim and assumption of the Whirlwind future sale.

Nevertheless, the samples of the survey are neither necessary to be the decision maker in purchasing video game nor necessary to be the buyers. They may not have a high buying power, and they may not be the money maker in their family. The survey should include the age, income and the level of decision making of the players. For example, if the parents are the one who make the decision, an extensive advertisement may not influence the parents to consider lifelike graphics game as they have to consider the expensive up-to-date computer support.

In sum, as it indicates that the editor’s argument is weak. To strengthen it the editor should provide a wider statistical survey to show the plausible factors which will influence the buyers. To better assess the argument, it would be useful to the incorporate the reasons why the sale declined in the past two years before the editor makes any assumption of the sale in the next few months.