Argument118 我的第一篇Argument

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ARGUMENT118 - The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.

"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City, the traditional location of our yearly winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be more crowded. These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at the conference. We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular with winter tourists."

In this argument,the author suggests moving the conference to another city with less tourists.To support his suggestion,he provides the evidence that the temperature next winter will be higher than average in Sun City,which will lead to an increase in the tourist number.Then the problems of hotel and transportation will be difficult to tackle.At the same time,the public places there will be crowded than ever.All above could reduce the conference's attendence.The author's statement seems plausible and reasonable.There, however, still exists a series of flaws.
First,the areguer's suggestion is based on an unsubstantiated assumption that the temperature next winter is going rise as predicted.The aruther fails to present any information about the prediction. We have no idea that who is in charge of this prediction , how the prediction is made,and what data and clues the predictor has. Without those information, we cannot judge whether the forecast is trustworthy anyway.
second, the arguer assumes another unwarranted assumption that the number of tourists to Sun City next winter will actually increase. Even though the Sun City is famous for its beautiful beaches and good weather,a warmer temperature is not neccessarily responsible for an increase of tourists. The auther provides no evidence that more people are planning to visit the Sun City next winter other than other places which are not suitable for travelling in cold winter days but now are a good choice due to a higher tempertature. The auther fails to convince us the causal relationship between the higher tempertature and the increased number of tourists.
Third,provided that more people are going to spend their vacation in Sun City, the housing and transportation might not be a big obstacle for us since we have held the conference there for several times. We must have a good relationship with the hotel and transportation company we are familiar with. It's often easier to settle the problems in a familiar place than in a totaly and utterly strange one. Moreover, the author does not provide the evidence that other places are less crowded and easier to book a room and arrange for transportation.
Last but not the least, the auther fails to convince us the fact that difficulties of reservation and transportation will , of course, reduce the attendance. people usually make the decision whether or not to attend a conference in accordace with the its importance instead of other factors. They are likely to attend a conference if it means a lot to them, even though there might be a little troubes in accomodation and transportation.
To sum up, the author should collect more information about the credulity and accuracy of the prediction and how it affects the number of tourists in Sun City and the accomodation and transportation before any conclusions to be made. The authpor need to make a sufficient and efficient comprison betweem Sun City and other possible cities chosen. All factors should be taken into account in a decision making.

7月1日作文，这是我第一次写Argument，之前都在看提纲，所以还不太熟悉写作套路，用了近五十分钟，请各位G友能抽出时间帮忙修改~感激不尽~