1006G 备考日记 by ieyangj08——行胜于言

ieyangj08UID：2743219

早上看了几篇Argument习作，看得比较仔细，所以比较慢。有些感想，记录一下。每个Argument都有它关键的地方，也就是所谓的难点，或题目的本质。只有找到这些点，才能说明真正理解了题目。庆幸的是这点经过训练，一般都可以达到。段落围绕中心展开、用例子支持观点、衔接词的使用大家都做得很好，已近成了基本要求。Argument得高分的条件：理解题目本质、句式多变、语言选择。深入学习语法是很必要和重要的。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT203 - The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.

"At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals."

WORDS: 431
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-4-7 9:59:42


提纲：
1，在医院时间长短不能说明治疗质量
2，治愈比率同样不能说明治疗质量
3，医院有更多工作人员不一定能提供更好服务
4，投诉少不能说明服务好
对例子一一反驳，应点名非盈利性医院与盈利性医院的差别。仅有S和M两家医院，也不能说明所有的医院都如此。                                   


There are several facets are questionable in this argument. At first, the stayed time is not a good indication about the quality of treatment. Secondly, the cure rate can not indicate about the quality about the hospital. Thirdly, more employees for per patient could not ensure a better treatment for the patient. Finally, few complaints were received about the service does not demonstrate all the other people are satisfied with the service. So, the assertion which the author concluded in the argument is unreliable. 首段说明文章将要攻击的点

To begin with, the author has tried to make us believe that the Saluda hospital (SH) could provide better quality treatment because the average length of a patient's stay and the cure rate there is shorter than Megaville Hospital (MH).Lacking information about what kind of illness the patient have got, the author can not confidently draw any conclusion about the quality about the two hospitals. Maybe the patients who visited to SH have some slight sickness, and people may choose the big hospital like MH to cure some serious disease like cancer, or AIDS, and that kinds of sicknesses are not easy,even possible to heal. 较好，展开和例子可再详细些

Another question about the argument is that though there are more employees for per patient of SH than MH, the author can not make sure that every patient will be provided a better service. For the simple reason that we don't know the jobs of those employees, there may be some of them are bus drivers or cooks in cafeteria. They can do nothing to help patient restore. Granted that all the jobs the employees worked are helpful to the patients. We don't know whether they are loyal to their occupation. So the author generated the conclusion too hastily. 说明了非盈利性医院可能兼职较多，应再说明盈利性医院较专业，从而充分展开

Finally, the data about complaints about service of SH could not ensure us SH provides better service. Because we don't know, how many patients have been the two hospitals respectively to cure some sicknesses, and what fraction of them has reported a complaint. May be the quantity of the complaints of SH is less than that of MH. But the fraction may be larger. Granted that both the quantity and fraction of the complaints received by SH is less. The author can not convince us that all the other people are satisfied with the service. 攻击了抱怨数量和比例的差别，应再强调两者性质的差别

In conclusion, this argument can not be taken seriously as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should provide the detailed information about what kind of illness the patients have, what jobs do the employees worked for, and the exact proportion about the received complaints of all the patients.

这个题目可以攻击的点较多，属于比较好写的一类。但题目的本质是两家医院性质不同，一家为公益小医院、一家为盈利大医院。作者对多个证据展开了攻击，但不如选择一两个将其攻击透，其余的简要带过效果好。要么直接写题目的本质，要么选一两个分论点彻底攻击。这样才可以有效论证啊。

我的思路
两家医院的性质不同，一家为公益性医院，一家为盈利性医院。所以不能简单的通过一些表面现象将两者进行比较。
1、平均住院时间短和治愈率高不能说明S的非盈利医院优于M的盈利医院。可能去非盈利医院的病人症状较轻，例如感冒catch a cold、发烧fever等，去盈利医院的病人症状较重，心脏病heart disease、牙病odontopathy等。
2、平均医务人员多不能说明S医院优于M。小医院的病人较少，大医院较多。即使的确较少，可能S的医务人员都为兼职或志愿者，M的为专业人员、专家，每个人都有较好的职业技术水平。此外，大医院专业人员较多，例如操作仪器设备的人员、化验人员等。
3、投诉率低不能说明S医院优于M。由于公益性医院免费或收费低，人们对它的期望也会相对较低。反而盈利性医院收费较高，人们对它的期望较高，所以满意率较低。
4、即使S的非盈利医院的确优于M的盈利医院，不能说明所有的非盈利医院优于盈利医院。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT159 - The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.

WORDS: 431
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-3-17 下午 08:10:53


In this argument, the author recommends both using air conditioners and fans as an effective way of saving money on electricity. In order to justify it, the author cites a survey that different families being diverse in the way of cooling the house spend different money on electricity. However, close scrutiny of the statistic and the line of reasoning reveal that it is not convincing. 开头简洁、概括、句式多变

A threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. Lacking of assurance and information about the randomness and relative size of the survey' sample, the author cannot convince me the conclusion of the survey is reliable. As the author mentions, the nation of Claria covers a vast physical area, without enough large sample, so it is entirely possible that the survey is not representative of the real situation of Claria. Moreover different place will have different temperature and the price of electricity, without comprehensive consideration these factors, I strongly doubt the reliability of the survey. The dubious survey undermines the follow conclusions which rely on it. 攻击调查的可信度、样本随机性、样本量，这点攻击较弱，除非无话时慎用

Secondly, the author asserts different way of cooling the house causes the decrease of electricity consuming just because they happen together. Obviously, the evidence for the casual relationship is too vague to believe. Furthermore, to satisfy the same requirement, common sense informs us air condition costs more electricity than fans. Thus, there must be other reasons causing the decrease of the electric consumption. The most reasonable one is that the expense for air condition is so money-consuming that the citizens would like to tolerate the hot weather rather than pay for it. 即使空调用电量较少，可能较贵，大家买不起。这点理由很好，可以单独拿出来展开。

Even though the author can substantiate foregoing assumption and assertion, I still cannot accept his/her recommendation because the author overlooks other factors contributes to the amounts of electricity. As we know, for a family, facilities of cooling the house take little part of electricity. Computer, lights, television, fridge and so forth cost more electricity. Thus it is possible that even though the method of saving electricity recommended by the author works, it makes little contribution to the total electricity consuming so that we cannot see the change on
spending money. Furthermore, if the electric consumptions of other factors increase, it will not save the money, strongly contradicting to the conclusion of the author.

To sum up, the recommendation suffers from statistic and logic flaws causing that it is not warranted. In order to strengthen it, the author should provide the compelling evidence to prove the reliability of the survey and the casual relationship between the way of cooling their house and decrease of electric consumption. Additionally, the author should also provide appealing evidence to prove the total electric consumption will decrease.

题目中家庭用电的话题离日常生活较近，属于比较好写的一类。文章展开充分、句式多变，整体较好。本题中学到的关键一点：攻击建议的可行性。

我的思路
1、三类家庭的用电量差异可能由于其他原因。节能型电器的使用、调查的可信度、样本的随机性。
2、制冷电器对于整体家庭用电的贡献。computer，television，light，fridge 其他电器用电量上升，反而会使整体用电量增加。
3、C国地域辽阔，其他较冷地区可能不用空调或电扇。即使都需要制冷，可能空调在该国较贵，多数人买不起。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT163 - The following is taken from the editorial section of the local newspaper in Rockingham.

"In order to save a considerable amount of money, Rockingham's century-old town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-efficient building that some citizens have proposed. The old town hall is too small to comfortably accommodate the number of people who are employed by the town. In addition, it is very costly to heat the old hall in winter and cool it in summer. The new, larger building would be more energy efficient, costing less per square foot to heat and cool than the old hall. Furthermore, it would be possible to rent out some of the space in the new building, thereby generating income for the town of Rockingham."

WORDS: 391
TIME: 00:25:46
DATE: 2009/3/12 10:40:26


Citing the comparison between the old hall and new hall, the author comes to the conclusion that on the purpose of saving money, Rockingham' century-old town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-efficient building. However, this argument is based on a series of unproven assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands. 开头简洁、概要

One such assumption is that the new hall will save energy. Even though the new one will be more energy efficient, costing less per square foot, the author ignores the fact the new hall is far larger than the old hall. In which case, the overall costs of the new hall would be no less, perhaps more than the energy costs of the old hall. Unless the author could provide exact data to demonstrate the new hall can really save energy, his assumption is dubious. 段中心句值得学习，句式多变，该段很好

The author's claim that building the new hall will save a considerable amount of money is open to doubt. On the one hand, tearing down the old hall and building the new hall is considerably money-consuming. The author does not inform the exact amount of money needed; maybe it might lead the town council to budget strain. On the other hand, the author mentions some of the space could be rented out to generate income. However, people might not be willing to rent the hall, in which case, the town would not get any revenue. In short, without providing solid evidences that building new hall would save money, the author's proposal is unpersuasive.

Finally, as the current hall is century-old, it might have historic values. For example, the old hall might be a famous tourist site of town, which attracts thousands of tourists every year. Or perhaps, the old hall might have certain special meaning in the local residents' minds. They might regard the hall as the symbol of the town. If either of the cases is true, the old hall's merits far outweigh the new one's advantages.

All in all, this argument relies on certain unwarranted assumptions and therefore specious at best. To convince readers to accept his/her conclusion that replacing the old hall with new one, the author should provide information on whether the new hall will save energy and save a considerable amount of money, and last but not least, the old hall' historic values.

文章结构清晰，思路条理，句式多变，对语言的控制能力很好，展开较充分，很值得学习。

我的思路
1、建新楼的花费要远高于每平米的制冷制热费，
2、新楼面积大，总制冷制热花费可能更多
3、文物保护，该大厅对R的意义，及其历史价值

Argument开头、结尾、段落中心句需要留意和学习。句式、语言控制能力需要多加练习提高。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT137 - The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.

"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."

WORDS: 416          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/3/9 16:28:42


In this argument, the author drew the conclusion about the increase of recreational use of the Mason River, after his/her seemingly convincing procedure of reasoning, and suggested the City council to increase the budget for the improvement of lands along Mason River. As far as I see it, this argument omits some substential information, and therefore suffers some logical fallacies. 首段简要概括文章，作者目的、支持，表明有逻辑错误

To begin with, the author falsely established a causal relationship between the complaint about the quality of the water and the seldom using of the nearby River for recreational activity. Although the two things happened simultaneously, but there are probably many other reasons for seldom using of the water, too. For example, in the city there is a swimming pool, which supplies a good service and has new infrastructure. So the residents prefer going there to siwm in the river. Like swimming pool, other places, such as park and artificial lack, will attract people as well. Without providing us the information about other places in the city, the author's assumption is invalid.

In addition, can the announcement about cleaning up Mason River by the agency make the use of river increased? Even assuming that the residents seldom use the River, because they worried the quality of the water, a promise about cleaning up cannot make the river really clean at a short time. The environmental restore will take a relative long time, as we know. Moreover, the author did not tell us the detail of the cleaning plan. When does begin it, and how does the agency put it into practice? So the author's conclusion about a increase of use of the water lacks credibility. 疑问句作中心句

Last but not least, the author's suggestion is also doubtful. Even if the river can be cleaned up, it is not clear that why the council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the lands along the Mason River.  Can this plan represent the residents' real will? It is entirely possible that a majority of residents want to keep these lands wild as before, so that they can get a real relax in the nature. The author did not show the opinion of the residents, therefore the final suggestion may be not proper.

To sum up, in this argument, the evidence is not enough to support what the author maintained. To strengthen, more information, such as an introduction of the city, a detailed plan about cleaning up the river and a poll about the improvement of lands, are necessary.

段落中心句非常值得学习。支持原因和例子也很好。唯一缺点是拼写错误较多，和少量语法错误。

我的思路：
1不从事水上活动可能由于其他原因。不安全，其他新兴娱乐设施。
2新计划不一定能净化水域，没有给出详细计划。
3提高公有土地？可能需要保留。扩展海岸线，增加相应娱乐设施。

文中   棕色         为句式上很好的地方
         绿色        为举例上很好的地方
         浅蓝色     为错误（已修正）
        下划线      为加强

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.

WORDS: 475          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/3/6 17:32:50


Comparing the new technologies with the traditional ones, and then based upon the superiority in electricity reducing of the former, the author thus predicted an optimistic perspective of the new copper-extracting skills. However, to prove those hypothesise requires more work of reasoning and more relative background evidences.

To begin with, the author might intensively conceal the purity of copper proceeded and the expenditure of replacing new equipment. Primarily, the quality of the products should not be overlooked. Admittedly, for its important influence in earning profits, cost should be considered as an important factor in comprehensive judgment of new industrial skills, whereas the quality and quantity of the products are even more decisive in determining practical value of certain new technology. As is self-evident, one industrial innovation could be broadly accepted only when its manufactures satisfied customers. If, for example, the new process of copper-extracting technologies failed to extract more pure copper, factories would never be willing to accept new technologies although the traditional one expends more electricity. In addition, the technical costs are undeserved slipped. When the CEO of one copper-extracting corporation endeavor to decrease their daily cost of energy, the primary consideration of him/her would be how much should he/she pay for the new equipment? If the costs of exchanging equipment, for instance, are much higher than the spending of extra electricity, one would require great act of will to eliminate old equipment. Since the expectation of the author established mainly in wide spread and broad using of the new industrial skills, he/she should not neglect the possibilities mentioned above. 该段可精简

What is more, the effects of the new technologies to environment as well face the similar challenge. Are those new industrial skills detrimental to ecosphere? There might be opportunity that the equipment utilizing those technologies would release great amount of detrimental gases or polluted water to our living circumstance. Actually, if certain new technology will be harmful to our generations, it would never be actualized. Since the author rashly skip this possibility while focus merely on the power saving, the optimistic perspective he/she expecting might never emerge. True, new revolutionary industrial technology rarely failed to influence our daily lives, nonetheless, before verifying its practical influences, the positive anticipation is somewhat too hastily. 该段说明新技术可能对环境产生影响，可与上端合并说明新技术未必能广泛应用

Last but not least, the author failed to take into account that there might be other alternative possibilities to reach out to the purpose of energy saving. Do there exist any chemical compounds that could accelerate the copper-extracting action? As is known to all, appropriate catalyst could lower the temperature required in chemical interactions and therefore reduce the cost of electricity. 还有节能的其他措施

In sum, were there detailed background information demonstrating quality of the products and cost of the machine, particular description convincing the essential impact to circumstance, comprehensive deduction excluding other possible approaches, the expectation of the author would be more rational.

本文主要说明新技术未必能广泛应用和还有其他节能的措施。该结构安排有些不均衡，可将段落里的某些点拉出单独成段，文章的结构可以调整为：

我的思路
新技术在铜含量较低时是否会省电？
新技术是否能广泛使用？新技术生产产品的质量和数量。
更换新设备的花费。

题目中提到新技术或新计划时，应考虑它们自身的花费和可实践性。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

Argument159.

The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity.（其他原因） A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.

In this argument, the arguer points out that the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. To support his recommendation, the arguer claims that it is based on a recent study. However, at the first glance, the arguer seems to be plausible, but after a close scrutiny, it lies in several fallacies and logical flaws discussed below.

To begin with, the arguer neglects an important factor which the nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. This phenomenon leads to the different temperature in different region. Therefore, in common sense, with different temperature it is absolutely different costs on electricity. For example, A is natural cooler than B, so A must pay less electric money on fans or air conditioners because the residents in A have already felt cooler than B. Consequently, without consider this factor, the arguer's claim is open to doubt. 该段可以再展开，某些地方需要保暖，制冷费用只占整体电费的很低比例

Secondly, the arguer fails to prove that it is the fact that all the electric costs which they have seen is the fans' or air conditioners' using cost. In other word, the arguer commits a false equal relationship between the overall electric cost and the fans' and air conditioners’ cost. It is entirely possible that when the residents are using fans or air conditioners, they also use other electric facilities, such as computers, televisions and so forth. Thus, without ruling out other possibilities about the electric cost, the arguer's claim can not convince us thoroughly. 该段对论点进行了展开

Even if I was to concede that it is the fact that this overall electric cost is equal to the cooling equipments' cost, the arguer's point is also suspect. It is likely that the longer we use the electric facilities, the more probability they happen to malfunction. It is absolutely possible that the saving money is so little that we can neglect it while the electric equipment is mighty expensive. Therefore, it may not save money if these facilities have something wrong as the result of long time usage. 该段推理有些含糊

To sum up, this argument lacks credible because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To better bolster and strengthen it, the arguer needs to provide specific information about the electric cost and offer us more data of local temperature in different regions.

文章分论点选择还有待改进，从而提升文章深度。

我的思路
1、三类家庭的用电量差异可能由于其他原因。节能型电器energy-saving appliances的使用、调查的可信度、样本的随机性。
2、制冷电器对于整体家庭用电的贡献。computer，television，light，fridge 其他电器用电量上升，反而会使整体用电量增加。
3、C国地域辽阔，其他较冷地区可能不用空调或电扇。即使都需要制冷，可能空调在该国较贵，多数人买不起。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

Argument 180

"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. 公司不同 One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. (其他原因)Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee-a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City 三周的学习时间对工作的影响 and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read.

At first glance, it would seem, according to the logic of the argument, that Acme Publishing Company (AC) will benefit greatly by requiring all of the employers to take the Easy Read, would be a foregone conclusion. However, the reasoning behind the argument is flawed for several reasons: the author's assumption that the employees taking the Easy Read has greatly improved productivity is open to doubt; the author omits the possibility the training may be useless to Acme; and the author fail to provide information to support that all employees of Acme need to take the training.

The author's assumption that the employees taking the training have improved productivity is specious. The author only takes two employees, the number of whom is too small to represent the overall employees taking the training, to support him. Perhaps other employees' productivity has not improved; even worse, taking the three-week seminar will require the employees to take a three- weeks excuse, which will serious affect the normal jobs of the employees. Besides, there may be other factors that explain the achievements of two employees. Perhaps, their abilities have already been very outstanding. Without the training one of them still can read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; while the other still can rise to vice president. In sum, the author should provide more details of the other employees taking the training. 攻击了参加培训的员工可以提高生产率，该段展开较好

The author fail to guarantee other companies' success will apply to Acme. After all they are different companies and belong to different fields. Perhaps the training will not succeed in Acme for its disparities from other companies, such as the company size, the employees' jobs and the education background of employees. For example, maybe the employees of Acme are graduating from those famous universities, and they already have outstanding reading speeds, which do not have to be improved any more. Without considering the dissimilarities between these companies, the author can not assert Acme’s employees need the training. 其他公司成功，A不一定成功，展开较好

Even assuming the employees of Acme have the need to improve their reading speed, the author's proposal that all employees take the training does not make sense. Common sense tells us that a company's employees have various jobs, many of which do not need the employees to read. For example, the company may have cleaners, whose jobs are just to do the cleaning. If require these cleaners to take the training, at the expense of $500 per person, would it not a waste of money? 即使培训有效果，不一定要所有员工培训

Improving the productivity is of great importance to the company; however, the personnel director of Acme should not be hasty to give his proposal. To convince the readers to accept his conclusion, the author has much work to do: he should find if the training really can improve productivity; he should provide data to show whether Acme's employees need to take it and which employees need and which need not the training.

本文各段落展开较好，值得学习。

我的思路
1 参加培训未必能提供生产率。两名员工的提升可能由于其他原因
2 其他公司成功，A不一定成功。
3 三周学习时间对工作的影响。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

Argument 165

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

According to the sales of their newest store and the results of a survey by Cheeses of the World, the president of a chain of cheese stores comes to the conclusion that the best way to improve profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheeses and concentrate primarily on domestic  cheeses. Though sound as it seems, the reasoning is flawed in several aspects.

To begin with, in the newest store the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconisin are the best selling cheeses does not mean that all the domestic cheeses sell well. It is entirely possible that all the other domestic cheeses nevertheless sell badly. Perhaps, in the newest store, the domestic cheeses except for those from Wisconisin sell not as well as the imported cheeses and the overall sales of imported cheeses are far more than that of domestic cheeses. If this is the case, discontinuing stocking the imported cheeses, the stores, whose overall sales will drop sharply, will definitely lose huge profits. Unless the president finds out the other cheeses' sales, his proposal will not be convincing. 不一定所有的国内奶酪销售都好，有些牵强

Besides, even assuming that in the newest store, the sales of domestic are better than those of imported cheeses, the president's advice still be too hasty. The president has not provided any evidence that the newest can typify all of their stores. There are many disparities among all the stores, such as the geography positions, the economical conditions of the cities where the stores are located, the tastes of the stores' customers, which will lead to different  results of the president' proposal in variable stores. To guarantee this proposal can improve profits, the presidents must make an investigation to learn what the sales in other stores and whether the sales of the newest store can represent all the stores' sales. 新店不一定代表所有的店

In addition, the result of the survey by the magazine can lends little support to the president's proposal. The majority of the survey's respondents are the subscribers of the magazine and not representatives of the overall customers of this chain of cheese stores. Perhaps the respondents' tastes differ greatly from the tastes of this chain of stores' customers, who more prefer imported cheeses. If the president wants to know what the tastes of his stores' customers, he should do a survey among the customers of their chain of stores, rather than blindly believing one magazine’s survey. 杂志的调查对象可能与该连锁店完全不同

In sum, there are still many jobs demanding the presidents to do before his proposal's carried out. Such as, making an investigation to learn what the sales of the other cheeses and what the tastes of customers in all the stores of the chains are.

本文文字控制能力很好，值得学习。推理跳跃性较大，需要注意。

我的思路
1国内奶酪畅销的趋势未必持续。可能由于促销、降价等因素。
2新店的情况未必说明老店如此。老店有忠实的顾客，钟情于进口奶酪的口味。地理位置不同、城市不同、客户群体不同。
3杂志的订阅者不能代表整体消费者。可能他们都是年轻人或学生等某个特定群体。
4降低进口奶酪的库存未必可以增加利润。即使销量下降，单个进口奶酪的利润可能仍然很高。减少钟情于进口奶酪的顾客，从而影响口碑。

Irvine666版主的修改太牛了，贴过来学习了。

作者的论证方式是：1.国产的奶酪卖的好（已给）+2.杂志的调查（已给）---> 推论1：本国的产品更受欢迎（潜台词：外国的不受欢迎）
   【你忽略了这些】3.limiting inventory对减少开销有用（已给）--->推论2：limiting inventory对增加利润有用
                         接下来：推论1+推论2---->只卖本国的，不卖外国的奶酪对增加利润有用。（结论）
【然而你的第一段：】1+2--->结论

argument，每个小段批的都是推断，不是批的结论，更不是批的材料。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

WORDS: 429
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-2-19 15:55:39

In this argument, the author brought out several facts to support his loan plan. First, currently there is no jazz club nearby Monroe (M). Second, jazz is of great popularity in M. Third, nearly $1000 was spent per year in jazz nationwide. A careful inspection will reveal that these facts are not sufficient to guarantee a profitable result of C note.

To begin with, the favor of 'Jazz Nightly' doesn't necessarily indicate that M's resident will also be interested to take part in a jazz club. On the contrary, the highest-rated radio program which airs every weeknight may attract those people, and provide them with a reason not to attend a jazz club. After all, turning on the radio is much more convenient than driving to a club. Neither can the residence of several well-know jazz musicians infer that a jazz club located in M will be warmly welcomed. It is quite possible that those musicians are acting in the nearest jazz club, or on frequent nationwide show.Without evidence that the people in M will be eager to attend a jazz club, I can not accept that C will be so welcomed.

Another critical fallacy the argument suffer is, the nationwide study that typical jazz fan spends nearly $1000 per year on jazz doesn't necessarily apply to M. It is quite possible that the fans in M do not follow these general trends. Besides, the money spend on jazz club may only contribute a little part to the whole budget. Thus, lacking evidence that M's residents will behave similarly as the typical jazz fans do, and they will indeed spend large amount of money on jazz club, the author's conclusion that C Note will make money is unconvincing.

Finally, even assuming the people in M will be crazy about jazz club and they prone to spend a lot of money attending a jazz night, it doesn't means that C Note will definitely be profitable. As we all know, both revenue and cost contribute to the profit. Probably the rent in M is quite expensive, or the salary level in M is relatively high, which will inevitably increase the cost. Unless the author provides more information about supply, demand, and relative costs, it is almost impossible to make sure whether C Note will make money.

In conclusion, the argument is not well reasoned. To strengthen it the author should provide clearer evidence that M's residents will go in for C Note. The author should also clearly analyze the relative costs against its incomings, and make this application more persuasive.


我的思路
1、最近的俱乐部，如果非常出名，60miles并不会显得很长（也就1一个多小时车程），人们可能更愿意去那家俱乐部。
2、100000个人参加的爵士乐节不能证明爵士在M市很受欢迎。那些人可能大部分都是从外地慕名而来。
3、电台节目可能吸引更多的爵士爱好者。方便、花费少。
4、全国调查1000元，未必C在M市盈利。即使如此，不一定都用在俱乐部。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

Argument 51

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

WORDS: 458
TIME: 00:29:57
DATE: 2009-2-17 PM 12:40:35

According to the preliminary result of a study of two groups of patients, the author comes to the conclusion that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. Although sound it seems, the argument is flawed in several aspects.

Primarily, maybe other factors other than the taking the antibiotics contributed the different effects of the two treatments in the study. The two groups of patients were treated by different doctors. Except for the antibiotics, there are many differences between the treatments - the doctors' skills, the treatment measures and the equipments the doctor used. Maybe, Dr. Newland has better skills, and the measures and equipments he used were more advanced. All of these advantages can explain why the recuperation time of Dr. Newland's patients was greatly reduced. In addition, the conditions of the patients in the two groups maybe different. Perhaps, the patients of the first group have less serious injuries than those of the latter group, leading the first group easily to recover. 两组结果的差异可能有其他因素引起。该段语言组织一般，表达略有混乱

Besides, the author ignores the negative effects of the antibiotics. Nearly all the medicines have more or less side effects. The author provides no evidence to prove the antibiotics is an exception. The author only mentions the patients' recuperation time, no informing us whether the patients in the first group had some new symptoms, such as headache, nausea, powerless and sleepy. Even if the patients did not have any new symptom, there is no guarantee that in the future they will not have any symptoms caused by the antibiotics. Perhaps, many patients have serious headache three months later. Lacking clinical experiment, the author can not assert that the antibiotics do not have negative effects, considering the safety of the patients. 论点作者忽略了抗生素的副作用

Additionally, given that the antibiotics do not have any side effects and help patients with severe muscle strain recover, the author's proposal that all the patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics is unacceptable. The treatments of the patients with light muscle strain are not the same with those of the patients with severe muscle strain. Perhaps, without taking antibiotics, the patients with light muscle strain will still recover quickly and will not have the danger to get second diagnosed. If this is the case, it is not reasonable to advise those patients to take antibiotics, letting alone the high price of antibiotics. 建议所有病人使用抗生素不合理，轻度肌肉拉伤和重度的治疗应该不同

In sum, the argument is not well reasoned. To strengthen it, the author must prove us that it is the antibiotics rather than other factors explain the difference between the recoveries of the two groups of patients. What is more, the author should prove the antibiotics have no side effects and all the patients with muscle strain need to take them.

我的思路：
1 两组病人的实验不能证明二次受伤使得严重肌肉拉伤难以恢复的假设。实验中未提到二次受伤。
2 实验不能证明抗生素对肌肉拉伤的治疗效果。实验结果可能由于医生的差别。题目未说两组实验的其他因素相同。两组病人的严重情况，治疗方案的差异，医疗设备的差异等。
3 严重肌肉拉伸不一定能推广到所有肌肉拉伸。轻度肌肉拉伸可能不需要使用抗生素。毕竟有副作用，而且较贵。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT4 - The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

WORDS: 365         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/1/25 16:57:13


In this argument, the author draws a conclusion; one should choose Adams Realty (AR) rather than Fitch Realty (FR), by a series of deductions. However, to my understanding, the suggestion is based on invalid analogies and incogent evidences. 开头简洁，可取

First and foremost, the author emphasizes that AR owns more real estate agents than FR possesses. But he failed to consider possibilities that more workers are by no means 决不 more work efficient. The workers in FR may share comfortable work environment, enough human touch, and surrounded by optimistic attitude which are rarely in AR. Therefore, workers in FR have more motivations to urge themselves to higher profits. Furthermore, the cost of human resource management and operation must be taken in to consideration to judge the final profits. It is highly probably that AR spent more budgets on workers' salaries and daily water rate and electric charge, which potentially influenced its profits.  语言和展开都很好，员工多不意味着效率高

Moreover, high price of home sales may not lead to high profits either. As it is known to us all, profit is produced by sell price minus cost. So besides the price of building, we have to consider another aspect -- production and operation cost. Perhaps FR has many long-term suppliers, and they built mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation together. Hence the prices of materials of FR are much lower than the ones of AR, Which play a crucial role in determining final profits. So the conclusion: AR is more powerful than FR is doubtful. 高销售价格不意味着高利润，该段可从房子本身质量的差异展开

Finally, the author failed to consider the change of price and requirement in real estate market. Maybe customers were poorer than they are now, or probably by the development of the town, the population explosion is emerged. Thus the needs of apartment are obviously elevated, which, result in fast sale. So, the suggestion that buying AR's building lead to quick sell of house is not as cogent as it seems to be.

As is mentioned above, the conclusion is not persuasive to me. The author has to furnish more effective evidences such as the annual bulletins of two companies and more background information just like comparing the economy now to it was ten years ago to readers.

我的思路
1 员工数量和兼职比例不能说明F劣于A。可能F的员工都为资深代理，在其他更好的公司或政府部门任职。A的员工仅为新员工。
2 总收入高和平均售价高不能说明A优于F。两者代理的房子种类可能不同，F代理的房子可能不易销售。
3 作者两套房子的销售不能证明A优于F。可能10年前经济衰退，房市较冷，去年经济稳健，房市活跃。两套房子本身存在差别，一套位置较好且定价合理。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT169 - The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University.

"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers."

WORDS: 421         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-12-7 16:38:55

In the argument, the arguer recommends that we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire in order to attract the most gifted teachers and researches and improve the morale of our entire staff. The argument is mainly based on some studies conducted by Bronston College. Although the recommendation sounds indeed reasonable at first sight, a series of logical flaws may undermine the argument.

The threshold problem of this argument is that the studies conducted by Bronston College might not be reliable despite of the similar location.  The information about the studies is too vague. Neither does the arguer provide information concerning the process of these studies, nor does the arguer offer any evidence that these studies are reliable. Without enough evidence about the study, it is impossible to assess the validity and reliability of these studies.套用模板痕迹严重

In addition, whether the spouse's job offer is the main factor influencing the most largely on the most gifted teachers and researches is questionable. The arguer unfairly assumes that the spouse's job offer is an attractive condition for most gifted teachers and researchers and that it is difficult for their spouses to find proper jobs. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case, nor does the arguer provide any evidence to substantiate the assumptions. It is highly possible that the most gifted teachers and researches focus more on the scientific environment and the level of their fellows instead of their spouse's job. Besides, their spouses might also be capable enough to find a better job in companies or government rather than Pierce University. Without proving the assumptions, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his/her recommendation. 假设配偶没能力找到工作，为配偶提供工作不是接受offer的唯一因素，两点可拆开来说，和在一起有些混乱

Last but not least, the arguer groundlessly assumes that this recommendation would be effective to improve morale of our entire staff. As the arguer mentions, the offer is only for each new faculty member we hire. If so, the old faculty member might feel it is not fair for them and their spouses. As a result, even though the method is able to attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers, it undermines the morale of our old staff. 老员工可能不满

In sum, the argument lack credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to prove the reliability of these studies and revise the recommendation in order to fulfill its function of improving the morale of our entire staff.

文章对语言的控制能力还有提升的空间。

我的思路
1 假设配偶没能力找到工作。其配偶完全有能力在企业或政府找到更好的工作。
2 为配偶提供工作不是决定接受offer的唯一因素，还有学校名气、学术氛围、科研设备、工资待遇等。
3 未必能提高整体士气。老员工的士气可能会被打击。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT188 - A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications. When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids-a painkiller-to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women. This research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women.

WORDS: 424          TIME: 00:28:34          DATE: 2008-12-1 15:54:44


In the argument, the arguer draw a conclusion that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. Besides, the arguer also suggests that researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. The argument is mainly based on a research about 28 men and 20 women having their wisdom teeth extracted. However, although the conclusion sounds indeed reasonable at first thought, several logical flaws may seriously undermine this argument.

First of all, the arguer commits a fallacy of "hasty generalization". Firstly, the research only tests one kind of painkiller-- kappa opioids without testing other kinds of painkiller's effect. Based on a specific example, it is logically unsounded to make suggestion for all medications. It is very possible that other kind of medications might be completely different from kappa opioids, they might have the same effect on men and women, or might be more effective on men than women. Secondly, the result of the research is limitedly based on one kind of situation--extracting the wisdom teeth. It is likely that this situation is not typical in general and in other cases kappa opioids might have the same effect on men and women. In fact, in the face of such limited evidence, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all.  未验证其他的药物，仅限于拔智齿后的疼痛

Moreover, the research cited by the arguer is too vague to be informative. The number of the subjects, 28 men and 20 women, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusion. Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of the most people. It is possible that the women in the group are more health than the men. Without better evidence that the research is statistically reliable, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his conclusion. 样本量小，未说明其他因素相同

Last but not least, the arguer assumes that kappa opioids are more effective to women than men, according to the evidence that the women reported felling much less pain than the men. But it is not sufficient to substantiate the assumption. It is entirely possible that the women might own more powerful ability to stand the pain or the men might express the pain openly. 疼痛为主观感受

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to do more scientific and substantial research. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the reference of other medications.

文中作者攻击了题目的多个逻辑错误点，然而感觉都不透彻，可以有所删减和侧重

我的思路
1 样本量太少，不能说明问题。
2 未说明两组实验的其他因素相同。
3 汇报的疼痛为主观感受，可能疼痛忍受度不同
4 KO未必对所有女性疼痛都有效。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT80 - The following appeared as an editorial in a health magazine.

"Clormium 5 is an odorless, tasteless, and generally harmless industrial by-product that can enter the water supply. A preliminary study has linked cooking with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes. Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5. Although it is possible to remove clormium 5 from water, the costs of routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford. Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers."  那些负担不起净化c5的社区，应用瓶装水冷却器更换公共建筑里的饮水机

WORDS: 397          TIME: 00:28:25          DATE: 2008-11-6 19:56:41


Before the implementation the recommendation in the argument above, there are several evidence which need to be reexamined in some other aspects, as discussed below.

To begin with, the result of study is open to doubt. Firstly, the argument above provide no detail or information concerning how many people participate the study and how they are selected. Common sense tells us that the smaller the sample size is, the less reliable and credible the result of study will be. Perhaps, only 100 people participate the study, if this is the case, this small sample size is insufficient and imprecise to draw any conclusion. Also due to lacking of information concerning how people are selected to participate the study, we cannot conclude whether the result of study is representative enough. Secondly, the study overlooks other factors which can lead to allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, due to eating some unclean food, some of the participants get allergies and skin rashes. If this is the case, the conclusion renders its incredibility due to ignore other factors which can lead the same symptoms, such as skin rashes. 样本数量、随机性，过敏皮疹可能由于其他原因

In addition, even if the result of the study is substantiated, it does not follow that presence of clormium 5 will definitely cause allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, the amount of clormium 5 in the drinking water is little so that it is insufficient to cause people sick. Perhaps, some other materials exist in the drinking water too, which prohibit the effect of clormium 5 to cause people sick. Without ruling out all these possibilities above, the conclusion of argument is groundless to me. 过敏皮疹的其他原因吗，可与上段后部合并

Last not the least, even if the foregoing assumptions are all substantiated, it does not follow that replacing drinking fountains in public buildings with bottled-water coolers will be the best solution. The argument overlooks other methods to deal with drinking water containing clormium 5, which maybe more economical and effective. Perhaps, adding some medicines into the water can offset the effects of clormium 5. Further, the argument does not provide any information concerning bottled-water. Perhaps, these bottled-water still contains clormium 5. In this sense, the recommendation amounts to nothing. 忽略解决问题的其他途径

In conclusion, the argument above fails to convince me. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide more detail about the preliminary study above and other methods which can be used for dealing with the drink water containing clormium 5.


我的思路
1 过敏和皮疹未必是由于用含有C5的水做饭引起。可能由于其他原因，气候变化、食物。
2 那些负担不起花费的社区饮用水是否都存在clormium 5？
3.如果上面两个假设成立，那安装瓶装水冷却器是否有效？或者是最便宜且有效的办法？
4 如果要防止allergies and skin rashes，光在公共建筑安装这个是远远不够的。家里、工作单位？