1006G 备考日记 by ieyangj08——行胜于言

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

WORDS: 550         TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2008/10/21

In this argument, the author claims that Old Dairy company is not worthy for investors, because many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, which make people regard them as unhealthy foods. Yet, just based on the cursory survey and unsubstantiated assumptions, the argument is far away to be convincing.

First of all, the reliability and generalizability of the survey is open to question. In this survey, 80 percent of the respondents want to reduce the intake of fats and cholesterol. However, the 80 percentage could be significant if the overall number of respondents is 10 million, while it could be meaningless if there are only 10 respondents in the survey. What is more, the backgrounds and health conditions of these respondents are also important. If the 80 percent respondents all suffer from obesity, heart diseases or diabetes, the result of the survey cannot represent the attitude of most healthy people. In addition, the location of the survey is kept unknown as well. Common sense informs us that in developed regions where overweight lists as one of the top health problems, people may highly concern about low-fat diets. While in some poverty region, the high-fat product might be more popular. If Old Dairy's markets mainly locate in the poverty regions other than developed regions, the influence of high-fat foods might be little. In a word, without detailed information of the respondents in the survey, the author can hardly draw to the conclusion that most people would refuse to choose Old Dairy's high-fat foods. 质疑调查的可信度，样本容量、调查群体特征、调查地点。展开详实，质疑调查的好段落

Secondly, the fact that low-fact foods abound in many stores lends little support to the conclusion. For one thing, there are many low-fact foods does not mean that high-fat foods are losing their customers. It is entirely possible that the overall sale of low-fat foods is lower than high-fat foods. Some high-fat foods, such as butter, are dispensible to many families. Also, the higher cost for producing low-fat foods may prevent them gaining high profits.  For another, the author does not cite whether the low-fat foods are competitors toward Old Dairy's products. If most of the low-fat foods are bread and soft-drink, while Old Dairy focus on ice-cream, the low-fat products can hardly threaten Old Dairy's sales.

Finally, granted the high-fat foods would influence Old Dairy's profit, it is still presumptuous to judge that Old Dairy's stock are not worthy for investing. On the one hand, according to the reputation of Old Dairy, it might still occupy a large market. After all, the price and taste of food are also play vital roles during the selling. Even though many of Old Dairy's products are not healthy, people may still love them. Furthermore, although many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, it does not preclude that Old Dairy also produce many healthy foods which are low in the two ingredients. Perhaps the healthy foods could guarantee Old Dairy’s high profit. 该点有些无力，题目已说明多数产品，可说明公司从事其他产业  On the other hand, even if the price of Old Dairy's stock is declining, it may not the best chance to sell the stocks. If Old Dairy has already realized the problem and has made efforts to develop new healthy foods, Old Dairy's stock would have a high potential to increase. Considering the possible rise of price, it might be a wise investment to buy Old Dairy’s stocks, let alone keep them.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. It can be improved by considering the recent sales of Old Dairy’s products and the price movements of its stock. After all, evaluating an investment needs comprehensive market surveys and long-term perspectives. 结尾很好

文章展开详实，结构很好，整体很不错。

我的思路：
1 未说明调查总人数，可能仅10人回复。10人可能obesity，heart diseases，diabetes
2 未必销量下降。有愿望并不一定买低脂食品。吸烟危害健康，但仍有很多人买烟。口味独特，忠实顾客。
3 店里低脂食物多可能因为滞销。
3 未必不值得投资。该公司还有其他产业，或已经意识到问题在改进。决定投资与否是一件复杂的事情。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes 健美操班 are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

----------------------------------       正文       --------------------------------

While it is true that the facts presents above contribute to the idea that the residents in Plainsville concern about leading a healthy life, it can hardly be concluded from the facts that Nature's way company should build its new store in Plainsville.

In the first place, people in Plainsville may in the favor of wearing comfortable clothes during their leisure time since the suits and leather shoes are much too formal in their spare times. Therefore, it will not be surprising that the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are all-time highs. Moreover, perhaps Plainsville is a location which contains kinds of stadiums 体育场馆, in which various of sports are made everyday. So surely the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing will be high due to the enormous population taking exercise there. Thus, the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all time highs can not provide enough evidence that the residents in Plainsville are in favor of leading healthy lives as well as health food.

Second, there are many possible alternatives ignored ,which can also greatly influence the health pub’s business. Perhaps the former management faculty of that club failed in increasing the pub’s attractiveness, which includes the quality of service, the infrastructure of the pub and etc, therefore, even people who like exercise would not like to attend the pub. So when the problems mensioned are solved properly, it is quite possible that the pub has more members than ever. Thus, there is no clear causal relationship between the increase of pub members and the increase of people who are interested in leading healthy lives.  该段论据不能有效支持论点

Finally, not all the next generations are participating the “fitness for future” program willingly. Given that people always reject compulsory things, the products of Nature’s way may be rejected subconsciously by the ones who attend the program nilly-willy. Even if all of the future generations participate the program actively, there are obviously differences between regular exercise and health food. It is highly possible that a man who is interested in basketball likes Coca-cola and hamburgers desperately. Thus, it is unwarranted that the next generation who participate the “fitness for life” program is surely the potential customers of the company.

To sum up, the argument is not sound as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, the author has to provide more clear evidence that there are causal relationships between the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing and the concern of leading healthy lives. To make it more convincing, the author also has to prove that people who participate in 'fitness for life' program would also be interested in health food.

文章的论证过程和语言都有提高的空间。

我的思路
1 不能说明本地人都喜欢过健康生活。运动服的销量可能由于当地是一个较大的运动服批发市场或运动服有名，外地人慕名而来。俱乐部成员多可能因为其他原因，举重训练健美操班，可能为了参加比赛。
2 即使喜欢健康生活，未必对我们的产品偏好。已有的俱乐部和服装品牌可能会占很大的市场比例。题目中只说明运动服和健康俱乐部例火爆，未说明我们的产品是什么，如我们销售保健药品、健康睡眠产品。
3 学生们的健康计划未必会增加我们的销量。强调锻炼，未必买产品。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT137 - The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.

"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."

WORDS: 554          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2008/10/9

In this argument, the author claims that the Mason City need to improve the publicly owned lands along the Mason River, because after the river is cleaned up, more and more people will use the river for recreational activities. Close scrutiny shows that the evidences lend little support to the conclusion. 文中未提清理干净，是否推理不当？

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the residents of Mason City need to use Mason River for recreation. In this argument, the author cites that residents of Mason City are fond of water sports. If it is true, there must be many good places in Mason City for swimming, fishing, and boating. The gyms in this city must all have swimming pools because swimming is popular. There maybe several parks in the city where people can go for fishing or boating. If not, how can the residents consistently rank water sports as their favorite? For that matter, people will not eager to use Mason River as another place for water sports. Therefore, it is not necessary to improve the public lands along the river. 城中还有其他玩水设施，未必增加M河的使用

What is more, the author fails to consider other possible reasons for the seldom using of Mason River. No evidence shows that the quality of the water is the most important reason which prevent people to use Mason River for recreation. It is entirely possible that Mason River is too terrantial to be used for swimming or boating regardless how clean the water it is. Or perhaps there is a chemical factory nearby the river so that eating fish in the river is not healthy. The location of Mason River is also important, is it near the residential area? Without ruling out other possible reasons, the author can not convince me that residents will go to Mason River for recreation after the water is cleaned up. M河使用较少的其他原因

The author also unfairly assumes that the Mason River will be definitely cleaned up. Although the agency has announced plans to clean up Mason River, it can not guarantee that the plans will be effective. Announcement is one thing, operation the cleaning plan is anoher thing. No evidence shows that the agency is responsible enough. If the agency is responsible and efficient, why there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river? If they keep the quality of the water well, there would be no need to clean up it. It would be better to disscuss the budget after the river is truely cleaned up. 计划未必能实现

Even if we accept all the assumptions, it does not necessarily means the Mason City council need to add budget for improvements to the public lands along the river. Nothing is mentioned the condition of the public lands, and we can not conclude that the lands can not meet residents needs. Does people need to use the public lands when they do water sports? In addtion, increasing budget will add the tax of residents, does that worth the cost? 未必需要扩大公用土地

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To substantiate it, the author need to do some detailed suverys about why people seldom use Mason River for water sports, and cite more evidence show that the agency will clean up the river. Furthermore, more datas are needed in order to bolster the plan for improving the public lands along the river.

文章中规中矩，仍有较大提升空间。推理有待加强。

我的思路：
1不从事水上活动可能由于其他原因。不安全，其他新兴娱乐设施。
2新计划不一定能净化水域，没有给出详细计划。
3提高公有土地？可能需要保留。扩展海岸线，增加相应娱乐设施。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

看了20篇Argument，脑子已经有些糊了。不能说出具体的标准，只有一种感觉，凭感觉大概知道哪些文章不错，哪些一般，哪些逻辑严密、哪些语言有功底。这就是所谓的经验吗？

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

WORDS: 506          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-9-15 20:52:58

The author suggests that in order to prevent colds and reduce the rate of absenteeism we should recommend the daily use of lchthaid, which is derived from fish oil. It may seems reasonable on the surface, however, with further scrutiny, I find several faults in this argument. 开头简洁

First of all, the author unfairly associates the high consumption of fish to the low rate of visit to the doctor as result of colds. It is entirely possible that the people in EM are all in good health； accordingly, they seldom catch colds. Or perhaps the doctors' fees are so high in EM that few people can afford to visit doctors when they catch colds. Even assuming the people in EM seldom catch colds, the author also fails to indicate if there are other healthy foods or life-styles of residents in EM accounting for their good health. Without providing sufficient information of the health conditions of residents in EM, the author cannot make me believe high fish consumption contributes to the reducing of colds.  逻辑清晰，推理较好

Secondly, the author assumes that those who are absent from school and work are really because of colds. As we know, some of the absenteeism are is just the result of laziness instead of catching colds, which is just an excuse for their absenteeism. Or perhaps workers and students have some personal reasons which they don't like to make them public. Unless the author could ensure actual cold rates in the whole absenteeism, it is unwarranted for him to reach this conclusion. Additionally, the author doesn't indicate that it is sufficient to reduce absenteeism through the declination of colds.

Thirdly, even assuming that high consumption of fish could reducing colds and the colds are the main factor contributing to the absenteeism, the author also fails to indicate that lchthaid is the useful ingredient of the fish which contributing to the declination of the rate of colds. Without the results of some scientific experiment, the author cannot make it clear that it is lchthaid or other ingredients in fish that play an important role in reducing colds. The less important the lchthaid is , the less convincible of the author's claim about the function of lchthaid. 首句的让步有些冗余，须精简。展开有些不充分

Finally, the author also overlooks other solutions to reduce the rate of absenteeism. For the purpose of decreasing absenteeism, the factories could make the job more profitable and schools could make the study more attractive to students. To build up the body of workers and students, it is also alternative for the government to subsidize some public exercise facilities and promote citizens to exercise frequently.

All in all, this argument does have some merits but is not flawless. For the purpose of better supporting his suggestion, the author needs to provide sufficient information to indicate the it is the high fish consumption contributing to the low rates of colds and in-depth investigation about why workers and students are absent. To better convine me, the author also needs to conduct some experiments to illustrate that lchthaid is the useful ingredients of fish.

文章前半部分语言的控制和推理较好，后半部分还有提升的空间。

我的思路
1 吃鱼未必是EM感冒少的原因。可能多数人感冒不看医生。即使感冒的人都看医生，也可能由于其他因素，气候，水质，空气等。
2 即使吃鱼可以预防，吃I未必可以预防。
3 吃I未必能减少旷工，旷工还有其他原因，感冒可能是借口。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

Argument 17

By citing that EZ ,which will have more trucks than ABC, collects trash twice per week more than ABC' once and 80 percent of the respondents claimed they were satisfied with EZ, the author wants to convince us that Walnut Grove(WG) town should continue using EZ as their trash disposer. However, after taking a thoroughly/thorough examination, the argument is weakened/weak in several points. 段首句的细节引用可以改为By citing several evidences, the author

On the whole, the author implies us that EZ's performance merits the 500 dollar's surcharge. This is what the entire argument is based on. Yet ,being lacking in more detailed information, the assumption or implication is soundless. 开头有些冗余，简练说明段落中心即可 The author implies us that if ABC is to collect twice per week,ABC will charge $4000 while EZ 'only' charges $2500.So ,EZ is obviously deserved to choose.However,the arguer fails to provide the details about the 2 company's service. 重复题目，与上文意义一样，可精简 It’s quite possible that ABC uses a more advanced and environmentally/environmental harmless technique to deal with the trash while EZ just burn or bury it. Thus considering the saved expenditure in environmental protection, ABC may be a much smarter choice.So, without supplying more details about the 2 company's services, the assumption is groundless. 该句又一次重复，应精简

Secondly, ignoring other possible alternatives/factors, the author simply equates more trucks with better performance. Yet no evidence has shown that EZ will use these additionally ordered trucks to improve its performance in WG.Further more, it’s equally possible that these trucks will be used to expand EZ's service to other towns or cities. If that's the case, these trucks are meaningless to WG.Also, if 20 trucks are enough for the collection in WG, there’s no reason to claim more trucks will have better performance than ABC. Without ruling out these possibilitis, the claim is weakened.

Finally, the survey results actually contribute little in proving EZ is a better choice even when EZ charges 500 dollars more. Even though 80% respondents feel satisfied with EZ, we still can't say EZ will do better than ABC .For 10 years, people in WG have already been used to EZ being their trash disposer.To take a step further, they actually have no idea about whether other company's performance will be better or not. Maybe when WG choose ABC, more respondents will admit they are satisfied. Even if ABC has fewer supporters, is EZ’s performance worthy of the extra $500 ? It still needs to be evaluated statistically. So, the mere fact that the survey provides does nothing in bolstering the argument.

For the reasons above,the argument is not strongly surpported.In order to convince us WG town should continue using EZ, the author should provide more details and statistics for us to evaluate the claim all-sidedly.

文章没有附录题目，只能直接阅读。格式使用齐头式时，段首不需要空两格。文中错误较多，语言重复较多。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT101 - The following appearedin a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals.

"In a recent study, subjects who ate soy beans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."

WORDS: 409          TIME: 00:29:13          DATE: 2008-3-27 22:05:21

In this memo, the president suggests that in order to increase the profits of company and improve the health of customers, it is necessary to fortify WO cereal with soy protein. At first glance, president's suggestion seems appealing; however close scrutiny revealsthat there are some logical fallacies in the memo that undermines itscredibility.

The threshold problem with this memo lies in that author fails to provide detailed information  about the study such as the total number of subjects in the study. Lacking this information makes his conclusion becomeless statistical reliable. 展开不充分

Even if the study is statistical reliable,the president's suggestion still seems unsound for the simple reason he fails to offer direct evidence that the soy beas is low in cholesterol. Thus, it is entirely other issues such as less eating eggs and red meat that contribute the low in cholesterol. Without ruling out this possibility, author cannot convinceme that eating soybeans would lower cholesterol.

Even if the soybeans do have the functionof reducing cholesterol level, it has no indication that consumers would prefer company's product that mixes it with WO cereal. Perhaps such mixing would result the taste of the product become so bad consumers even those who are most concerned about health are not able to accept its taste. If this is the case,such product will become complete failure in the market. Therefore, failing to accounting this possibility, author cannot make his claim that the product will be appealing to consumers who are concerned their health persuasive.  让步

Finally, even if such product can be accepted by consumers, author's conclusion that it is capable of increasing company's profits is still logical unsound. A common sense informs that the profit of certain product is dependent on its cost and sales. Although this product could gain a good sale in market, its cost is also rising since some soy protein is added to the product.And the president fails to exclude the possibility that the increase in costreaches such a high level that undermines its profits. It this is the truth,president's suggestion become completely unwarranted.  让步，尽量避免二次让步

In sum, this argument is not well-supportedas it stands. To bolster it , president should offer concrete evidence that the product that mixes cereal and soy protein will be good for consumers' health,and this product will be accepted by consumers. Moreover, company should carryout a survey among potential consumers before they make such a decision.

文中单词间的空格省略较多，多少会影响阅读。第二段和第三段可以合并，例子可以更加丰富。后半部分中规中矩。

我的思路
1 胆固醇水平低未必由于吃大豆，可能由于其他原因。两组调查者身体差异，健康、体质差，苗条、肥胖，其他饮食习惯，少吃红肉、鸡蛋等。
2 即使吃大豆可以降低，未必吃我们的新产品可以。豆中的其他成分。
3 新产品未必受欢迎。可能口味会改变，添加豆蛋白后价格可能上升，购买人数可能下降。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

In this newsletter, the author recommends that Old Dairy (OD) stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not to purchase stock in OD. To justify this recommendation, the author points out that people want to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, according to a recent survey, and that low fat products are abound in many food stores. The author also points out that many food products currently marketed by OD are high in fat and cholesterol. Careful scrutiny of these evidences, however, reveals that this recommendation is unconvincing in several respects.

A threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. First, we are informed nothing with respects to the way the poll was conducted and how well the respondents represented the public opinions. Secondly, the author provides no evidence that the number of the respondents is statistically significant. Thirdly, it is highly possible that people inclined to caring their intake were more willing to repond to the survey than were other people. If this is the case, the over 80 percent respondse rate is not persuasive.

Even assuming the result of survey is reliable, the author's reasoning that OD's will no doubt decrease is unjustifiable. First, people's concerns about their intake of foods and their eating of these foods is two things. Next, although the author points out that low fat products abound in many food stores, it is possible that a majority of popular foods remain the kind of OD's products. 需要再说明，逻辑有跳跃Thus, without ruling out this possibility, the author cannot conclude that the profits of OD will no doubt decrease.

Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to another flaw appearing in this argument: the author draws a hasty conclusion, merely based on these facts cited in the argument, that OD stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not to purchase stock in OD. Perhaps, the sales of foods containing fats and cholesterol are not the major sources of OD's revenues. For that matter, after perceiving this trends, perhaps OD would take effective measures to change their products in the near future in order to gain a greater profits. In short, absent additional information concerning these scenarios, I find the author's recommendation is unconvincing.

To sum up, tha author fails to provide key evidence needed to support the recommendation. To bolster that suggestion the author must show that the survey is statistically reliable, To better assess the suggestion the author must also show that the foods containing fats and cholesterol are to a great extent lose their market. Also useful would be any information concerning whether OD has other major sources of profits and whether OD will take measures to deal with the trend.

文章对语言的控制较好，思路清晰，论证还可以更充分的展开

我的思路：
1 未说明调查总人数，可能仅10人回复。10人可能obesity，heart diseases，diabetes
2 未必销量下降。有愿望并不一定买低脂食品。吸烟危害健康，但仍有很多人买烟。口味独特，忠实顾客。
3 店里低脂食物多可能因为滞销。
3 未必不值得投资。该公司还有其他产业，或已经意识到问题在改进。决定投资与否是一件复杂的事情。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

ARGUMENT46 - Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.


The arguer drew two conclusions above. First, there may be grizzly bears in Labrador. Second, the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear. The reason he provided is that there are two different kinds of bears in the Innu language and the Innu ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. There are logical errors in the arguer's deducing, which makes his assertions are unreliable.

For one thing, the main reason the arguer brought forward are the language and legends. 该句逻辑不太严密 The problem is that whether the research of language is useful, or can there be any misunderstanding to the language. Because we don't know whether or not the language research was made by authorities or some one not so professional, we can not firm rely on this search result. 例子有些牵强 Maybe there are some words’ meaning just like grizzly bear, or the description of some other kinds of bears which is similar to grizzly lead the arguer mistaken it as grizzly bears. The legends are neither can be used as evidence. That is only something without evidences support. The arguer seemed to deduce a conclusion with things need warranted, made a serious logical mistake.

Even though there may be grizzly lived in Labrador, no evidence show that the explorer's account is true, let alone to accurately identify the bear. For one thing need to be investigated is whether he really startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear? We must make sure that there were not other reasons that may him to tell a lie. For another, is the report reliable? For it was happened in nineteenth-century, there may be some mistakes in the report which is not so accurate as our contemporary. Another case may be that the explorer had mistaken a bear just be like to the grizzly bear as the grizzly bear.

From analyzed above, we can see that the arguer’s assertions are not persuasive. He should offer more statistic evidence or study reports to give sufficient support to his conclusion, such as studies of the number of grizzly bears or researches did by authorities.

文章的字数有待提高。第二段的推理有些不太严密。对语言的控制能力还有提升空间。

我的思路
1 Innu人语言和传说不能作为证明。另一种熊可能不是灰熊，例如白熊、棕熊或其他熊。传说不能作为科学的证明，只能作为辅助。
2 即使语言和传说为真，也不能灰熊曾在L省。未说明是在L省发现的，可能是Innu人的祖先在西部省打猎、游牧时发现的。
3 Innu人的证据不能证明19世纪探索者的记录为真实的、详细的。两者没有必然联系。惊愕和逃命的瞬间只能大致有印象，不能仔细观察和精确记录。

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

WORDS: 448          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-2-28 16:08:20

In this argument , the author advises that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. To substantiate his point, he cites a study consists of two group of people, the people who are given antibiotics recover more quick than other group. At first glance ,this argument seems reasonable, but further inspection shows it suffers from many logical flaws. 第二句繁琐，而且逻辑不严密，可以改为 To substantiate his point, he cites preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients.
   
First and foremost, the study cited in the argument is lack of credibility. Firstly, the study provides insufficient information about two group people's age , sex and physical condition. Without these information, we may think that the first group is consist of people who are young and more healthier than the those in second group. On the contrary, the people in second group may be some old people who have a poor health condition and recovery speed. In this case, the study is invalid to make a comparison. Secondly, the doctor in the two groups are different. Common sense tells us  that the doctor specialized in sports medicine will do better in curing the muscle strain compared with a general physician. Therefore, there is a high possibility that the first group's shorter recuperation time is result form the doctor's better treatment in first group not the function of antibiotics.   该段展开很好，可以再加一句总结性的结束语，以完整结构

Second, the arguer provides no information of the function of sugar pills in the treatment of second group. It's entirely possible that the sugar pill will do some harm in people's recovery. Maybe it is the sugar pill that causes the second group people recuperating slower than group one. Without ruling out this possibility, the arguer can not convince me that the antibiotics will reduce people's recuperation time.  

Even if antibiotics could reduce patients' recuperation time, the arguer unfairly assume that all patients must take antibiotics as part of their treatment. Firstly, the arguer provide no evidence that patients who suffered from muscle strain is likely to get secondary infections. There is a good chance that most of patients suffered from muscle strain don't get secondary infections, therefore using antibiotics will have little effects. Secondly, the side-effect of antibiotics should also be take into patients' consideration. If the antibiotics have many side effects such as damaging one's immune system, nausea, 恶心 vomiting,呕吐 choosing use antibiotics only to reduce recuperation time is not a wise decision.  

To sum up, this argument relies on an doubtful study, which renders it unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it , the arguer should provide more details of the function of sugar pill and consider the doctor's effect in the comparison. To better improve it, the arguer should also investigate whether the antibiotics have some side effects.

文章整体还行。逻辑严密、思路清晰方面还可以再提升。

我的思路：
1 两组病人的实验不能证明二次受伤使得严重肌肉拉伤难以恢复的假设。实验中未提到二次受伤。
2 实验不能证明抗生素对肌肉拉伤的治疗效果。实验结果可能由于医生的差别。题目未说两组实验的其他因素相同。两组病人的严重情况，治疗方案的差异，医疗设备的差异等。糖丸是否影响恢复？
3 严重肌肉拉伸不一定能推广到所有肌肉拉伸。轻度肌肉拉伸可能不需要使用抗生素。毕竟有副作用，而且较贵。

Argument需要注意论证严密和对语言的控制。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

ARGUMENT150 - The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout 鳄鱼 into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."


字数：390          用时：0:30:00          日期：2008-2-28

In this argument, the author claims that the global pollution of water and air is the reason for the decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide. The author cites the results of two studies, and exclude another possible reason to ensure us of its rationality. However, a close scrutiny of the supporting evidences reveals that this argument suffers from several flaws, which render it unpersuasive.

In the first place, the argument is based on the assumption that the numbers of amphibians are declining In the park. However, the author fails to provide any persuasive evidence. Though the author cites the results of two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California, the data of the two studies cannot serve to substantiate his/her assumption. The author does not provide us with any information about the process of the survey. So we cannot make it sure that whether the situation observed by the survey conductor can reflect the true situation of the park. It is quite possible that some of the amphibians in the park has changed their habitats, so the observers have not find them in 1922. Or perhaps the two study had used different method, so it is meaningless to compare the result of them. Any of these scenarios, if true, may serves to undermine the assumption. 两栖动物未必在公园下降

In the second place, the argument is based on the assumption that the numbers of amphibians are declining world widely. However, the author fails to provide us with any information to prove it, such as statistic results of worldwide surveys or worldwide phenomenon which can
reflect the trend. Even assuming that amphibians are declining in the park, the situation in a park cannot represent the situation worldwide. It is quite possible that the decline only happens in Yosemite National Park, and the numbers of amphibians in other places have note declined or even increased. If the author cannot exclude this possibility, he/she cannot make us to believe that the numbers of amphibians is declining world widely. 两栖动物未必在全球下降

In the third place, by exclude the possibility that the decline of the amphibians is caused by the introduction of trout, the author implies that there is no other possibilities. However, there is no evidence to support this assertion. It is quite possible that though the introduction of amphibians is not the reason, the declining of the numbers of amphibians is caused by other reasons, rather than pollution of water and air. For example, perhaps it is the excessive hunting that has caused the decline. Or perhaps the rising global temperature should be blame. If the author cannot exclude these and other possibilities, he/she cannot persuasive us that the pollution is the reason.

In sum, the argument suffers from several flaws which render it logically unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, further investigation and analysis should are needed. If so, it will be more thorough and adequate.

文章论证展开充分。段落中心句很有特点，说明假设，否定假设。若能替换段落开头的in the second place 效果将会更好

引用评论中的话
论证推理上的逻辑问题比质疑论据本身的真实可靠更符合ETS的希望。而你用了很大力气——两个段落来攻击真实与否，对这个公园和世界范围视为同一的问题置之不理，个人感觉有一点避重就轻的感觉。 “全球两栖动物减少这一事实，说明全球水和空气被污染了！”这个应该是论证的重点。

我的思路
1 仅用一个公园内两栖动物的减少不能说明全球两栖动物的减少。其他地区可能增加。公园两栖动物的品种有限。
2 全球两栖动物数量减少不能说明全球水和大气的污染。过渡捕捞、气候变暖。
3 公园内两栖动物的减少可能由于其他原因。饲养方式、当地气候变化。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

某个角落好，一起加油：） 102# 某个角落

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Argument 38

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."


The newsletter recommends that a nutritional supplement calling Ichthaid derived from fish oil is a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. As discussed below, however, the argument suffers from several critical flaws and is therefore mot well reasoned.

First of all, the arguert fails to convince me that colds could be prevented by eating a substantial number of fish, for the reason that there are some other alternative explanations. Perhaps people in East Meria are all fond of sports and do exercise regularly. Or perhaps they seldom go to see the doctor just because of the nice climate, the well-rounded medical treatment system as well as the light pressure from work. Moreover, perhaps another substance is also in high consumption in their daily life and does work. 该句有些费解 Owing to the various possibilities mentioned above, the conclusion is far from being guaranteed.

In addtion, the author assumes that Ichthaid which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil can help prevent colds and lower absenteeism. However, this is not necessarily the case. Even if eating fish can prevent colds, it has not been provided that Ichthaid is/contains the workable element. In other words, maybe another subject can still do the same thing. In addition, even though it is Ichthaid that can prevent colds, it cannot be warranted that it is useful to everybody. Therefore, there is not enough evidence to demonstrate that Ichthaid can help people keep away from colds. 该段论证不太严密

Further more, it cannot be simply assumed that colds are the reason most frequently for absences from school and work. Given that cold is one reason, it is obviously that the argument neglects the other factors which can also result in the absence, such as the bad weather and the disorderly 混乱的 traffic. Besides, they may mainly account for the absence from school and work. Accordingly, the conclusion remains to be dubious.

Last but not least, the arguer does not take into account the inherent differences between the two places. Admitting that colds could be prevented by eating a substantial number of fish, we cannot assume that this same scenario will work in West Meria. There are a couple of variables that can contribute to the case in East Meria, such as the climate, the lifestyle and some other aspects. Therefore, it is unfair to make this conclusion.

In sum, this argument has been weakened by the flaws mentioned above. More evidence should be provided to warrant that eating Ichthaid can be a way to prevent colds and lower adsenteeism. In order to strengthen the argument, more detailed and scientific studies should be implemented to show that Ichthaid really has a causal link to colds prevention and the reducing of absence from school and work.

文章论证严密性和对语言的控制还有提升空间。

我的思路
1 吃鱼未必是EM感冒少的原因。可能多数人感冒不看医生。即使感冒的人都看医生，也可能由于其他因素，气候，水质，空气等。
2 即使吃鱼可以预防，吃I未必可以预防。
3 吃I未必能减少旷工，旷工还有其他原因，感冒可能是借口。

ieyangj08UID：2743219

TOPIC: ARGUMENT162 - A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy 大豆 per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.

WORDS: 459         TIME: 0:30:00


The author recommends that North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression. At first glance, the argument appears to be somehow appealing. However, as discuss below, the author suffer from several critical flaws and therefore is unpersuasive.

To begin with, the author claims that North Americans suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than Asians. However, we do not know the exact number of the patients either/neither on the continent of North America or/nor the patients on the continent of Asia. The single statistic is in sufficient to draw any general conclusion that North Americans are easier to suffer from chronic fatigue and chronic depression. For example, may be the study just investigates some North Americans from big cities such as New York, Chicago, Los Angels, Houston and so on. Common sense and experience tell us that these people may easy suffer from chronic fatigue and chronic depression because their stress is hard. To support the conclusion, the author should provide more information. 调查有效性

In addiction, even North Americans are easier to suffer form chronic fatigue and chronic depression, the assumption that eat 20 grams of soy per day can prevent fatigue and depression is open to doubt. The author fails to establish a causal relationship between soy and fatigue and depression. There are many other facts that lend to the result. For example, the average temperature of Asia is higher than the average temperature of North America, the different in climate may also cause the difference. Or perhaps North Americans prefer hamburger, coke, fried chicken, may be it can also leads to the result of the study. 亚洲慢性疲劳压力小的其他原因，例子详实

Last but not the least, although soy can helps Asians to prevent from fatigue and depression, the conclusion that North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression lacks credibility. As we know, the body between Asians and North Americans is quite different. May be soy just effects Asians. On the other hand, if North Americans take soy frequently, it may do harm to the body. Without eliminating this possibility, the author can not rely on the study to conclude that eating soy on a regular basis is a way to prevent fatigue and depression. 未必对北美人有效

In conclusion, the author fail to adequately support the recommendation that North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide more information that North Americans are easier to suffer from chronic fatigue and chronic depression than Asians. To assess the conclusion, I would need more information that soy can really effects North Americans.

文章中心句很有特点，过渡词、条件、结论。例子详实

我的思路
1 调查未必有效，未说明具体人数和调查范围。
2 亚洲人疲劳和压力较少未必是由于吃大豆。工作压力小、生活方式健康等。
3 即使吃大豆的确帮助亚洲人，未必帮助北美人。体质差异、气候差异。
4 大豆能预防慢性疲劳和压力，未必能预防所有疲劳和压力。