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贴下我的ARGUMENT,请狠狠批。
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 429 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009-2-24 上午 12:52:42
In the argument,the author comes up with a conclusion that the sales of Whitlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.To reinforce the recommendation,the author cites a result of a recent survey,which infers video-game players prefer the games providing lifelike graphics and requiring the most up-to-date computers.The author also indicates that Whirlwind has just intoduced such games,along with an extensive advertising campaign directed at 10 to 25 -year-old people.Conceded that,a careful consideration of each of these elements,however,reveals that none of them lends sound and invulnerable support to the conclusion.
In the first place,the threshold logical deficiency of the editorial is that both the sample size and the information of the respondents are unkown.It is entirely possible that the samples only include a small amount,which would render the result meaningless.Moreover,if most of the respondents are just from a particular group,who have the preference for the games providing lifelike graphics ,then they are in lack of representiveness for the game players as a whole.Unless the surveyor sampled a sufficient number and did so randomly across the entire spectrum,the result is groundless.
In the second place,even if the survey is statistically reliable,the games with the feature metioned above will not surely achieve a good sale.The author fails to acknowledge other factors,including price,themes,exictment,ect,which might influence the players' choices for games.There is a good chance that players sacrifice the important feature for the other ones united together.Additonally,the games with lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers,however,it is possible to limit buyers to the players equipmented with these computers.Failing to accounting for these and other factors,it is unfair to conclude the games sales are likely to increase dramatically.
The last but not the least,the author falsely resets on the gratuitous assumption that the 10 to 20-year-old people are most likely to play video.However,no solid evidence is stated to substantiate it.If it is not the case,then the advertising campaign will fail to target its aim unfortunately.Even assuming the fact is exactly what the author infers,this group of players may lack the abitlity to afford the costs,which will also result in the advertising campaign less likely to succeed.Thus the author’s conclusion would be seriously undermined.
To sum up,the assertion relies on unsubstantiated assumption and questionable evidence,giving rise to it unpersuasive as it stands.The author should provide more convincing investigations with respect to game players' preference and take into account other factors,which may affect the sales.Moveover,the evidence that 10 to 20-year-old people are most likely to play video is needed as well.Otherwise , the editorial cannot make any sound and logical recommedation whatsoever. |
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