【1010G精英组】ISSUR&ARGU 习作——by Group Choice

toywangUID: 2700880

argu 203  time 1:00   这是我写过最长的argu 了529个字，太多了，收不住，大家改的时候看到废话酒啊删吧~~

1
S镇
2天 ，M镇
6天  这三点 反驳：1 治疗的病都是开药就可以回去的，不用长住
2
cure rate
twice
3
人均分配的医务人员多
反驳
2 /3 这个twice的不具有可比性，可能是基数就小，来看病的人少 而且都是 感冒发烧这种病，
4
投诉少

举例，大病校医院买有条件治疗，去了大医院，就算有条件也不是说就能包治百病的啊，所一说不一定的~~~因而有投诉也是正常的
1+2+3+4===小型 非盈利医院 比   更好哦啊
反驳： 1前四点 的请款有很多种

2即使是这样，也局限在SM 两地，这个调查不能够代表 所有的



According to the feature story appeared in the newspaper, the comparative between the two different kinds hospital do not rational and have same premises. Facing with the data such as cure rate and employee of per patient, I have doubts about the basic number and the results of these indexes. In addition, the conclusion drawn only after the compare by two places is not acceptable. So now let’s analysis the flaws one by one and find the solutions in correspondence.

First problem is that the author regards the length of patient’s day is related to the quality of hospital. Is that right? We can think about our daily lives experiences and prove it was not right. When we are in sick such as cough and headache, we may go to hospital and doctors will give medicine to us and enjoin us to have a rest at home. Does this kind of sickness shall we stay in hospital? Even when we need to have IV which waste one or two days in hospital, does that connected with the quality of hospital? What’s more to say is more day stay in hospital means that the patients need to cure in hospital and much more care by doctors and nurses. This situation does not mean a higher quality but indicate that patients are serious illness.

Second problem is the data of the cure rate and the few compliant cannot directly draw the conclusion with different basic number and different hardness to cure the illness. The people who go to the non-profit small hospital may just catch a cold or cough and these sicknesses are easy to cure. In contrast, the patient we consult doctors in for-profit hospital may have heart disease or cancer and so on, and these diseases are hard to cure even with advanced technology. This assumption is also useful to analysis the phenomenon of few compliant, people who have been cured will not have any complain, however, the family member of some uncured patients will complain about doctors or hospital even though they have done their best.

After the resolve of the problems exist in the compare, the conclusion that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals is enlarge the individual case to an extensiveness phenomenon. Dose the two hospitals can present all these kinds of hospital around? Of course not, the author does lack the consideration of the local conditions. For example, in the town of Saluda government may have more investment on the public medical treatment and the town of Megaville pay more attention to the other field. The problem made by author is lack of enough examples to persuade readers.

In the end, what I have discussed above only want to address some flaws and when the author want to get a real conclusion he or she may have a survey around the nation. And the survey needs to contain many other index such as the level to cure illness and the patients they receive per year. Through this way, the conclusion will really help the people to choose hospital when they are get sick.

xingfuhbjUID: 2769976

第十七次作业   ARGUMENT 203
TIME:1hour
WORDS:498
超过限时了…郁闷~写的感觉好烂的说~
Grounding on the fact that the average length of a patient's stay of a small and nonprofit hospital in Saluda is shorter than that of a large for-profit hospital in Megaville, and synthesizing that the small hospital achieved a higher cure rate with a fewer complaints, the arguer deduce that treatment in all smaller, nonprofit hospitals are more economical and of better quality comparing the larger ones. However, such an assertion required further investigation considering to the following logic flaws.

First and foremost, differences between the average lengths of a patient’s stay in the two hospitals have little indication of their quality, so does the cure rate.
It is quite a possibility that people are inclined to go to the smaller hospital when they have some ailments, while they always turn to the lager one if they are severely ill. For example, when you just catch a cold, you will definitely feel no need to drive to the large hospital for such a little disease, and then you went to the smaller one instead. With fewer medicines and even no stay in hospital, you recovered. But when you broke your leg, you feel that you can’t rely on the Saluda hospital, and you go to the Megaville hospital and stay more than half a month in it. So in this circumstance, patients are more likely to stay longer in larger hospital, and contribute to the lower cure rate of the for-profit hospital.

Second, having more employees per patient doesn’t equal a higher quality, and on the contrary, such condition may just reveal the organizational efficiency thus the uneconomic management of the Saluda hospital. The hospital in Megaville may operate under an effective and efficient and manageable mode, and the amount of the employees per patient has been carefully calculated, which can help its faculty to achieve their most effectiveness while the hospital in Saluda failed to manage it. What’s more, with no detail figure of two hospitals’ expenditure, we have no reference to attest that the hospital in Saluda is more economic.

Last but not the least, the arguer is too hastily to get his assertion by only considering the contrast of two hospitals. However, more contrasts should be taken into account. For instance, Mendel produced his path-breaking paper-- law of inheritance not by just observing two or hundreds of peas for one year, but through over 8 years’ observation and note keeping of millions of even thousand of peas. Let’s take another example. Statisticians throw one coin over ten thousand times just to verify the fact that roughly half will come up heads and half tails. So it is not reasonable for the arguer to extend the results of two hospitals’ contrast to all hospitals.

In sum, with an unsound logic, the arguer fails to support his assertion. Considering all authentic arguments are based on scientific figures and facts, such an assertion would be more favorable if the arguer provided more details information or do more researches.

cynthia313UID: 2765794

issue51 by yuanlinqing 修改 by Cynthia
TOPIC: ISSUE51 - "Education will be truly effective only when it is specifically designed to meet the individual needs and interests of each student."
WORDS: 703
TIME: 01:00:00
DATE: 2010-5-16 12:05:59

As education is aim to help student(students) set up moral and ethical standards as well as academic and professional knowledge, the effectiveness of education should be measured by whether it can help students to achieve such aim of education. Since it is widely acknowledge(d) that social resource(我查的牛津高阶：resource是可数名词，这该用复数） as well as education resource
is limited, the combination of universally designed education, which requires the students to learn the same thing, and specially designed education is effective.



Since a lot of students regarded(regard) professional goal as the main aim of education, education which focuses on personal needs can be effective because individual skills can be fully improved. individuals are diverse, so are their weak points and strong points. Some people may lack of communication skills while some others needs(need) special training in computer skills. Thus, a specially designed education system will perfectly strengthen their weaken point(s). When taking individual(s')
professional choices into consideration, different professional goals entail different education. For instance, the education a lawyer receives has little in common with the education a doctor receives, in which case(我觉得这换个表因果的连词比较好）
specially designed education is necessary for students.

However, specially designed education, even though it is effective when considering the professional goal, is not effective at all when it comes to establishing moral and ethical standards as well as the academic goal. Since moral and ethical standards, which is(are) greatly determined by the social value system, is of great importance, all the students, even if some of them are not interested in it, have to establish moral and ethical standards which are not controvert to the social one. (没懂这个从句想表达什么意思？……看到后面的论述终于看懂了=。=）Otherwise, they can not adopt(adapt) themselves to the society because their value system is so different from the social one that what the society values are what they pay no attention to. Thus, a specially designed education can do little help, if any, for students to establish moral and ethical standards which accord with that of the society. （感觉这段都在说如果学生没有学Moral standards of the society会有什么危害，但是没有论述 specially designed education不能教学生这些东西）Moreover, when we take the academic goal into account, specially designed education suffers from the innate deficiency of paying attention to what they are interested in while ignoring what is pivot but they fail to recognize. Academic progress entails students to have a comprehensive view of the whole field which specially designed education fails to achieve, therefore, judging the importance of academic knowledge by personal interests（没有Judging the importance啊？只是直接选自己喜欢的学，有可能学生知道自己的选择的重要性啊）
is not beneficial for the student to make academic progress. Thus, it is not up to the students' personal interest(s) or needs to decide whether something should be learn(learnt) or not, which can reveal the ineffectiveness of specially designed education when we comes to the academic goal. As a result, a specially designed education can be effective when we consider the professional goal, which does not exclude its ineffectiveness when it comes to the establishment of moral standards and the academic goal.

At last, when we speculate on the fact that social resource is always limited, specially designed education is at the cost of lots of social resource, which render it ineffective and calls for another education which meet the individual needs as well as the social and academic needs. As the establishment of students' moral and ethical standards is at the early phase of education, education in that phase is effective when it is designed to meet the social needs. Alike, when considering the academic goal which requires comprehensive knowledge is also at the early phase of education, education is effective when emphasizing on the academic needs in that phase. At last, as professional knowledge and skills are taught in the advanced phases, specially designed education is effective in these phases. Thus, the combination of universal education and specially designed education is effective.

In sum, as we divide the goal of education into three parts, the effectiveness of specially designed education is measured by whether it can be helpful to achieve those goals. However, specially designed education, even though it is effective in achieving the professional goal, is ineffective when it comes to the academic goals as well as the establishing of the moral standards, which calls for the combination of specially designed education and universally designed education. And this combination is effective when we take the limited resource of the society into account.

楼主把education的作用分成3个部分很出彩~就是建议在文章前面可以集中对这三个部分先下个定义，这样读者后来看上去不会那么迷惑。特别是academic knowledge and professional knowledge本身意义就比较容易混，老实说偶是看到最后才明白的，呵呵~~

壮丽的掉色，彩色版见附件

yuanlinqinggreUID: 2755904

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 590
TIME: 00:45:00
DATE: 2010-5-18 19:55:11

The author, basing on the inference that people are growing interested in growing their own vegetables， comes to his conclusion that Green thumb center can make a fortune by enlarging the variety of vegetable. However, the inference is unjustified when we meditate on the ratiocination of the argument. And its fallacies go as follow.

At the first place, the national study, to say nothing of whether it can be applied to consumers in the town, is little indication that people will certainly grow vegetables by their own. Lacking evidence of the dissatisfaction of the consumers, it is entirely possible that people are not satisfied with the vegetables but the quality of fresh vegetables is still within the toleration of consumers. Moreover, there are lots of pivot factors, such as their working time and lifestyle, which determine the consumers' decisions about growing vegetables themselves. After a day of hard working, people may be too tired to grow their vegetables. For that matter, lots of people, even though dissatisfied with the quality of the vegetables, may prefer some leisure activities rather than growing vegetables. Thus, the author, without more evidence about the consumers’ opinions about growing vegetables by their own, cannot come to his basis of this argument that people will prefer growing vegetables whatsoever.

What is more, the sales of gardening magazines at a specific news stand, without
is not a compelling evidence to corroborate the implication that people are becoming more and more interested in growing their vegetables. Since the author offers no information about the reason why people buy this magazine, it is just likely that some other factors, such as geographic factors of the news stands, rather than people's growing concern about growing vegetables leads to the high sales. Perhaps, there are myriads of people passing by the news stands, which may serve to the high sales. And the sales of the magazine may not representatives of all the news stands, which makes the sale record an ineffective one. Thus, the trend referred by the author, as the author fails to eliminate other possible reasons for the good sales, is unpersuasive as it stands.

Last but not least, the suggestion, even I concede that lots of people in the town will surely grow their own vegetables, still relies on the assumption that consumers will certainly prefer Green thumb gardening center, and they would like to buy diverse kinds of vegetables seeds. Yet, no evidence is provided in the argument, in which case it is not presumptuous to say that consumers may prefer other gardening centers, which provide low prices and alluring budget plans. Even assuming that a majority of consumers will prefer Green Thumb, the author unfairly assumes that people prefer a various kinds of seeds. However, the author fails to support this preference. For that matter, consumers may prefer buying only a narrow range of vegetables seeds while Green Thumb Center has enlarge the diversity of seeds at a high cost, in which case Green Thumb is far from profitable. As a result, I remain doubtful about the effectiveness of the suggestion until the author provides prominent evidence about the preference of consumers over gardening center as well as seeds.

In sum, the argument suffers from a deficiency of deducing without any convincing evidence, even though the article is lucid. The author, in order to strengthen his ratiocination, must cite more compelling evidence to suggest the peoples increasing interests in grow their own vegetables. And survey about the consumers' preference over the kind of seed is also needed.

cynthia313UID: 2765794

argue14 by Cynthia
TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 494
TIME: 00:39:54
DATE: 2010-5-18 11:06:26

Based on the result of a survey that the consumers were dissatisfied with the supermarkets' vegetables, and the fact that the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold well at the Village News stand three months in a row, the arguer concludes that consumers are more interested in growing vegetables themselves, and suggests that Green Thumb Gardening Center should enrich the variety of vegetable seeds stocked for gardeners to maximize the profits. However, this argument is unreasonable for several logical fallacies.

First of all, granted that the result of the survey that consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets is true, the arguer equals the dissatisfaction to interesting in growing vegetables themselves. There are other methods to deal with this problem rather than planting vegetables themselves. It is possible for consumers to buy fresh vegetables directly from local farmers instead of purchasing from supermarkets; it is equally possible for them to make efforts to suggest supermarkets for better vegetables. In sum, the dissatisfaction with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets does not indicate the consumers would grow their own vegetables.

Furthermore, the mere fact that the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold well only at a stand in three months does not mean this magazine is truly popular among local citizens. Perhaps, there might be only one stand for selling this magazine, thus the well selling at this stand can not indicate that this magazine is popular among local people. The arguer should provide more evidence to prove this garden magazine is truly popular among locals

Moreover, even if the gardening magazine Great Garden is really loved by local residents, the content of this magazine is still unknown from this argument, thus it is unreasonable for the arguer to assume that the readers of the gardening magazine would plant vegetables themselves. It is possible the content of the magazine is about planting flowers, the readers are just fond of growing other plants, such as flowers, trees, rather than vegetables. What's more, granted that the readers of the gardening magazine are truly fond of growing vegetables themselves, the feasibility of doing so is still questionable. Common sense tells us that not every individual has a garden for vegetable growing, even if the readers of the magazine are all willing to plant their own vegetables, how many of them would carry the plan out? Without this information, it is hard to say the expanding of vegetable seeds would bring about benefits.

In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing for the arguer unreasonably equals dissatisfaction of supermarkets' fresh vegetables to interesting in growing vegetables themselves. Additionally, the arguer fails to convince us that the gardening magazine Great Gardens is truly popular locally, which can indicate people are willing to grow their own vegetables. To better evaluate, we would have to know more information about the true willing of local people, and the relationship between the well sold magazine and the growing of vegetables personally.

yuanlinqinggreUID: 2755904

TOPIC: ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
WORDS: 642
TIME: 00:45:00
DATE: 2010-5-19 14:33:58

The manager, implying that the dropping profits results from the leadership of Pat, suggests that her resignation is necessary. Thereupon, he comes to his conclusion that in order to increase the company's profits, Rose, who is a president of a company which enjoys a increasing profits, should be appointed as the president even though the salary may be twice of the Pat's. Yet, unjustified inferences of the argument and the lack of comparison render the deduction unpersuasive as it stands.

Firstly, the apparent drop in the profits is little indication that Pat failed to makes his contribution to the company for the profits of the company, since the profits received depends on several factors, such as economy circumstances, customers' preference, which cannot be controlled by the president of the company. For that matter, it is entirely possible that the preference of consumers over the products the company provides has changed inexorably, which leads to the drop in the sales as well as in the profits. Or, the price of a pivot ingredient used to make the product has risen considerably for the lack of supply in the market, which serves to the rise in the cost and, thus, drop in the profits. Therefore, the manager, unless he cites convincing evidence that Pat is responsible for the decrease in the profits, cannot comes to the basis of his conclusion that Pat is not doing her job and her resignation is necessary.

Moreover, even I assume that the decreasing profits suffered by the Fancy Toy result from Pat's failure, the deduction is firmly based on the premise that Rose served to the augmentation in the Straight Jewelry's profits. Yet, no evidence is offered to demonstrate this significant assumption, in which case it is just as likely that some other factors, such as the condition of supply for the Jewelry, rather than the ability of Rose are attributable to the increasing profits. If that is the case, the lack of supply for the jewelry will certainly led to the increasing demand for the jewelry, which perfectly explains the increasing profits in Straight Jewelry. Thus, I remain doubtful about the Rose's ability to help the company increase their profits, until the author provides more compelling evidence.

Last but not the least, the claim, even I concede that Rose did lead to the increase in the profits, that Rose is effective when it comes to increasing the profits, is little indication that Rose will be as successful in the Fancy Toy as she was in the Straight Jewelry. As the author provides little detail about Rose, it is not presumptuous to assume that her wide spectrum of knowledge over jewelry, which is far from helpful when it comes to the Toy industry, is responsible for her previous success. And she knows little about toy industry, which may also serve to her failure to increase the profits. What is more, without comparison with other candidates, it is cursory to conclude that Rose is the best choice. Lacking more information about other candidates, it is possible that someone may also qualified for the post while the company only has to pay him half the salary that Pat has been receiving. The scenario, if true, would be reasonable to reveal that someone rather than Rose is the best choice. Thus, until the manager proves Rose’s ability to increase profits in toy industry as well as compares her with other candidates, I remain doubtful about the effectiveness of the suggestion.

In sum, the argument suffers from several unjustified assumptions and the deficiency of lacking comparison with other candidates, even though it is lucid. The manager can better assess his article if more evidence that Pat leads to the decrease in the profits while Rose contribute greatly to the increasing profits is added. And comparison between Rose and other candidates is also indispensable.

toywangUID: 2700880

Argu 14 time:50 min 不加审题时间 word 497

推翻

1 是否一个national’s survey can totally equal to the situation in a suburban town?

2 Assumption : people do not satisfied with the vegetable in supermarket must growing their own vegetable对超市蔬菜不满意不代表就要自己种啊

3 Great Garden 这本杂志是关于种菜的吗？买杂志的人为了种菜吗？能说明是么呢？完全不能说明他们要回来种菜而是要打理花园

4 即使是要买种子Center能够获利吗？

Given to the background of this argument, the result that Green Thumb Gardening Center will get profits by selling vegetable seeds has too many premise, however, these premises are not available. Firstly, the survey conducted in the national wide may not totally equal to the situation in this suburban town. In addition, the result is based on an unapproved assumption that consumers who dissatisfied with the quality of vegetable in supermarket must grow their own vegetable. Lastly, the sale out of Great Garden does not mean anything about the situation of growing vegetables.

Now let’s analysis the flaws made by the owner of this center.

To begin with, the misunderstanding of the survey is needs to correct. The survey conducted last month shows the average status in the whole nation, however, the number of people who do not pleased with the vegetable in this town may not as much as the overall data for different reasons. In one hand, as a shopping located in a suburban town, the logistics of fresh vegetables are more efficient or the farmer sent their vegetables directly to the supermarket. In this way, vegetables will not turn bad in the transport process and local consumers will buy the fresh vegetable. In the other hand, the consumer has not need to buy fresh vegetables from supermarket. The consumers in suburban town are able to buy fresh vegetables from local market in the morning instead of going to supermarket. This possibility has decline the degree of desire to the fresh vegetables.

What comes next is the wrong assumption that the people who dissatisfied with the fresh vegetables in supermarket will turn to grow vegetables by their own. We need to consider that why they bought vegetables in supermarket? They must have no sufficient time to by it somewhere else and how can he or she plant vegetable of their own? And this is not an alternative situation which means that they have to choose plant if they do not pleased with the food in supermarket. The owner lack of the consideration of many other kind of choices and possibilities.

Final flaw I want to discuss is the data provide as an evident that the sale amount of Great Garden. Great Garden is an gardening magazine and it does not totally contain the passages about how to plant vegetables. From a more seriously consideration, the sale volume may only indicate that part of local citizens are fund of do gardening. And I do not deny the possibility that some of them may have interest in growing vegetable but not completely. The result will be persuade if the magazine
is specialized in the growing techniques.

After the discussion about the three flows made by the owner of the Gardening Center, the action taken by them need to think over. With more strict consideration, the plan or decision to increase the profit will be practice and the on-the-spot investigation is essential before the formulation of the plan.

toywangUID: 2700880

不知道大家前面怎么改的，我也一下子理不清，
目前choice 小组还有四位同学
互改最开始的占楼改的方法，楼上的改楼下的，依次往下，每天12点之前交作文，虽然我今天没守时，不好意思~~~
可能前面有混乱的地方，我们QQ交流吧，大家把自己以前没有被改的题号记下来，组里联系一下~~~

xingfuhbjUID: 2769976

筒子们八好意思~
俺这两天非常屋漏偏逢连夜雨的病着了~
明天又得去上海比赛鸟~
这几天落下的作文可能会有点多~
不过俺都会回来补的~~~
虽然俺们组又退了俩~
但咋能坚持还是坚持着哈~！
加油~！

toywangUID: 2700880

argu 209 time : 45  words:

反驳：

111 no matter Pat or Rose ,we cannot owe the increase to their own individuals没有人可以孤立的看待事物、还有一个团队的合作

2 二者是在不同的领域一个是珠宝，一个是玩具。不得不承认在做对比的时候要考虑大环境的问题，珠宝行业和玩具行业的回报率不同

3 这样利润一定可以快速增长吗？补偿加两倍的薪酬已经增加了成本

According to the recommendation made by the HR manager of the Fancy Toy Company, the suggestion to change the leader in order to increase the profit is lack of the other factors. The thought that to blame all the failures to the leader is not across-the-aboard, in the same way, the success of a group cannot owe to the leader as well. If we accept this theory, we can analysis the situation in Toy Company easily and to deal with this efficiently.

What is the main mistake made by the manager is to blame the considerably fallen of profit to President Pat Salvo. As we all know, the success of a war is not only achieved by the leadership of general, but also the struggle of groups of soldiers. It is also practical in the analysis of the decrease of the profit. Without a efficient group of workers and an excellent cooperation among all the members, no matter how genius Pat Salvo is, she still cannot achieve the set goals or even make profit. So does this to the success of Straight Jewelry which is maximize use of everyone’s ability and find the valid way of synergy. under this circumstance, the only appointment of the president Rose Winnings will not change the situation instantly. So the proposal that only change the leaders without any other measures will not change the situation directly.

However, even we enlarge the role of leaders to the highest level, the manager still not consider the difference background of the two fields—toy industry and jewelry making. When we compare the turnover of two industries, the concern of the market circumstance cannot neglect. As we all know that the economic crisis has not passed away, the demand of toy may not as much as before, instead, the jewelry market maybe boost by many investors. What’s more the increase or decrease of profit is based on their standards, so the manager cannot directly judge which leader is better without the same requirements.

After the discussion about the external factors, the manager needs to count weather Fancy Toy Company will increase the profit instantly based on the cost. On one hand, the generous severance to Pat Salvo is not a small amount of money for the company which is decreased of the profit for three quarters. On the other hand, the double paid salary to Rose Winnings will also cost much more in the future if she accept the appointment. With the expenses made before any profit has been made, Fancy Toy Company will lack of circulating fund which will obstruct the transform of current status.

With the consideration of these issues before the recommendation, the HR manager will dawn another measure to solve the current problem of Toy Company. After realizing these flows, the manager needs to talk with Pat Salvo and the other workforce before make any efficient decision.

toywangUID: 2700880

arug 20 time: 50 min  words:  450

Logic line:

人口达到 100000

出租公司抬价==》限时出租数量==》减少总量==》事故降低50%

T岛的情况==》B岛的措施

反驳：

1 这个50%的预期目标只需要减少车辆就行了吗？如果不采取有效的措施，那么还是会高居不下，交通治理，道路通畅，设计

2 车辆的来源并非只有出租公司，因而，无法减少车辆总数

3二岛的情况不可相提并论，人口基数不一样，

From the letter appeared in Balmer Island Gazette, we can clear grasp the problems and the corresponding solutions. However, does the solution will solve the transportation’s problems and reach the goal that attains 50 percent in moped accidents? From my point of view, the only action that to raise the price to rent moped and bicycle will not reach the goal, in addition, actions from other aspects must keep in pace with if the goal is 50 percent.

To begin with, the assurance to attain 50 percent reduction in moped accident only by limiting the rental is effective. First we need to concern that does the mount of moped and bicycle is the only one factor lead to the accidents? Of course not, the current status of street may not up to the requirement, the traffic regulations may not strict enough, the traffic polices may not play the role to prevent the accidents. With the consideration of such complex elements, the limit of the amount of moped and bicycle will not useful except the improvement of all the elements will eventually decline the rate of accidents.

Even though we maximize the role of the number of moped and bicycle played in the process, the measure to raise the rental price from 30 per day to 50 per day cannot solve the problems as well. We can think about the situation from our daily lives, many families own their own vehicles no matter car and motorbike or moped and bicycle. For these people who have their own moped or bicycles will not influenced by the raise of the rental price. What’s more, if the rent amount of moped and bicycle is not very large before, the increase of price will have less function on the total amount.

What is the vital problem made by in the letter is the compare by the two island—Balmer Island and Torseau Island. Even the two places are both island but the local situation must not exactly the same. As the information provided at the beginning that the population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer, in contrast, the population in Torseau Island may just half of it. With such a huge basic number of citizens, the copy of the measures in other places will not fit for local circumstance.

The analysis of these factors above, we can find the mistakes made by the author and the improvement of the current traffic status. To be honestly, a well organized plan is essential instead of to pay all attention to the vehicles. Only under a effective plan, the goal to attain a 50 percent decline of traffic accident will realized quickly.

yuanlinqinggreUID: 2755904

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 593
TIME: 00:40:00
DATE: 2010-5-20 22:17:58

The editor, basing on the mere fact that 50 percent reduction in the moped accident was observed after the limits on moped rentals had carried out, implies that the limits which, he think, served to the decrease in T should be carried out in Balmer in order to reduce the number of moped accidents by 50 percent. Yet, the argument suffers from several unjustified assumptions and lacks the comparison with other alternatives, which render it unconvincing.

Firstly, drop in the moped accidents in the island of Torseau is little indication that limits on moped rentals is attributable to the decrease, since the author fails to exclude other possibilities. For that matter, it is entirely possible that some other factors, such as speed limits over mopeds, contributed to the reduction. Perhaps, driving over speed is the main reason for moped accidents, which is greatly reduced since the enforcement of the speed limits. Thus, the editor, without eliminating other possibilities for the reduction in the moped accidents in T, cannot confidently come to his justification that limits on moped rentals were responsible for the decrease in the last year.

Secondly, the ratiocination of the argument, even I concede that limits on moped rental were really effective in Torseau, suffers from the deficiency of failing to consider the difference between this two areas. Since differences between these two areas greatly affect the effectiveness of the limits, it is just as likely that bad road condition and volatile climate, to a large extent, led to moped accidents while limits on the rentals does little, if any, help to the reduction of the accidents. Or mopeds owned by residents in the island are mainly responsible for the mopeds accidents, while limits on the rentals contribute nothing to decrease the mopeds accidents which result from residents in the island. Either scenario, if true, would reasonable enough to weaken the effectiveness of the limits on moped rentals. Therefore, unless the author takes the differences between these two areas into consideration, I remain doubtful about the effectiveness of the limits.

Thirdly, the editor, even I grant that the limits will surely be effective towards reducing the number of mopeds accidents, fails to demonstrate that the limits will surely decrease the number of moped accidents by 50 percent and it is better than any other alternatives. Lacking statistical evidence that the limits is sufficient to reduce the amount of accidents by 50 percent, it is just as likely that increase in the number of population in Balmer largely weaken the effect of the limits, in which case the number of moped accidents may decrease ,however, far from 50 percent. Moreover, as the author provides no information about other alternatives, it is entirely possible that some other choices may be as effective as the limits while they are more efficient and also beneficial to the moped rental companies. If this is the case, the limits, which proposed by the editor, is therefore not necessary to achieve the reduction. Thus, until the author provide compelling evidence that the limits on moped rentals is both sufficient and indispensable to achieve 50 percent decrease in the number of moped accidents, I remain doubtful about the suggestion.

In sum, failing to compare the limits with other alternatives and consider the difference between these two islands, the author's deduction is unjustified as it stands while the article is lucid. The author, in odder to strengthen his argument, must compare the limits on moped rentals with other choices and take into account the differences between this two areas.

cynthia313UID: 2765794

argue209 by Cynthia
In this argument, the manager recommends that Fancy Toy Company should ask their president, Pat Salvo, for resignation, and appoint Rosa Winnings at the cost of double salary of Pat. Since the profits of the Fancy Toy Company have fallen considerably under the leadership of Pat, while Starlight Jewelry, the company which Rosa currently work at as its president, benefited dramatically over the past several years. This recommendation seems lucid and convincing at first glance, however is fraught of logical fallacies when thinking it over..

In the first place, the arguer unreasonably assumes that the fallen profits of Fancy Toy Company in the last three quarters of this year are due to the inefficient leading of Pat Salvo. Other factors are possibly responsible for the declining of the profits rather than Pat Salvo’s leading. Perhaps, it is the global financial crisis that causes the narrowing of market, which results the decrease of benefits. It is equally possible that the increase in price of primary material or risen of the employees’ salary which causes the cost of making toys increase, thus the profits would decline. So without ruling out such factors, one can not easily accept the recommendation of the arguer.

In the second place, granted that the declining of profits truly due to the inefficient leadership of Pat Salvo, still the recommendation that we should appoint Rosa Winnings is questionable. Firstly, the dramatically increasing profits of Starlight Jewelry might not due to the well leadership of Rosa. A company’s profits are decided by many other factors, such as economical environment, the market, and the self cost. Additionally, even if Rosa does do well as the president of Starlight Jewelry, there is still no evidence to justify she is also capable of the job in a toy company. What’s more, the arguer does not provide any information about other
competitors who might have the ability to take this job.

Finally, even if Rosa Winnings is the best choice for this position, there is no evidence which indicates that she would give up her present position in a well profitable company and have a new job in a toy company which she might not familiar with.

In sum, this recommendation is unacceptable for several logical flaws. To justify its reliability, the arguer should provide more evidence to support the assumption that the declining profits of Fancy Toy Company is truly due to the ineffective leadership of Pat Salvo rather than other possible factors. In addition, the arguer would have to provide direct evidence to justify Rosa Winnings is the best choice for the position and she would accept the appointment to be the president of Fancy Toy Company. Without these further details, the company should think twice before any decition.

cynthia313UID: 2765794

argue20 by cynthia
In this argument, the editor suggests the town council of Balmer Island to limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 to 30 per day each, to reduce the mopeds and pedestrians involved accidents. To justify his recommendation, the arguer lists the fact that the neighboring island of Torseau attains the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents by enforced similar limits on rentals. This letter seems lucid on the first glance, however is fraught of logical fallacies.

In the first place, the arguer assumes that it is the limit of mopeds renting which cause the declining of the number of mopeds and pedestrians in Toreau Island last year without ruling out other factors which might be responsible for this phenomenon. Population decreasing in Toreau Island last year might also lead to the number of accidents declining. Perhaps, a traffic safety education was conducted in Toreau Island last year, as a consequence of the education, people become more careful when walking or riding on the streets, which was responsible for the accidents’ reducing. In a word, the arguer fails to demonstrate the causal relationship between the limits on moped rentals and the 50 percent reduction of moped accidents.

In the second place, even if moped accidents of Toreau truly reduced 50 percent as a result of limiting mopeds renting, the arguer still commits the logical fallacy of false analogy. Without comparing the situation of the Balmer Island and Torseau Island, the arguer unreasonably assumes that the mopeds renting limit would reduce the mopeds and pedestrians involved accidents in Balmer Island as it was in Toreau Island last year. However, the situation of these two islands might different. It is possible that the majority of Balmer’s mopeds are owned by residents themselves rather than the rental companies of the moped and bicycle, while Toreau’s mopeds are almost belong to the rental companies. In this case, the renting limiting policy would obviously work in Toreau Island, but would fail in Balmer Island.

Finally, the necessity of the suggestion is also open to question. The mere fact that the population of Balmer Island increased to 100,000 during the summer month does not indicate the risen number of moped accidents, which need taking methods to change that situation. Perhaps, by limiting the mopeds renting, the number of mopeds involved accidents would truly decrease, but the cost might be the increasing of the car involved accidents, because residents of Balmer might force to travel by cars instead of mopeds.

In conclusion, this recommendation is not reasonable because of several logical flaws. The arguer should rule out other factors which might be responsible for the declining number of mopeds involved accidents after the limiting of the renting mopeds. In addition, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to demonstrate the limits of mopeds policy would work in Balmer as it was in Toreau. Moreover, the arguer must demonstrate the necessity of the suggestion and make sure there would be no bad effects caused by the conduction of the limiting renting mopeds policy.

cynthia313UID: 2765794

issue131 by Cynthia
It is acknowledged that arts are the great treasures of social civilization. They are the shining diamonds of human wisdom. Arts, which originate from ordinary life of human beings, are also seen as the recorder of history. Besides, arts as well as science largely promote social civilization pace. Although arts are of great importance in social civilization, the assertion that they reveal the hidden ideas and impulses of a society is still open to question.

First of all, since arts are stem from real life, they can reflect many aspects of social realities. A part of art works can reflect emotions of human beings, as well as the ideas of individuals. For instance, the novel Les Miserables by Victor Hugo created many characters which represent the miserable real life of that time and also reflects people’s desires of changing the situations of the society and the willing of living a better life, which promote the innovation of the society. Works of art, in this case, do reveal the hidden ideas and the impulses of the society. These kind of arts can struck our minds like the thunder, inspire our thoughts like the philosopher, bring us hope like the oasis, and at last result in the social progress.

However, not all the art works reveal social problems. The majority of arts merely reflect artists’ emotional feelings. For example, we can feel Van Gogh’s fervent attitude towards life through the hot color of his paintings, especially the famous one—Sunflower. Nevertheless, we can hardly find out any information about the social ideas and impulses from the painting. Moreover, there are some kind of arts, such as architectures, which have no potential to reveal social ideas and impulses because of their specifically forms.

Finally, arts are derived from real life and are added with artists’ emotions and interests, which decide the inner meanings of art works. Since different artists are tend to concentrate on different aspects of the real life, only when an artist is focus on the hidden social ideas and impulses can he/she create a great work which can reveal social hidden values. Otherwise, we can only feel artists’ emotional feelings and at most be aware of other aspects of the social reality which the artists care about.

To conclude, since there are a ton of art works in history, and the forms of art works are also diverse, the squarely claiming that arts reveal the hidden ideas and the impulses of the society is exaggerated. Arts, which are stem from social reality, are added with the interests and emotions of artists, which decide the hidden meanings of the works of art. Only when the artists are focus on the people’s inner thinking and the impulses of the society and choose suitable forms of arts can they create works which reveal hidden ideas and impulses of the society.