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[url]https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=467915&extra=page%3D1[/url]
argument
觉得组长挑的这篇a有点狠,不好写
Argumnet 47:
47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
先理一下思路,看得有点乱,非常的不懂
Phenomena: earth suddenly became cold
Reason: dimming of the sun
Connection: dust cloud
two relevant causes: a volcanic eruption
a meteorite colliding (with no evidence of the necessary flash so this cause is passed)
终于明白啰嗦的啥 faint
窃以为攻击的关键在于reason;(叫什么来着?釜底抽薪?) 第二位攻击点是connection
The arguer’s reasoning seems to be quite sound. According to the analysis, the reason of temperature reducing during the mid-sixth century is that a volcanic eruption created a large dust cloud which prevented enough sunlight to reach the earth. To support this conclusion, the arguer cited several relevant records. However, after a further analysis, I find this argument suffers from several flaws.
The most important weakness of this argument is that the arguer failed to establish a corresponding relationship between the dimming of the sun and the coldness of the earth. Among the many reasons which can cause the significant coldness of earth, the most important one is that the climate has its own rule of temperature changing. Astronomy study tells us that the earth’s temperature is related to its location in Milky Way galaxy, which also explains the existence of ice age. It is highly possible that the earth was in its ice age in the mid-sixth century so that the temperature was naturally to be extremely low. Another possibility is that the earth’s ability of holding heat decreased, as a result, the temperature of earth was certainly to be low at that time. Therefore, the arguer failed to rule out many other causes of cold temperature.
Moreover, if we admit that the cold temperature was attributed to the dimming of the sun, the arguer also failed to prove that it was because of a dust cloud caused by a volcanic eruption or a meteorite colliding. There are two chief factors which related to this issue, one is the earth’s ability of receiving sunlight, the other is the sun’s ability of emitting light. As for the former, a dust of cloud is only one option, other options such as the aerosphere was thicker than any other time of history, some kind of a particular chemical substance which absorbed more sunlight also cannot be ignored. As for the latter, the sun’s ability of emitting light might be influenced by some activities so that it could not emit as many lights as before. In brief, the arguer cannot prove that the dimming of the sun was because of the dust cloud caused by a volcanic eruption.
Furthermore, the records cited in the argument cannot serve as a strong proof for the conclusion. The accounts was found in Asia and Europe, they cannot prove the cold weather of the earth. Also, the arguer mentioned that no extant historical records of the time mention a flash of a meteorite colliding. This is not equal to there were no such records. It is quite likely that the historians just failed to find out the records.
To sum up, after pointing out so many flaws in the argument, the conclusion cannot be relied on. Before any complements added to it, this argument is not well demonstrated.
[[i] 本帖最后由 nostrum 于 2006-5-24 00:06 编辑 [/i]] |
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